Dalton Pence
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 117
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
K%23.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 82 | 327 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 58% | 2.7 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 2.73 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 82 | 327 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 58% | 2.7 | 31.5% | 8.3% | 23.2% | 1.5% | 2.73 | 2.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 14 | 14 | 71 | 289 | 80 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 2.54 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 61 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 133 | 549 | 141 | 48 | 14 | — | — | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 4.08 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 64 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 65 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 56 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 176 | 744 | 182 | 73 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 83 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 32 | 153 | 616 | 141 | 55 | 15 | 71% | 3.4 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 2.64 | 3.59 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 42 | 200 | 803 | 184 | 71 | 19 | 71% | 3.4 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 2.64 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dalton Pence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.15 | 24.4% | 14.5% | 191 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 92 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 86 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 85 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 82 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 82 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 82 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 81 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 81 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 81 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 80 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 80 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 79 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 79 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 79 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 79 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 78 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.10 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .299 | 5.99 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.89 | 3.10 | 271 | 78 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 78 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 78 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 1.05 | 4.21 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |