Dalton Pence
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
+0.9
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%14.0%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 31 | 18 | 82 | 327 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 2.73 | 3.35 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 2 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 15 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 81 | 33 | 9 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 92 | 383 | 96 | 34 | 9 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.73 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 101 | 38 | 11 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 115 | 41 | 13 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 123 | 43 | 14 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 124 | 523 | 126 | 44 | 14 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 124 | 523 | 126 | 45 | 15 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 121 | 511 | 122 | 44 | 14 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.11 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 118 | 43 | 14 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 113 | 479 | 112 | 42 | 14 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 107 | 41 | 14 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 100 | 40 | 14 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 94 | 39 | 13 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 87 | 38 | 13 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 80 | 36 | 13 | 21.7% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 20 | 92 | 363 | 93 | 32 | 6 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 2.63 | 3.01 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 43 | 200 | 786 | 201 | 69 | 13 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 2.63 | 3.01 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dalton Pence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.04 | 24.0% | 15.3% | 335 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 93 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 92 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 91 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 90 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 89 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 89 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 88 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.34 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.02 | 280 | 88 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 88 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 87 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 87 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 86 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 86 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 86 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .349 | 4.13 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.40 | 3.93 | 264 | 86 |
| Gage Jump L 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 85 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 85 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 85 |
| Ben Shields L 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.4 | $14M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.2 | $13M | +$7M |
| Totals | $15M | $89M | +$73M | ||