Dalton Pence — OGILVIE

Dalton Pence P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 115

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%23.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD3540

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.73	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.73	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	31.5%	8.3%	23.2%	1.5%	2.73	2.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	24	22	114	473	117	44	11	92%	4.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.8%	2.44	4.16	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	24	22	114	473	117	44	11	92%	4.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.8%	2.44	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TEX	5	5	24	98	30	5	3	100%	4.9	30.6%	5.1%	25.5%	3.1%	2.59	2.84	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TEX	11	10	55	232	61	22	6	91%	5.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.6%	2.77	3.50	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	TEX	8	7	35	143	26	17	2	88%	4.3	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	1.4%	1.82	3.84	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	5	22	5	2	1	100%	5.2	23.6%	10.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.28	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	120	495	122	46	12	—	—	24.7%	9.3%	15.3%	2.3%	2.52	4.16	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	115	485	116	48	13	100%	5.7	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.18	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	116	491	119	47	13	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	2.7%	4.17	4.13	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	116	491	119	46	13	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	2.7%	4.14	4.11	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	114	483	117	46	13	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.4%	14.8%	2.8%	4.15	4.16	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	111	469	113	45	14	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.24	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	106	448	107	44	14	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.30	4.37	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	100	421	99	43	14	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.55	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	93	393	91	41	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	10.4%	12.7%	3.5%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	86	363	82	39	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	3.7%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	50	211	51	21	6	100%	5.6	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.29	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	78	329	80	31	10	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	95	37	11	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	2.9%	4.25	4.22	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	98	414	100	39	12	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	14.8%	3.0%	4.26	4.27	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	99	418	101	40	13	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	97	410	98	40	13	100%	6.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.3%	4.42	4.49	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	91	39	14	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	3.5%	4.58	4.68	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	87	367	85	38	14	100%	6.2	23.2%	10.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.77	4.89	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	78	37	14	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	4.0%	4.99	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	773	3264	777	322	107	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.3%	4.47	4.13	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	83	28	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.3%	4.47	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		55	40	197	800	172	77	19	73%	3.6	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.4%	2.56	3.83	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	41	200	814	175	78	20	73%	3.6	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.4%	2.56	3.83	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Pence (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.6%	10.3%	2.7%	—	4.14	24.2%	14.6%	347	-0.14	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	91
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	84
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	81
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	81
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	80
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	80
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	78
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	78
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	78
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	77
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	77
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	76
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	102	23.8%	9.9%	1.15	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32