Dalton Pence

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#457ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	31	18	82	2.73	2.37	31.5%	8.3%	—	K 23.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.36
2026	23	MIX3 levels	25	23	118	2.51	3.68	24.9%	9.8%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBTEX	1	1	1	4.57	4.57	20.5%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTEX	7	7	39	4.61	4.58	21.1%	9.2%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTEX	9	9	55	4.56	4.54	21.3%	9.0%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 6.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 24) · Brian Holmes (age 24) · Hayden Mullins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%20.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.73	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.73	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	31.5%	8.3%	23.2%	1.5%	2.73	2.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	118	490	122	48	13	92%	4.7	20.2%	10.0%	10.3%	3.1%	2.51	4.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	118	490	122	48	13	92%	4.7	20.2%	10.0%	10.3%	3.1%	2.51	4.37	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	118	490	122	48	13	92%	4.7	24.9%	9.8%	15.1%	2.7%	2.51	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TEX	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	88	371	78	34	11	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.46	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	83	350	75	32	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.42	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	79	335	72	30	10	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.45	4.45	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	75	318	67	29	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.50	4.53	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	294	62	28	9	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.66	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	63	266	55	26	9	100%	6.3	20.7%	9.7%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.84	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	56	236	48	24	9	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.04	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	39	165	35	15	5	100%	5.6	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.58	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	55	232	50	21	7	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.56	4.54	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	56	24	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.2%	4.57	4.57	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	63	266	57	24	9	100%	6.3	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.66	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	54	24	9	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.5%	4.73	4.79	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	57	241	50	23	9	100%	5.7	20.7%	9.7%	10.9%	3.7%	4.88	4.98	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	51	215	44	22	8	100%	6.4	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.9%	5.07	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	388	1638	344	154	56	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.72	4.38	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	79	29	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.72	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		56	41	201	817	177	80	22	73%	3.6	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	2.6%	2.60	3.97	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	41	200	814	176	80	22	73%	3.6	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	2.6%	2.60	3.97	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 55 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.33 (+0.83)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.29%	—	×0.810	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×1.100	10.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 39 IPFIP 4.50 → 4.70 (+0.20)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.38%	—	×0.860	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.12%	—	×0.900	11.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.50 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 24 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.95 (+1.11)K% 30.6% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.770	23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.150	5.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.06%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 46 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.57 (+0.70)K% 27.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.57%	—	×0.770	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.65%	—	×1.150	9.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.215	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 36 IPFIP 2.92 → 4.39 (+1.47)K% 36.6% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.62%	—	×0.740	27.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.180	9.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.037	×1.300	4.42%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Pence (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.44	21.3%	12.1%	250	-0.13	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	89
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	86
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	86
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	85
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	85
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	81
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	81
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	79
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	78
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	78
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	78
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	77
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	77
Ixan Henderson L 2024 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP-	3.77	18.1%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.50	3.27	236	77
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	74	21.0%	9.4%	1.20	4.57
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Joe Boever ('85-'96, 4 WAR*)	3.8	84	20.9%*	10.0%*	1.14*	4.15*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*