Bryan ArendtC Stockton Ports
Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
2026 ROS PROJECTION200 act + 133 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .272 / .302
PA133
HR3
K%29
BB%7
BABIP255
ISO109
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -16.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-17BATRUN: +1.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +6.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+6POSREP: +9.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.40.60.80.90.80.70.50.20.0+$36M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT35
scouting grade only
POWER50
scouting grade only
EYE52
scouting grade only
SPEED52
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.5$1M+$0.7M
2034Arb-1$0.4M+0.2$0.4M+$0.3M
2035Arb-2$0.4M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $5M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202522 AStockton Ports — 7162 7101 5263 00 113214177392 65171 377 178 -6 — — — — — —
202522 AStockton Ports — 7159 8101 8203 00 136271203475 68184 2811 234 37 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD23 AOAK — 200173 32506 15626 60 185273318591 133236 318 250 49 -11 +1 +0 +4 +6 -0.1
YTD23 AOAK — 200166 37606 22456 60 223335367703 145258 2211 313 98 -1 +1 +0 +4 +6 1.0
ROS23 AOAK 0% 133119 23403 10393 30 193272302574 109262 297 270 65 -5 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.1
ROS23 MLBOAK 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 259 —— 253 52 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL23 AOAK — 200174 32506 15626 60 184273316589 132234 318 250 49 -11 +1 +0 +4 +6 -0.1
TOT23 AOAK — 333292 55909 251019 90 188273311584 123244 308 258 55 -17 +2 +0 +6 +9 0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724 MLBOAK 30% 281253 52917 21805 51 206280332612 126264 287 275 68 -10 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.4
202825 MLBOAK 44% 349313 641119 27976 71 204280332613 128266 288 280 72 -11 +1 +0 +6 +10 0.6
202926 MLBOAK 51% 392353 7413210 301086 81 210283343626 133268 288 283 75 -11 +1 +0 +7 +11 0.8
203027 MLBOAK 52% 409368 7713211 321136 81 209283345628 136268 288 284 76 -11 +1 +0 +7 +12 0.9
203128 MLBOAK 53% 418375 7914211 331167 81 211287347633 136268 288 283 75 -12 +1 -1 +7 +12 0.8
203229 MLBOAK 53% 415372 7813211 331167 81 210286344630 134267 288 281 73 -13 +1 -1 +7 +12 0.7
203330 MLBOAK 52% 411369 7513110 331166 81 203279325605 122265 288 278 71 -13 +1 -2 +7 +12 0.5
203431 MLBOAK 52% 387347 7012110 311106 71 202279329607 127263 288 274 68 -14 +1 -3 +7 +11 0.2
203532 MLBOAK 52% 359322 651119 291035 61 202278326604 124259 298 269 64 -15 +1 -4 +6 +10 -0.1
202724 MLBOAK 30% 8578 15302 6241 20 192259308567 115262 287 260 57 -4 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.0
202825 MLBOAK 44% 154139 29514 12432 31 209281345626 137264 288 266 61 -7 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.1
202926 MLBOAK 51% 199179 37615 15553 41 207279335614 128266 288 269 64 -8 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.1
203027 MLBOAK 52% 214192 41716 17593 41 214288354642 141266 288 270 65 -9 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.2
203128 MLBOAK 53% 223199 42716 18624 41 211290347636 136265 288 269 64 -9 +0 -0 +4 +6 0.1
203229 MLBOAK 53% 218196 41716 17613 41 209282347629 138264 288 267 63 -9 +0 -1 +4 +6 0.1
203330 MLBOAK 52% 214192 39715 17603 41 203278328606 125263 288 264 61 -10 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.0
203431 MLBOAK 52% 201180 36615 16573 41 200276328604 128261 288 261 58 -10 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.1
203532 MLBOAK 52% 186166 32514 15543 31 193272307579 114257 298 255 54 -10 +0 -2 +3 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 16941522 31253843 13347525 328 205280335615 130266 288 265 61 -75 +3 -5 +30 +48 0.1
/ 162G— — 650584 11920316 5118210 123 204280330610 127265 288 265 61 -29 +1 -2 +12 +18 0.0
Career— — 36253253 6641141392 284102460 689 204280332612 128265 288 277 70 -124 +10 -10 +65 +103 4.4
/ 162G— — 650583 11820216 5118411 122 202279326605 123264 288 277 70 -22 +2 -2 +12 +18 0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202522 AStockton Ports — 7159 8101 8203 00 136271203475 68184 2811 234 37 -5 +0 — — +2 -0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA
83,2679864221297378+16+3611.011.4
/1626642013+3.2+7.32.2pk7: 12
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA
92,7834039246289354+28+195.55.6
/162664109+6.7+4.51.3pk7: 6
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons
51,8294734207279337+33+202.72.6
/1626641712+11.9+7.31.0pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Bryan Arendt (OGILVIE) 23 30→35 45→50 47→52 52 188/273/311 123244 99 30% 8% 55 +0.0 ————————— —————————
✕Zack Short
2018 · A 		23 42→38 46→50 48→45 53 208/301/343 135264 1311 25% 11% 82 +0.5 198/289/339 141285 148 33% 10% 77 +0.1 175/277/32414824417634%11%65-0.5
✕Sicnarf Loopstok
2016 · A 		23 40→38 48→55 53→50 39 206/266/349 143284 169 32% 6% 69 -0.4 214/278/357 143300 1610 33% 6% 76 +0.1 212/284/37516329120933%7%83+0.3
✕Jeferson Morales
2023 · A 		24 38→45 47→50 49→50 43 195/276/331 137262 149 30% 7% 69 -0.4 215/289/349 134277 139 26% 7% 79 +0.3 221/296/35713627513823%7%81+0.2
✕Kendall Simmons
2023 · A 		23 36 47→50 49→50 38 189/255/325 136272 1510 35% 6% 59 -1.1 206/270/351 145304 169 36% 6% 72 -0.2 198/264/34714929417737%6%65-0.2
✕Andrew Susac
2013 · A 		23 42→40 44→50 46→30 45 208/280/323 115292 114 31% 8% 68 -0.5 218/291/365 147292 173 30% 8% 84 +0.6 217/295/37716028319129%9%86+0.4
✕Alex Isola
2021 · A 		23 46→45 45→50 49→40 44 227/279/348 122288 128 26% 6% 74 -0.1 217/284/369 152276 204 28% 8% 82 +0.5 213/284/36114826720227%8%77+0.1
✕Bryan Holaday
2011 · A 		23 41 44→45 47→40 42 201/283/317 116296 125 34% 8% 69 -0.4 206/259/296 90269 86 25% 5% 51 -1.7 223/289/35313025614219%7%76+0.0
✕Jason Lopez
2021 · A 		23 40 44→55 46→45 37 202/247/323 121282 127 32% 5% 53 -1.5 194/256/297 103298 1010 36% 7% 50 -1.7 163/228/25491247101036%8%25-0.9
✕Rodolfo Durán
2021 · A 		23 39 47→55 47→40 36 204/241/332 128275 164 32% 4% 53 -1.5 201/241/337 136264 154 29% 5% 54 -1.4 225/266/38616127619326%4%75-0.0
✕Christopher Familia
2023 · A 		23 39 45→55 47→45 45 200/277/324 124256 138 27% 7% 68 -0.5 216/273/378 162292 204 32% 6% 80 +0.4 212/264/39618427826033%5%76+0.0
✕Marcus Greene Jr.
2018 · A 		23 39 47→50 42→40 41 202/261/332 130266 154 30% 6% 63 -0.9 213/265/319 106304 115 32% 6% 60 -1.0 194/242/263692928035%6%31-0.9
✕Jake Rogers
2018 · A 		23 41→40 43→60 47→45 41 202/262/316 114279 910 30% 6% 58 -1.2 196/266/342 146271 177 33% 7% 68 -0.5 213/288/42921627131133%8%98+0.8
✕Kevin Padlo
2019 · A 		23 35→40 45→55 45→50 43 180/260/303 123268 127 36% 9% 55 -1.4 206/284/377 171294 209 35% 9% 85 +0.7 195/265/371176262221234%8%73-0.1
✕Miguel Amaya
2022 · AA 		23 44→42 44→50 50→40 49 214/303/331 117278 117 26% 9% 81 +0.4 223/308/361 138300 155 29% 8% 91 +1.1 228/299/36814027116122%7%86+0.3
✕Ian Rice
2017 · A 		23 43→39 47→50 43→30 48 212/291/346 133289 144 30% 9% 79 +0.3 204/289/349 145281 183 32% 10% 79 +0.3 185/276/32013525318033%10%64-0.4
✕Kyler Fedko
2023 · A 		23 43→42 43→50 51→55 47 212/285/327 114283 1010 27% 8% 71 -0.3 202/288/323 121269 1214 28% 10% 72 -0.2 197/277/356159247212329%9%74-0.0
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt
2023 · A 		23 42 40→55 50→40 43 203/279/294 91279 76 28% 7% 60 -1.0 209/281/354 145278 184 31% 7% 78 +0.2 186/269/36117523526033%7%79+0.1
✕Tyler Kolodny
2011 · A 		23 40→36 50→45 51→50 40 209/279/369 160275 189 30% 6% 80 +0.4 213/288/327 114289 1010 28% 6% 73 -0.1 210/300/2958527861024%6%67-0.2
✕Nick Hutchins
2019 · A 		23 43 45→50 47→40 39 213/270/345 132297 123 31% 6% 69 -0.4 207/248/306 99290 85 30% 4% 49 -1.8 193/221/277842687430%2%27-1.6
✕Chase Strumpf
2021 · A 		23 44→36 42→50 49→45 42 208/284/314 106306 87 33% 7% 68 -0.5 195/290/334 139313 155 39% 10% 76 +0.1 179/286/33515628719441%11%72-0.1