Bryan Arendt — OGILVIE

Bryan ArendtC Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION300 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP257

ISO119

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Stockton Ports	—	71	59	8	1	0	1	8	20	3	0	0	136	271	203	475	68	184	28	11	234	44	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	71	61	7	1	0	1	6	26	3	0	0	115	229	180	409	66	172	37	8	180	8	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	71	61	7	1	0	1	6	26	3	0	0	115	229	180	409	66	176	37	8	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	—	71	59	8	1	0	1	8	20	3	0	0	136	271	203	475	68	184	28	11	234	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	71	62	7	1	0	1	6	26	3	0	0	113	229	177	406	65	172	37	8	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	71	62	7	1	0	1	6	26	3	0	0	113	229	177	406	65	172	37	8	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	OAK	—	300	263	43	7	0	7	22	101	8	8	1	163	249	270	519	106	224	34	7	230	42	-21	+1	+0	+5	+6	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	ROK RAW	OAK	—	57	45	12	1	0	0	10	13	1	3	0	267	411	289	700	22	364	23	18	332	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A RAW	OAK	—	118	99	22	5	0	6	9	26	5	3	0	222	319	455	773	232	225	22	8	329	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	OAK	—	125	109	18	3	0	2	13	35	2	2	1	165	266	248	514	83	219	28	10	243	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	OAK	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		252	33	11	258	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	OAK	—	309	271	44	7	0	7	23	104	8	8	1	162	248	266	514	103	223	34	7	230	42	-21	+1	+0	+6	+7	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	30%	278	251	50	9	1	7	21	80	4	5	1	199	272	327	598	127	256	29	8	266	66	-11	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	44%	346	311	62	11	1	9	27	98	5	7	1	199	274	328	602	129	259	28	8	272	70	-12	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	51%	390	351	71	13	1	10	30	109	6	8	2	202	276	330	607	128	261	28	8	275	72	-13	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	408	367	73	13	1	10	32	114	6	8	2	199	274	322	596	123	261	28	8	277	73	-13	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	417	374	75	14	1	10	34	117	6	8	2	201	278	324	601	123	261	28	8	276	73	-14	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	414	372	73	13	1	10	33	117	6	8	2	196	273	317	590	121	260	28	8	274	71	-14	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	411	369	73	13	1	10	33	117	6	8	2	198	275	320	594	122	258	28	8	271	69	-15	+1	-2	+7	+9	0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	30%	84	77	15	3	0	2	6	24	1	2	0	195	262	312	574	117	261	29	7	257	66	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	44%	153	138	28	5	1	4	12	43	2	3	1	203	276	341	617	138	264	28	8	263	70	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	51%	198	178	37	7	1	5	15	56	3	4	1	208	281	343	623	135	266	28	8	266	72	-7	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	214	192	39	7	1	5	17	60	3	4	1	203	278	328	606	125	266	28	8	268	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	222	199	41	8	1	5	18	62	3	4	1	206	282	332	613	126	266	28	8	267	73	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	218	195	39	7	1	5	18	62	3	4	1	200	278	323	601	123	265	28	8	265	71	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	214	192	39	7	1	5	17	61	3	4	1	203	278	328	606	125	263	29	8	262	69	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1303	1171	238	44	6	31	103	368	18	25	6	203	278	330	608	127	266	28	8	265	69	-45	+3	-2	+23	+28	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	118	22	3	15	51	184	9	12	3	202	276	327	603	125	265	28	8	265	69	-22	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2744	2464	485	87	7	67	217	781	42	52	12	197	273	319	593	123	257	28	8	271	69	-92	+6	-4	+48	+58	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	116	21	2	16	51	185	10	12	3	199	274	324	598	125	259	28	8	271	69	-22	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.0	1,304	32	25	202	275	329	+23	+12	1.7	1.7
/162	664	16	13	+11.9	+6.1	0.9	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Arendt (OGILVIE)	23	26→31	42→47	47→52	52	187/263/298	112	252	3	3	30%	7%	61	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	208/299/335	127	266	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	198/288/331	133	281	13	8	31%	10%	77	-0.3	175/276/313	138	241	16	6	32%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→37	49→50	53→50	39	207/268/353	146	287	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.5	208/273/341	133	295	14	10	33%	6%	74	-0.6	202/274/346	144	284	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→55	47→45	42	204/268/326	123	280	11	10	30%	7%	68	-1.0	194/266/335	141	268	16	7	32%	8%	70	-0.9	216/279/422	206	274	28	2	32%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→38	43→50	45→30	45	204/279/315	111	288	11	4	31%	9%	70	-0.9	217/292/358	141	289	16	3	29%	9%	84	+0.2	217/296/371	154	282	18	1	28%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	42	204/265/335	132	265	15	4	29%	7%	69	-0.9	214/269/319	105	302	10	5	31%	6%	66	-1.1	199/250/262	63	298	6	0	34%	6%	42	-0.9
✕Tyler Kolodny 2011 · A	23	40→36	49→45	51→50	40	206/276/359	153	273	16	9	30%	6%	79	-0.2	209/284/321	112	285	10	10	29%	6%	74	-0.6	205/292/288	83	272	7	10	25%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Dustin Garneau 2011 · A	23	45→39	41→50	47→45	44	218/280/324	106	288	8	6	26%	7%	72	-0.7	198/268/331	133	235	13	5	21%	8%	70	-0.9	171/262/344	173	215	21	1	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→37	41→50	49→45	42	208/284/313	105	305	8	7	32%	7%	71	-0.8	197/291/331	134	305	14	5	37%	10%	79	-0.2	181/287/328	147	281	17	4	38%	11%	74	-0.4
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	38	45→50	47→30	44	190/278/314	124	278	13	2	34%	9%	70	-0.8	197/273/328	131	280	15	3	33%	8%	71	-0.8	180/256/302	122	254	15	0	34%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	43	40→50	50→40	42	206/280/300	94	283	7	6	28%	6%	67	-1.1	205/276/339	134	277	16	4	31%	6%	74	-0.5	180/260/332	152	234	22	0	33%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Bryan Holaday 2011 · A	23	42	42→45	47→40	42	201/282/303	102	295	9	5	33%	8%	69	-0.9	209/262/295	86	270	7	6	24%	5%	58	-1.7	220/288/344	124	255	13	2	19%	7%	76	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	39	47→50	47→45	36	206/242/334	128	274	16	4	31%	4%	59	-1.6	200/240/330	130	259	14	4	28%	5%	58	-1.7	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Adam Zebrowski 2023 · A	22	41→35	45→50	50→40	46	202/281/326	123	286	12	5	32%	9%	73	-0.6	186/249/301	115	286	13	3	38%	7%	55	-1.9	188/241/319	130	273	18	2	37%	5%	53	-1.3
✕Aramis Garcia 2016 · A	23	42→41	46→50	45	42	213/271/338	125	281	15	3	30%	7%	72	-0.7	215/261/345	130	289	15	3	30%	5%	70	-0.9	213/254/350	137	283	17	0	31%	4%	65	-0.7
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	40→35	42→45	49→40	44	198/269/304	106	269	10	4	29%	7%	63	-1.3	179/252/275	96	301	10	4	41%	8%	51	-2.3	159/236/248	88	274	11	3	43%	8%	37	-2.3
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/349	122	287	12	8	25%	6%	76	-0.4	217/284/360	143	275	18	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	214/284/354	140	266	19	2	26%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Scott Manea 2019 · A	23	43→42	46→45	46→30	43	218/292/349	131	266	13	3	23%	6%	83	+0.1	212/292/340	128	277	15	3	28%	7%	81	-0.1	189/280/292	103	266	12	0	31%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	42→50	51→55	47	210/284/319	109	280	9	10	27%	8%	72	-0.7	203/288/320	117	266	12	14	26%	10%	74	-0.5	197/276/341	144	245	18	22	27%	9%	73	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps