Luke Davis

C Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 24 S/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	A+PHI	132	.143/.364/.204	2	0	28	—	.124/.250/.177
2025	22	APHI	113	.195/.394/.280	1	0	64	—	.169/.321/.247
2026	23	A+PHI	184	.205/.370/.342	4	2	51	—	.168/.272/.286
2026	23	INTLScottsdale Sc…	31	.318/.516/.409	0	1	178	—
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBPHI	1	.177/.288/.280	0	0	64	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBPHI	62	.181/.291/.290	1	1	67	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBPHI	129	.185/.292/.297	3	2	69	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Chase%99

BB%95

Whiff%71

Z-Con%60

wRC+51

wOBA46

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsMichael Papierski (age 23) · Daniel Vellojin (age 24) · Jose Herrera (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .288 / .280

PA1

HR0

K%29

BB%12

BABIP241

ISO102

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE68

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	132	98	14	0	0	2	33	27	1	0	0	143	364	204	568	61	174	20	25	294	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	113	82	16	4	0	1	25	23	2	0	0	195	394	280	675	85	242	20	22	319	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	42	30	8	2	0	2	12	7	0	0	0	267	476	533	1.010	267	286	17	29	446	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	184	146	30	6	1	4	38	48	0	2	0	205	370	342	712	137	277	26	21	333	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	31	22	7	2	0	0	9	5	0	1	0	318	516	409	925	91	412	16	29	431	178	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	132	113	14	0	0	2	18	35	1	0	0	124	250	177	427	53	159	27	14	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	113	89	15	4	0	1	18	29	2	0	0	169	321	247	568	79	209	26	16	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	42	34	6	1	0	2	8	10	0	0	0	176	333	382	716	206	214	24	19	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	184	161	27	5	1	4	23	63	0	2	0	168	272	286	557	118	236	34	12	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	287	236	35	5	0	4	44	75	3	0	0	148	290	220	510	72	193	26	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	287	210	38	6	0	5	70	57	3	0	0	181	392	281	673	100	217	20	24	326	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	215	188	31	6	1	4	27	74	0	3	0	165	270	271	541	106	245	34	13	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	215	168	37	8	1	4	47	53	0	3	0	220	391	351	742	131	297	25	22	348	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	287	238	35	5	0	4	44	75	3	0	0	147	290	218	508	71	187	26	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	215	186	31	6	1	4	27	74	0	3	0	167	270	274	544	108	236	34	13	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	287	238	35	5	0	4	44	75	3	0	0	147	290	218	508	71	187	26	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	215	186	31	6	1	4	27	74	0	3	0	167	270	274	544	108	236	34	13	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	234	200	36	7	1	4	30	69	2	3	1	175	287	275	562	100	241	29	13	263	64	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	177	288	280	568	103	241	0	0	265	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	30%	206	177	32	6	1	4	26	60	1	3	1	180	289	285	575	105	244	29	13	267	67	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	44%	291	251	46	9	1	5	36	83	2	4	1	183	291	292	583	109	246	29	12	270	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	336	290	53	10	1	6	41	96	2	4	1	185	292	295	587	110	248	29	12	272	70	-12	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	52%	365	315	59	11	1	7	44	104	3	3	1	187	291	296	587	110	250	28	12	272	70	-13	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	376	326	60	11	1	7	44	107	3	2	1	187	290	296	585	109	250	28	12	271	69	-14	+0	-1	+7	+8	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	382	331	61	11	1	7	45	110	3	1	1	184	286	288	573	104	248	29	12	266	66	-15	-0	-2	+7	+8	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	30%	62	54	9	2	0	1	8	18	0	1	0	181	291	290	581	109	244	29	13	270	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	44%	129	111	22	4	1	3	16	37	1	2	0	185	292	297	590	113	247	29	12	273	69	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	165	143	27	5	1	3	20	47	1	2	1	187	293	301	594	114	249	28	12	274	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	52%	188	162	31	6	1	4	23	53	1	2	1	188	292	302	594	114	250	28	12	274	70	-7	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	194	168	32	6	1	4	23	55	1	1	0	189	291	301	592	113	251	28	12	273	69	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	197	171	33	6	1	4	23	56	1	1	0	185	287	293	580	107	248	28	12	268	66	-8	+0	-1	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	935	809	154	29	5	19	113	266	5	9	2	190	293	309	602	119	255	28	12	272	65	-35	+1	-2	+17	+20	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	106	20	3	13	79	185	3	6	1	189	291	304	596	116	253	28	12	272	65	-24	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2595	2232	398	73	8	46	324	749	18	22	6	178	287	280	568	102	242	29	12	265	65	-79	+1	-4	+37	+45	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	559	100	18	2	12	81	188	5	6	2	179	289	283	571	104	242	29	12	265	65	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Lou Criger'01-'12 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,522 PA	3.8	2,522	6	31	203*	288*	330*	+44	-1	3.8	4.2
/162	664	2	8	+11.6	-0.3	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	935	18	8	186	287	294	+17	+12	0.8	0.8
/162	664	12	6	+11.9	+8.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Davis (OGILVIE)	24	35	38	44	68	174/285/273	99	241	2	2	29%	13%	64	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	37→45	39→40	47→40	54	180/284/263	83	241	7	6	26%	11%	61	-1.5	193/282/279	86	272	8	4	29%	10%	63	-1.3	203/293/298	95	263	9	0	25%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Daniel Vellojin 2024 · AA	24	39	43→45	45	49	192/277/302	110	267	11	6	30%	10%	66	-1.1	177/253/266	89	250	8	6	31%	8%	49	-2.4	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A	24	44	40	47→40	51	210/290/306	96	280	8	5	26%	10%	72	-0.7	223/296/316	93	296	9	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	220/296/301	80	288	8	3	24%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Marcus Littlewood 2016 · AA	24	39	45	46→45	47	200/265/319	119	254	12	5	26%	8%	65	-1.2	211/267/316	105	279	10	5	26%	7%	64	-1.3	200/256/292	92	266	8	2	27%	7%	53	-1.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	42	36→30	46→40	55	197/296/268	72	273	3	7	26%	12%	66	-1.1	193/287/268	75	277	5	7	29%	11%	62	-1.4	157/268/213	56	230	5	4	30%	12%	43	-0.7
✕Quincy McAfee 2022 · AA	24	42	43→45	48→45	50	206/300/320	113	269	10	10	25%	9%	79	-0.2	193/276/313	120	251	12	8	27%	8%	69	-0.9	178/260/298	120	224	14	8	26%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Trent Woodward 2015 · A	23	43	41→45	47→30	47	205/283/307	102	276	7	6	27%	8%	70	-0.9	218/285/307	89	309	7	4	29%	8%	70	-0.9	217/287/303	86	307	8	1	30%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→41	40	49→50	53	207/294/304	97	258	7	13	22%	10%	73	-0.6	215/293/305	90	277	7	10	23%	9%	72	-0.7	208/294/273	65	268	4	6	22%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Chris Berset 2012 · A	24	42	38→40	42→40	51	198/289/279	80	256	5	6	23%	9%	65	-1.2	200/272/290	90	244	8	4	20%	8%	61	-1.5	189/258/268	79	226	7	1	19%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Zach Morgan 2024 · A	24	43	41→45	50	48	209/279/310	101	279	8	7	27%	9%	68	-1.0	202/272/291	89	258	8	8	23%	8%	61	-1.5	192/265/268	76	237	8	7	21%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Patrick Bailey 2023 · A	24	40→49	46→45	47→45	47	200/279/329	129	274	13	5	31%	9%	73	-0.6	227/289/345	118	302	12	5	27%	8%	80	-0.2	231/291/343	112	305	11	4	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Ryan Ortiz 2013 · AA	25	41	43→45	48→40	50	201/289/307	105	266	11	5	27%	10%	72	-0.7	199/288/295	96	278	8	4	29%	10%	69	-0.9	187/284/271	85	264	7	0	29%	10%	59	-0.8
✕Ty Hanchey 2024 · A	24	44	40→45	50→40	50	210/283/302	91	268	7	8	23%	9%	68	-1.0	213/283/312	99	296	9	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	207/277/307	100	297	10	3	32%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Dom Nuñez 2019 · AA	24	40→46	43→50	46→45	48	201/272/303	103	253	12	9	25%	8%	64	-1.3	198/280/354	156	269	18	7	32%	9%	80	-0.2	169/260/321	153	231	17	2	33%	10%	65	-0.6
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	46→50	46	189/265/291	102	263	10	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	193/262/310	117	276	12	11	32%	8%	62	-1.4	179/257/294	115	257	12	17	33%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2022 · AAA	24	41→44	41→40	52→50	48	197/277/294	96	279	9	14	30%	10%	64	-1.3	209/289/307	98	301	8	14	30%	10%	72	-0.7	202/287/292	90	293	7	15	31%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Yasel Antuna 2023 · AA	23	37→35	43→45	48→50	48	187/265/295	108	254	11	14	30%	9%	60	-1.6	188/267/285	97	271	9	13	31%	9%	59	-1.7	142/231/221	79	208	7	12	33%	9%	30	-1.5
✕James Free 2022 · A	24	41→45	40→45	48→30	43	195/265/289	94	297	7	6	35%	8%	58	-1.7	221/276/343	122	294	14	3	28%	6%	74	-0.5	226/281/358	133	288	16	1	27%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2024 · AA	24	44→41	42→45	43→40	46	214/283/317	104	276	10	4	25%	8%	72	-0.7	219/267/300	81	280	6	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	225/261/287	62	286	4	2	22%	4%	51	-0.5

Luke Davis

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps