J.R. Freethy — OGILVIE

J.R. FreethyLF Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 S/R 6'0" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION482 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP266

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	55	10	0	0	1	17	18	4	4	0	182	408	236	644	55	250	24	22	329	109	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	120	99	25	8	0	1	18	23	3	2	0	253	383	364	747	111	320	19	15	347	121	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	193	151	38	6	2	3	35	41	5	4	3	252	408	377	786	126	321	21	18	361	131	+7	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2025	22	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	30	5	0	1	0	7	11	3	1	0	167	375	233	608	67	263	28	18	308	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	59	9	0	0	1	13	25	4	4	0	153	342	203	545	51	238	33	17	269	68	-3	+1	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	120	106	20	6	0	1	11	34	3	2	0	189	283	274	557	85	263	28	9	250	55	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	193	160	32	5	2	2	26	60	5	4	3	200	330	294	624	94	292	31	13	285	79	-5	-0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	33	4	0	1	0	4	16	3	1	0	121	275	182	457	61	199	40	10	201	22	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	59	9	0	0	1	13	25	4	4	0	153	342	203	545	51	242	33	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	55	10	0	0	1	17	18	4	4	0	182	408	236	644	55	250	24	22	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	353	299	55	11	2	3	41	110	11	7	3	184	305	264	569	80	277	31	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	353	280	68	14	3	4	60	75	11	7	3	243	396	357	753	114	315	21	17	350	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	59	9	0	0	1	13	25	4	4	0	153	342	203	545	51	238	33	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	353	298	55	11	2	3	41	110	11	7	3	185	305	265	570	81	272	31	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	59	9	0	0	1	13	25	4	4	0	153	342	203	545	51	238	33	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	353	298	55	11	2	3	41	110	11	7	3	185	305	265	570	81	272	31	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	TOR	—	482	424	76	16	1	5	43	154	11	7	4	179	272	257	529	78	264	32	9	238	47	-30	-0	+0	-5	+10	-2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	TOR	—	366	298	71	18	1	5	57	89	8	5	2	238	375	356	730	117	319	24	16	337	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	TOR	—	116	101	20	3	0	1	11	24	3	2	2	198	296	257	553	59	247	21	9	261	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	TOR	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		265	33	11	255	59	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	TOR	—	491	432	77	16	1	5	44	157	11	7	4	178	271	255	526	76	263	32	9	238	47	-31	-0	+0	-5	+11	-2.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	436	382	72	15	1	6	43	129	8	5	2	188	284	280	564	92	266	30	10	266	66	-18	+0	+0	-5	+9	-1.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	466	408	81	16	2	8	46	134	9	5	2	199	294	306	600	108	269	29	10	274	72	-16	+0	+0	-5	+10	-1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	482	422	85	17	2	9	48	137	9	6	2	201	296	315	612	114	270	28	10	279	75	-14	+0	+0	-5	+10	-0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	486	425	86	17	2	9	49	138	9	6	3	202	298	315	613	113	270	28	10	280	76	-14	+0	+0	-5	+11	-0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	484	423	85	17	2	9	49	138	9	5	2	201	297	314	612	113	270	29	10	279	75	-14	+0	-1	-5	+10	-1.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	132	115	21	4	0	2	13	39	3	2	1	183	282	270	552	87	268	30	10	253	66	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	206	180	36	7	1	4	20	59	4	2	1	200	294	317	611	117	270	29	10	262	72	-7	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	245	215	43	8	1	5	24	70	4	3	1	200	292	316	608	116	271	29	10	266	75	-7	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	255	222	45	9	1	5	26	72	5	3	1	203	300	320	620	117	272	28	10	267	76	-7	+0	+0	-3	+6	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	258	225	46	9	1	5	26	74	5	3	1	204	301	320	621	116	271	29	10	267	75	-8	+0	-0	-3	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1096	957	191	37	4	21	109	314	21	13	5	200	295	312	608	113	271	29	10	264	72	-35	+1	-0	-12	+24	-2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	113	22	2	12	65	186	12	8	3	199	295	308	603	109	271	29	10	264	72	-21	+0	-0	-7	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2792	2426	474	93	11	45	290	814	59	38	14	195	297	298	595	103	272	29	10	274	72	-77	+1	-1	-25	+51	-5.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	111	22	3	10	68	190	14	9	3	196	299	299	598	103	274	29	10	274	72	-21	+0	-0	-7	+14	-1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.7	1,097	20	12	199	292	309	+4	+2	0.0	0.1
/162	664	12	7	+2.4	+1.2	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.R. Freethy (OGILVIE)	23	40	35	45	60	180/280/259	78	265	3	4	31%	10%	59	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	37→44	39→40	47→40	54	180/284/263	83	241	7	6	26%	11%	61	-1.5	192/281/278	86	270	8	4	29%	10%	63	-1.4	200/288/293	93	258	9	0	25%	10%	66	-0.6
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	55	198/298/270	72	275	3	7	26%	12%	67	-1.1	197/293/273	76	284	5	7	29%	11%	65	-1.2	163/278/221	58	239	5	4	30%	13%	48	-0.7
✕Frainyer Chavez 2022 · A	23	44→48	35→40	46→50	46	203/276/259	55	287	2	11	28%	8%	55	-1.9	210/273/279	69	293	5	13	28%	7%	58	-1.7	225/293/309	84	295	8	18	25%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A	24	43	40	47→40	50	209/288/305	96	279	8	5	26%	10%	71	-0.8	218/290/310	92	290	9	5	26%	9%	72	-0.7	213/289/293	79	280	8	3	25%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Trent Woodward 2015 · A	23	43	41→45	47→30	47	207/286/310	103	278	7	6	27%	8%	72	-0.7	220/287/309	89	313	7	4	29%	8%	71	-0.8	220/290/306	86	311	8	1	30%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Nash Knight 2016 · A	23	40→48	38→40	46→40	46	190/265/264	74	283	6	5	33%	9%	53	-2.1	224/289/308	84	302	6	4	26%	8%	71	-0.8	223/289/297	75	292	5	2	24%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2015 · A	23	45	42→40	44→55	49	218/293/323	104	278	9	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	221/275/307	86	298	6	8	27%	6%	65	-1.2	224/275/296	72	297	6	7	25%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→42	40	49→50	53	208/296/306	98	259	7	13	22%	10%	74	-0.5	216/295/307	91	278	7	10	23%	9%	74	-0.6	211/298/277	66	273	4	6	22%	9%	64	-0.5
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	206/268/286	80	275	6	9	26%	7%	58	-1.7	216/267/308	92	323	7	4	33%	6%	62	-1.4	212/260/299	87	317	7	0	34%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Carlos Ramirez 2012 · A	23	43	38→40	47→45	48	205/272/280	75	254	6	8	21%	8%	59	-1.7	198/267/269	71	267	6	8	26%	8%	54	-2.0	146/231/157	11	210	0	6	27%	9%	14	-1.1
✕Francisco Soriano 2010 · A	23	46→47	36→40	45→50	57	210/310/278	69	284	3	11	24%	12%	73	-0.6	210/279/298	88	278	4	15	24%	8%	65	-1.2	205/278/292	87	269	4	16	24%	8%	61	-1.0
✕Louis Ott 2008 · A	23	47→48	39→30	45	45	225/288/305	81	300	6	8	26%	7%	70	-0.8	228/301/297	69	326	4	7	28%	9%	73	-0.6	228/307/282	54	330	3	6	29%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	196/256/272	76	277	4	12	29%	7%	50	-2.3	214/268/301	87	306	3	10	29%	7%	61	-1.5	225/275/316	91	323	0	8	28%	6%	64	-0.7
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	44	39→40	49→55	44	210/266/295	85	273	6	7	25%	7%	59	-1.7	214/286/290	76	305	4	21	28%	9%	66	-1.1	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Chris Berset 2011 · A	23	43	38→40	43→40	47	206/283/286	80	270	5	7	24%	8%	65	-1.2	199/282/286	87	250	7	4	21%	9%	64	-1.3	186/269/274	88	225	8	2	20%	9%	55	-0.7
✕Joseph Rosa 2021 · A	24	43→44	38→40	44→50	42	205/270/286	81	290	6	9	30%	7%	59	-1.6	213/281/322	109	313	9	17	32%	7%	72	-0.7	204/281/306	103	305	8	21	33%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Riley Unroe 2019 · AAA	23	41→48	37→45	46→55	45	196/266/268	71	281	5	12	30%	8%	53	-2.1	217/278/313	96	294	8	11	27%	7%	68	-1.0	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→45	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	66	-1.1	229/326/283	54	319	2	26	25%	12%	80	-0.2	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Carlos Colmenares 2009 · A	23	43→53	39→40	47→50	45	208/276/292	84	279	7	12	27%	7%	63	-1.4	236/285/306	70	315	2	13	24%	6%	68	-1.0	259/295/394	135	304	9	17	18%	5%	89	+0.1
✕Marcus Littlewood 2015 · A	23	41	42→45	49→45	47	202/269/308	106	265	9	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	210/269/319	109	275	10	5	26%	7%	66	-1.1	207/261/311	104	269	10	3	26%	7%	59	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps