J.R. Freethy — OGILVIE

J.R. Freethy2B Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 S/R 6'0" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION322 act + 214 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .277 / .246

PA214

HR2

K%32

BB%10

BABIP266

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	59	10	0	0	1	13	24	4	4	0	169	355	220	576	51	265	32	17	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	55	10	0	0	1	17	18	4	4	0	182	408	236	644	55	250	24	22	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	3 teams	—	353	300	55	12	2	3	40	113	11	7	3	183	302	267	569	83	280	32	11	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	3 teams	—	353	280	68	14	3	4	60	75	11	7	3	243	396	357	753	114	315	21	17	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	TOR	—	322	283	51	12	0	4	30	109	6	2	2	180	273	265	538	85	272	34	9	241	43	-21	-0	+0	+1	+9	-1.1
YTD	23	A+	TOR	—	322	265	63	16	0	5	48	78	6	2	2	238	367	355	721	117	314	24	15	332	112	+4	-0	+0	+1	+9	1.5
ROS	23	A+	TOR	0%	214	186	33	7	0	2	22	69	4	2	1	177	277	246	524	70	269	32	10	257	55	-11	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						270	0	0	242	44	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	TOR	—	323	284	51	12	0	4	30	109	6	2	2	180	272	264	536	85	270	34	9	241	43	-21	-0	+0	+1	+9	-1.1
TOT	23	A+	TOR	—	536	469	84	19	0	6	52	178	10	4	3	179	275	258	532	79	269	33	10	247	48	-32	-0	+0	+2	+15	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	565	492	94	20	2	8	58	174	10	5	2	191	289	289	578	98	270	31	10	267	63	-24	+0	+0	+2	+16	-0.6
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	580	506	100	21	2	10	59	175	10	5	2	198	294	306	600	109	273	30	10	275	69	-21	+0	+0	+2	+16	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	TOR	51%	585	510	102	21	2	11	60	174	10	5	2	200	297	314	610	114	274	30	10	279	72	-19	+0	+0	+2	+17	0.0
2030	27	MLB	TOR	52%	584	509	102	21	2	11	60	173	10	5	2	200	297	314	611	114	274	30	10	280	72	-18	+0	+0	+2	+17	0.1
2031	28	MLB	TOR	53%	579	504	101	21	2	11	60	172	10	5	2	200	298	315	613	115	273	30	10	279	72	-19	+0	-1	+2	+16	-0.1
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	171	148	28	6	0	3	18	53	3	1	1	189	290	291	580	101	272	31	11	255	53	-9	-0	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	257	224	44	9	1	4	26	77	5	2	1	196	294	299	593	103	274	30	10	263	59	-12	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.4
2029	26	MLB	TOR	51%	297	260	53	11	1	6	30	88	5	3	1	204	298	323	621	119	275	30	10	267	62	-13	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.3
2030	27	MLB	TOR	52%	306	266	54	11	1	6	32	91	5	3	1	203	300	320	620	117	275	30	10	268	63	-13	+0	+0	+1	+9	-0.3
2031	28	MLB	TOR	53%	309	269	54	11	1	6	32	92	5	3	1	201	297	316	613	115	275	30	10	267	63	-13	+0	-0	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1341	1168	233	48	4	25	138	401	23	12	5	199	296	312	608	112	278	30	10	265	61	-59	+0	-0	+5	+38	-1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	113	23	2	12	67	194	11	6	2	200	296	311	607	111	278	30	10	265	61	-29	+0	-0	+2	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	3536	3066	597	123	12	57	372	1074	69	38	14	195	296	298	594	104	276	30	11	273	67	-130	+2	-1	+13	+100	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	109	23	2	10	68	197	13	7	3	193	295	294	589	101	275	30	10	273	67	-24	+0	-0	+2	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	76	55	10	0	0	1	17	18	4	4	0	182	408	236	644	55	250	24	22	329	110	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	120	99	25	8	0	1	18	23	3	2	0	253	383	364	747	111	320	19	15	347	123	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	193	151	38	6	2	3	35	41	5	4	3	252	408	377	786	126	321	21	18	361	135	+8	-0	—	—	+5	1.3
2025	22	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	30	5	0	1	0	7	11	3	1	0	167	375	233	608	67	263	28	18	308	94	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,341	24	12	198	292	308	+5	+2	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	12	6	198	292	308	+2.4	+1.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.R. Freethy (OGILVIE)	23	40	35	45	60	179/275/258	79	269	6	4	33%	10%	48	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	38→44	39→45	47→40	54	184/290/266	83	249	7	6	27%	12%	59	-1.1	192/281/280	88	271	9	4	30%	10%	59	-1.1	204/292/309	105	261	11	0	25%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Frainyer Chavez 2022 · A	23	43→47	35→40	46→50	47	199/275/254	55	281	3	11	28%	9%	48	-1.9	207/271/278	71	290	5	13	28%	8%	52	-1.6	228/293/326	98	302	11	17	26%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	53	198/292/268	70	276	3	7	27%	11%	59	-1.1	195/288/272	77	280	6	7	29%	11%	59	-1.1	161/272/222	60	234	6	4	30%	12%	39	-0.7
✕Nash Knight 2016 · A	23	40→48	38→45	46→40	46	190/265/264	74	283	6	5	33%	9%	46	-2.0	223/287/307	84	302	6	4	26%	8%	66	-0.6	221/286/296	75	292	5	2	25%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	43	39→40	49→55	44	209/265/293	84	274	6	7	25%	7%	53	-1.5	210/281/284	74	303	4	21	29%	8%	58	-1.2	201/279/263	62	296	3	27	30%	9%	50	-0.6
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	205/266/285	80	275	6	9	27%	7%	52	-1.6	212/262/306	94	320	8	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Trent Woodward 2015 · A	23	43	41→40	47→30	47	207/286/310	103	278	7	6	27%	8%	68	-0.5	218/284/304	86	315	7	4	30%	8%	64	-0.8	215/283/297	82	312	8	1	31%	8%	59	-0.3
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	195/254/270	74	274	4	12	29%	7%	42	-2.3	214/267/300	86	306	4	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	225/274/314	90	324	0	8	29%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Marcus Littlewood 2015 · A	23	41	41→45	49→45	46	201/266/303	102	266	8	5	27%	8%	56	-1.3	214/272/330	116	284	11	5	27%	7%	66	-0.6	212/266/328	116	280	12	3	28%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A	24	43	41→40	47→40	50	209/287/310	100	280	8	5	27%	10%	68	-0.5	214/287/309	95	287	9	5	27%	9%	66	-0.6	207/283/288	81	273	8	3	26%	9%	57	-0.6
✕Joseph Rosa 2021 · A	24	43→44	39→40	43→50	42	205/269/287	83	288	6	9	30%	7%	54	-1.4	211/277/318	107	313	9	17	33%	7%	65	-0.7	200/276/299	99	306	8	21	34%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2015 · A	23	45	42→40	44→55	49	217/291/322	105	276	9	10	24%	8%	72	-0.2	217/271/300	83	294	6	8	27%	6%	57	-1.2	213/265/281	67	285	5	7	26%	5%	45	-0.8
✕Louis Ott 2008 · A	23	47→48	39→30	45	45	225/288/305	81	300	6	8	26%	7%	66	-0.6	228/301/296	68	327	4	7	28%	9%	69	-0.4	228/307/282	54	330	3	6	29%	10%	65	-0.4
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Carlos Ramirez 2012 · A	23	42	38→40	47→45	48	203/268/279	77	249	6	8	21%	8%	51	-1.7	196/265/268	72	265	6	8	26%	8%	47	-1.9	143/229/152	10	209	0	6	28%	9%	1	-1.2
✕Francisco Soriano 2010 · A	23	46→48	36→40	45→50	57	210/310/278	69	284	3	11	24%	12%	69	-0.4	210/282/300	90	279	4	15	24%	9%	62	-0.9	203/278/291	88	267	4	16	24%	9%	56	-0.9
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	23	41→46	35→40	47→50	46	192/255/257	64	260	2	10	26%	8%	40	-2.4	204/256/289	85	277	5	8	27%	6%	48	-1.9	210/295/360	150	264	16	2	26%	10%	80	+0.1
✕Rey Bruguera 2015 · A	23	41	38→40	43→50	40	199/252/273	74	288	6	6	32%	6%	42	-2.3	190/256/261	71	300	5	5	35%	8%	41	-2.3	147/230/190	43	242	3	0	37%	9%	10	-1.8
✕Adrian Nieto 2013 · A	23	42→45	41→45	45→40	44	203/268/299	96	290	8	5	31%	8%	56	-1.3	215/281/329	114	306	11	4	31%	8%	69	-0.4	205/279/318	112	292	11	2	31%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Mack Chambers 2022 · A	22	41	37→40	45→50	44	197/255/273	76	263	4	7	26%	7%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	276	8	11	25%	7%	61	-1.0	203/270/297	93	260	8	13	24%	8%	54	-0.7