Danny Serretti
2B Amarillo Sod Poodles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+DET | 363 | .192/.301/.283 | 5 | 5 | 29 | — | .156/.236/.226 |
| 2025 | 25 | AADET | 240 | .209/.315/.311 | 3 | 5 | 49 | — | .186/.265/.260 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AAARI | 445 | .287/.423/.511 | 19 | 11 | 110 | — | .240/.345/.411 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBARI | 3 | .222/.316/.362 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 28 | MLBARI | 74 | .222/.315/.360 | 2 | 1 | 89 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 24 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 417 | 263 | 680 | 333 | 17 | 17 | 335 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 46 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 289 | 413 | 395 | 808 | 105 | 407 | 24 | 13 | 372 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 46 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 375 | 565 | 688 | 1.253 | 312 | 417 | 13 | 30 | 533 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 186 | 156 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 317 | 269 | 586 | 64 | 254 | 19 | 13 | 274 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 204 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 284 | 372 | 441 | 813 | 157 | 335 | 19 | 11 | 357 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 43 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 206 | 372 | 206 | 578 | 304 | 26 | 14 | 296 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 320 | 273 | 52 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 190 | 291 | 293 | 584 | 103 | 258 | 28 | 11 | 266 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 240 | 206 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 315 | 311 | 626 | 102 | 253 | 20 | 12 | 289 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 141 | 117 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 316 | 424 | 513 | 937 | 197 | 395 | 23 | 15 | 409 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 304 | 239 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 68 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 272 | 422 | 510 | 932 | 238 | 319 | 22 | 18 | 409 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 24 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 375 | 250 | 625 | 323 | 21 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 46 | 40 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 348 | 350 | 698 | 100 | 373 | 33 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 46 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 306 | 457 | 500 | 957 | 194 | 359 | 17 | 22 | 416 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 186 | 165 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 273 | 255 | 528 | 61 | 249 | 25 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 212 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 259 | 329 | 401 | 730 | 142 | 310 | 24 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 43 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 326 | 194 | 520 | 301 | 30 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 320 | 286 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 121 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 150 | 224 | 231 | 454 | 80 | 225 | 38 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 240 | 215 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 74 | 236 | 23 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 141 | 123 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 360 | 431 | 791 | 154 | 357 | 27 | 11 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 304 | 256 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 83 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 223 | 339 | 402 | 741 | 180 | 273 | 27 | 12 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 116 | 96 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 260 | 388 | 365 | 753 | 104 | 358 | 24 | 15 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 116 | 89 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 315 | 474 | 472 | 946 | 157 | 394 | 18 | 21 | 428 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 378 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 103 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 228 | 300 | 325 | 625 | 98 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 424 | 360 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 81 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 250 | 348 | 367 | 714 | 117 | 300 | 19 | 12 | 321 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 322 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 134 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 155 | 236 | 227 | 463 | 71 | 243 | 37 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 307 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 102 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 192 | 301 | 283 | 584 | 91 | 263 | 28 | 12 | 270 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 240 | 215 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 74 | 237 | 23 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 240 | 206 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 315 | 311 | 626 | 102 | 253 | 20 | 12 | 289 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 379 | 91 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 52 | 121 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 240 | 345 | 412 | 757 | 172 | 308 | 27 | 12 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 445 | 356 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 19 | 75 | 100 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 287 | 423 | 511 | 934 | 225 | 344 | 22 | 17 | 409 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 116 | 95 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 263 | 388 | 368 | 756 | 105 | 357 | 24 | 15 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 382 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 103 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 225 | 300 | 322 | 622 | 97 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 326 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 134 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 153 | 236 | 224 | 460 | 71 | 234 | 37 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 240 | 215 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 74 | 236 | 23 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 381 | 91 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 52 | 121 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 239 | 345 | 409 | 755 | 171 | 300 | 27 | 12 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 326 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 134 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 153 | 236 | 224 | 460 | 71 | 234 | 37 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 240 | 215 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 74 | 236 | 23 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 381 | 91 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 52 | 121 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 239 | 345 | 409 | 755 | 171 | 300 | 27 | 12 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 2% | 380 | 331 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 100 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 217 | 312 | 354 | 665 | 137 | 277 | 26 | 11 | 301 | 90 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 316 | 362 | 678 | 140 | 286 | 33 | 0 | 306 | 90 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 33% | 222 | 194 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 310 | 352 | 662 | 135 | 276 | 27 | 10 | 300 | 89 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 33% | 74 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 315 | 360 | 674 | 138 | 286 | 27 | 11 | 305 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 74 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 311 | 354 | 665 | 138 | 279 | 27 | 11 | 305 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 123 | 26 | 0 | 18 | 70 | 176 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 215 | 311 | 356 | 666 | 140 | 279 | 27 | 11 | 305 | 77 | -8 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1965 | 1720 | 363 | 70 | 8 | 37 | 192 | 541 | 29 | 37 | 19 | 211 | 301 | 326 | 626 | 115 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 281 | 77 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 64 | 179 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 211 | 302 | 325 | 627 | 114 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 281 | 77 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 304 PAwOBA .402 → .328 (−74)K% 22.4% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.37% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 12.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 6.47% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .402 → .328; ISO .238 → .199; BABIP .319 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAReno Aces · 141 PAwOBA .402 → .337 (−65)K% 22.7% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×1.018 | 27.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.018 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.018 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.19% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .402 → .337; ISO .197 → .154; BABIP .395 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 240 PAwOBA .284 → .241 (−43)K% 19.6% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.58% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.24% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.39% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .284 → .241; ISO .102 → .081; BABIP .253 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 320 PAwOBA .263 → .207 (−55)K% 28.4% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.44% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.68% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.988 | 16.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×0.988 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.981 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.75% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .263 → .207; ISO .103 → .086; BABIP .258 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 43 PAwOBA .290 → .249 (−41)K% 25.6% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.58% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.95% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 6.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 30.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .249; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .304 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 238 PAwOBA .354 → .309 (−45)K% 18.9% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.91% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.90% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 22.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.14% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.85% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .354 → .309; ISO .157 → .137; BABIP .335 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 186 PAwOBA .272 → .237 (−35)K% 19.4% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.35% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.44% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .272 → .237; ISO .064 → .058; BABIP .254 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 46 PAwOBA .364 → .299 (−65)K% 23.9% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.91% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 3.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 13.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .299; ISO .105 → .093; BABIP .407 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).