Jack Cebert

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 209 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #685MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP42ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	A+NYY	5	0	6	2.84	4.21	44.0%	4.0%	—	K 44.0% · BB 4.0% · FIP 4.28
2026	24	MIX3 levels	24	20	109	4.03	3.83	25.7%	9.1%	—	K 20.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	22	22	129	4.79	4.79	20.6%	9.8%	0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBWSH	10	10	57	4.72	4.71	21.0%	9.6%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	14	14	81	4.70	4.71	21.0%	9.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control52Command45FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 81%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Buck Farmer (age 25) · Kenten Egbert (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD3045

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.28	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.28	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	20	109	474	122	43	15	83%	4.6	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.8%	4.03	4.61	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	20	109	474	122	43	15	83%	4.6	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.8%	4.03	4.61	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	20	109	474	122	43	15	83%	4.6	25.7%	9.1%	16.7%	3.2%	4.03	3.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	22	22	129	545	112	53	18	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.3%	4.79	4.79	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	129	546	114	52	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.72	4.71	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	127	538	113	51	18	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.71	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	522	109	50	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	118	498	103	49	18	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	111	468	95	47	17	100%	6.2	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.07	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	50	23	8	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.72	4.71	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	81	342	72	32	11	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.71	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	82	38	13	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	96	405	84	39	14	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	95	401	82	40	15	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	422	1783	371	173	62	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.80	4.47	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	82	29	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.80	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		29	20	116	499	110	46	20	69%	4.0	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	4.0%	3.97	4.60	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	863	190	80	34	69%	4.0	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	4.0%	3.97	4.60	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Cebert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	20.6%	9.8%	3.3%	—	4.73	21.0%	11.4%	380	-0.06	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	89
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	84
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	84
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	84
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	20.4%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	3.93	17.6%	10.5%	275	-0.36	3.19	627	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	83
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	83
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	83
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	82
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	82
Chris Ellis R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP-	3.84	19.3%	7.3%	2.6%	.284	5.30	19.2%	7.2%	165	+1.46	3.84	780	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	123	20.8%	9.7%	1.32	4.79
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*