Rafe Schlesinger
P
Lake County Captains
+1.1
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 188 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.6%
IP104
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 19 | 104 | 444 | 112 | 43 | 3 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 0.8% | 3.56 | 3.38 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 2 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 95 | 44 | 11 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 112 | 475 | 104 | 47 | 11 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.01 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 115 | 49 | 13 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 130 | 52 | 15 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 143 | 603 | 137 | 54 | 16 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 146 | 615 | 140 | 55 | 16 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 146 | 614 | 140 | 55 | 16 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 136 | 54 | 16 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 131 | 53 | 16 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 125 | 52 | 16 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 118 | 51 | 16 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 111 | 49 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 104 | 48 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 96 | 46 | 15 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 44 | 14 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 23 | 119 | 511 | 104 | 56 | 4 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 0.9% | 3.55 | 3.27 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 859 | 175 | 94 | 7 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 0.9% | 3.55 | 3.27 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafe Schlesinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | — | 4.13 | 22.6% | 13.5% | 401 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 93 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 93 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 93 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 93 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 92 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 92 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 91 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 91 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 90 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 90 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 88 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 88 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 88 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 88 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.5% | .329 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.50 | 3.56 | 280 | 88 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 87 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 87 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 86 |
| Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.25 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .337 | 5.79 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 131 | +2.54 | 3.25 | 248 | 86 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$11M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $14M | +$8M |
| Totals | $17M | $97M | +$81M | ||