Rafe Schlesinger
P
Lake County Captains
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 188 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%20.4%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 36.7% | 10.0% | 26.7% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 36.7% | 10.0% | 26.7% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 104 | 444 | 112 | 43 | 3 | 76% | 4.1 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 3.56 | 3.34 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 104 | 444 | 112 | 43 | 3 | 76% | 4.1 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 0.7% | 3.56 | 2.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 17 | 16 | 70 | 323 | 88 | 29 | 11 | 94% | 4.1 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 5.68 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.68 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 134 | 597 | 144 | 62 | 18 | — | — | 24.1% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 5.20 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.4% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 109 | 56 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 132 | 62 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 146 | 66 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 143 | 65 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 138 | 64 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 131 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 121 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 111 | 58 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 91 | 384 | 87 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 116 | 53 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 123 | 56 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 123 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 119 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 111 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 104 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 146 | 869 | 3668 | 830 | 397 | 103 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.10 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 91 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 38 | 181 | 797 | 163 | 86 | 18 | 84% | 4.0 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 4.43 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 42 | 200 | 882 | 181 | 96 | 20 | 84% | 4.0 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 4.43 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafe Schlesinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.34 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 406 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 90 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 89 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .275 | 3.80 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 141 | -0.20 | 3.73 | 245 | 88 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 87 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 86 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 86 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 85 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 85 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 84 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.54 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .318 | 3.35 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 322 | -1.19 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 84 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 84 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 84 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 83 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 83 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 83 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 83 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.96 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.20 | 3.85 | 269 | 83 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 83 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 83 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.73 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .329 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.37 | 3.73 | 280 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 130 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 1.07 | 4.47 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |