Rafe Schlesinger

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#428ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ALynchburg Hil…	3	3	7	4.91	3.10	36.7%	10.0%	—	K 36.7% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.10
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	19	104	3.56	2.56	25.2%	9.7%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.37
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	26	117	4.14	3.65	24.9%	9.9%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.52
2027PROJ	24	MLBCLE	1	1	3	4.89	4.89	19.7%	12.1%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCLE	8	8	48	4.74	4.69	20.8%	11.2%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCLE	11	11	68	4.64	4.60	21.4%	10.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Ext$0.4M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 6.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 79%

CompsDylan Carmouche (age 22) · Shane Drohan (age 24) · Tate Kuehner (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%19.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	3	3	7	30	11	3	1	100%	2.4	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	3.3%	4.91	3.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	3	3	7	30	11	3	1	100%	2.4	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	3.3%	4.91	3.10	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	3	3	7	30	11	3	1	100%	2.4	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	3.3%	4.91	3.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	104	444	112	43	3	76%	4.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.5%	0.8%	3.56	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	104	444	112	43	3	76%	4.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.5%	0.8%	3.56	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	104	444	112	43	3	76%	4.1	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	0.7%	3.56	2.56	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	117	523	130	52	13	96%	4.3	19.7%	11.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.52	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	117	523	130	52	13	96%	4.3	19.7%	11.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.52	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	117	523	130	52	13	96%	4.3	24.9%	9.9%	14.9%	2.5%	4.14	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CLE	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	2.8%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	110	464	97	52	13	100%	5.8	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.69	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	101	426	91	47	12	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.64	4.60	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	96	404	87	44	12	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	90	382	82	42	11	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.70	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	84	354	75	39	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	76	321	67	37	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	11.4%	9.3%	3.3%	4.91	5.00	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	68	287	58	34	10	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	48	203	42	23	6	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.69	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	68	287	62	31	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.64	4.60	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	74	312	67	34	9	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	76	321	69	35	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.70	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	73	308	65	34	10	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	68	287	60	33	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	11.4%	9.3%	3.3%	4.91	5.00	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	62	262	53	31	9	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	470	1986	419	222	61	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.76	4.42	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	94	26	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.76	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		55	48	228	997	197	112	20	87%	4.2	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.0%	3.90	3.97	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	42	200	873	173	98	18	87%	4.2	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.0%	3.90	3.97	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 72 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.59 (+0.71)K% 20.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.94%	—	×0.810	16.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.62%	—	×1.100	11.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 45 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.40 (+1.18)K% 31.0% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.770	23.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.87%	—	×1.150	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 84 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.32 (+0.79)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.58%	—	×0.740	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.180	11.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.184	×1.300	0.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 20 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.60 (+0.89)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.91%	—	×0.770	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.47%	—	×1.150	12.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.011	×1.250	1.44%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 5.12 (+2.02)K% 36.7% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.67%	—	×0.740	27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.844	×1.300	5.14%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafe Schlesinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.64	21.2%	10.2%	307	-0.25	—	—	—
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	88
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	84
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	84
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	82
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	82
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	82
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	81
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	81
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	81
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	80
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	80
Ixan Henderson L 2024 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP-	3.77	18.1%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.50	3.27	236	79
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	79
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	79
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	79
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	20.8%	11.3%	1.16	4.78
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83