Rafe Schlesinger

Rafe Schlesinger P Akron RubberDucks

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.4%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL4045

CMD4040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$17M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	3	3	7	30	11	3	1	100%	2.4	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	3.3%	4.91	3.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	3	3	7	30	11	3	1	100%	2.4	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	3.3%	4.91	3.10	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	3	3	7	30	11	3	1	100%	2.4	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	3.3%	4.91	3.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	104	444	112	43	3	76%	4.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.5%	0.8%	3.56	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	104	444	112	43	3	76%	4.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.5%	0.8%	3.56	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	104	444	112	43	3	76%	4.1	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	0.7%	3.56	2.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	117	523	130	52	13	96%	4.3	19.7%	11.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.52	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	117	523	130	52	13	96%	4.3	19.7%	11.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CLE	11	10	45	203	63	18	6	91%	4.1	31.0%	8.9%	22.2%	3.0%	4.40	3.22	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CLE	16	16	72	320	67	34	7	100%	4.5	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.2%	3.98	3.88	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	8	32	7	4	1	100%	7.6	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	2.5%	4.71	4.71	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	125	555	137	56	14	—	—	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	2.5%	4.18	4.53	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	144	607	132	69	15	100%	5.5	21.8%	11.3%	10.5%	2.5%	4.54	4.47	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	164	691	156	74	18	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	2.6%	4.41	4.33	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	175	739	171	78	19	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.5%	12.5%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	172	728	168	77	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.6%	4.33	4.32	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	167	706	162	75	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	160	674	153	74	20	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.47	4.54	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	634	141	71	20	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.71	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	140	591	130	68	20	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	130	547	117	65	20	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.0%	9.5%	3.6%	5.01	5.14	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	63	266	58	30	7	100%	5.7	21.8%	11.3%	10.5%	2.5%	4.54	4.47	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	109	460	104	49	12	100%	5.7	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	2.6%	4.41	4.33	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	139	587	135	62	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.5%	12.5%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	147	621	143	65	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.6%	4.33	4.32	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	149	629	144	67	17	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.41	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	145	612	139	67	18	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.47	4.54	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	138	583	130	65	18	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.71	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	130	549	120	63	18	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	121	511	110	61	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	12.0%	9.5%	3.6%	5.01	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		192	192	1143	4828	1086	532	140	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.18	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	93	24	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		55	48	228	997	197	112	20	87%	4.2	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.0%	3.90	3.97	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	42	200	873	173	98	18	87%	4.2	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.0%	3.90	3.97	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafe Schlesinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.4%	12.3%	2.5%	—	4.36	22.6%	11.7%	482	-0.35	—	—	—
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	88
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	85
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	85
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	85
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	84
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	84
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	84
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	84
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	84
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.56	1,435	84
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	84
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	83
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	83
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.77	17.6%	4.3%	113	-0.35	3.19	332	82
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	81
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	81
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	149	22.4%	11.1%	1.10	4.54
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45