Frank Mozzicato

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #840

Scout OFP43ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+KC	22	22	102	3.45	4.29	21.3%	14.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 5.34
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	20	93	5.03	5.37	20.3%	17.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 20.0% · FIP 6.06
2026	23	AANorthwest Ark…	37	11	72	8.04	5.95	27.5%	20.4%	—	K 22.3% · BB 22.4% · FIP 6.67
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	22	22	122	6.30	6.30	19.5%	20.0%	-1.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBKC	9	9	54	5.92	5.80	20.3%	17.0%	-0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBKC	14	14	82	5.72	5.66	20.8%	16.2%	-0.7

Next 3 projected WAR -3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command43FB velo43

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsSeth Lonsway (age 24) · Larson Kindreich (age 24) · Doug Davis (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137145vR 153

ERA6.30

FIP6.30

K%19.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.5%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3035

CMD3545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	19	19	69	306	89	51	6	100%	3.6	21.5%	19.7%	1.9%	2.2%	4.30	5.00	—
2022	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	19	19	69	306	89	51	6	100%	3.6	29.1%	16.7%	12.4%	2.0%	4.30	3.87	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	93	413	130	67	12	100%	4.4	23.6%	18.9%	4.7%	3.5%	4.65	5.42	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	93	413	130	67	12	100%	4.4	31.5%	16.2%	15.3%	2.9%	4.65	4.14	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	102	427	91	62	9	100%	4.6	16.4%	16.7%	-0.3%	2.7%	3.45	5.34	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	102	427	91	62	9	100%	4.6	16.4%	16.7%	-0.3%	2.7%	3.45	5.34	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	22	102	427	91	62	9	100%	4.6	21.3%	14.5%	6.8%	2.1%	3.45	4.29	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	93	419	85	75	12	83%	3.9	16.1%	20.0%	-3.9%	3.3%	5.03	6.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	93	419	85	75	12	83%	3.9	16.1%	20.0%	-3.9%	3.3%	5.03	6.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	93	419	85	75	12	83%	3.9	20.3%	17.9%	2.4%	2.9%	5.03	5.37	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	11	72	353	97	72	14	30%	1.9	22.3%	22.4%	-0.2%	4.8%	8.04	6.67	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	11	72	353	97	72	14	30%	1.9	22.3%	22.4%	-0.2%	4.8%	8.04	6.67	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	11	72	353	97	72	14	30%	1.9	27.5%	20.4%	7.1%	4.0%	8.04	5.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	22	22	122	515	100	103	18	100%	5.5	19.5%	20.0%	-0.5%	3.5%	6.30	6.30	-1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	123	520	106	88	18	100%	5.9	20.3%	17.0%	3.4%	3.4%	5.92	5.80	-1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	123	520	108	84	18	100%	5.9	20.8%	16.2%	4.5%	3.4%	5.72	5.66	-1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	121	513	107	81	18	100%	6.1	20.8%	15.9%	4.9%	3.4%	5.63	5.62	-1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	118	497	103	79	18	100%	5.9	20.7%	15.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.64	5.67	-1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	475	97	76	17	100%	5.9	20.5%	16.1%	4.4%	3.7%	5.74	5.81	-1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	106	447	90	73	17	100%	5.9	20.1%	16.4%	3.8%	3.9%	5.89	5.98	-1.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	54	228	46	39	8	100%	6.0	20.3%	17.0%	3.4%	3.4%	5.92	5.80	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	82	346	72	56	12	100%	5.9	20.8%	16.2%	4.5%	3.4%	5.72	5.66	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	94	397	83	63	14	100%	5.9	20.8%	15.9%	4.9%	3.4%	5.63	5.62	-0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	87	66	15	100%	6.2	20.7%	15.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.64	5.67	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	86	67	15	100%	6.2	20.5%	16.1%	4.4%	3.7%	5.74	5.81	-1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	95	401	81	66	16	100%	5.9	20.1%	16.4%	3.8%	3.9%	5.89	5.98	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	524	2211	454	357	79	100%	6.0	20.5%	16.2%	4.4%	3.6%	5.74	5.38	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	136	30	100%	6.0	20.5%	16.2%	4.4%	3.6%	5.74	5.38	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		123	93	428	1918	379	372	64	76%	3.5	19.8%	19.4%	0.4%	3.3%	4.96	5.71	-6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	43	200	896	177	174	30	76%	3.5	19.8%	19.4%	0.4%	3.3%	4.96	5.71	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frank Mozzicato (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.30	19.5%	20.0%	3.5%	—	5.69	20.6%	4.3%	368	-0.61	—	—	—
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	77
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	71
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	71
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	69
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	68
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	67
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	67
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	67
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	67
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	65
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	65
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	64
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	63
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	63
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	63
Tommy Sommer L 2023 · 6.99 FIP	24	SP	6.99	16.7%	16.4%	5.9%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	230	63
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	62
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	62
Matt Perisho L 2000 · 5.59 FIP	25	SW	5.59	14.4%	12.4%	3.9%	.325	4.96	9.3%	1.3%	50	-0.63	4.41	261	61
Mark Reyes L 2017 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.9%	17.0%	2.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	378	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	118	20.4%	16.8%	1.37	5.84
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41