Kevison Hernandez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Kevison Hernandez P FCL Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 188 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%23.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	10	9	23	102	27	15	0	90%	2.3	18.0%	18.4%	-0.4%	0.0%	2.78	3.91	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	10	9	23	102	27	15	0	90%	2.3	26.5%	14.7%	11.8%	0.0%	2.78	2.70	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	5	4	13	50	20	3	0	80%	2.5	27.2%	7.5%	19.7%	0.0%	2.84	1.75	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	5	4	13	50	20	3	0	80%	2.5	40.0%	6.0%	34.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.65	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	16	0	28	128	38	26	1	0%	1.7	20.2%	25.4%	-5.2%	1.2%	3.25	5.26	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	16	0	28	128	38	26	1	0%	1.7	20.2%	25.4%	-5.2%	1.2%	3.25	5.26	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	16	0	28	128	38	26	1	0%	1.7	29.7%	20.3%	9.4%	0.8%	3.25	3.64	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	1	5	30	5	14	0	12%	0.6	16.7%	46.7%	-30.0%	0.0%	17.36	7.60	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	1	5	30	5	14	0	12%	0.6	16.7%	46.7%	-30.0%	0.0%	17.36	7.60	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	8	1	5	30	5	14	0	12%	0.6	16.7%	46.7%	-30.0%	0.0%	17.36	9.96	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	14.2%	8.9%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.73	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	5	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	117	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		39	14	68	310	63	69	2	36%	1.7	20.3%	22.3%	-2.0%	0.5%	3.99	4.48	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	41	200	916	186	204	4	36%	1.7	20.3%	22.3%	-2.0%	0.5%	3.99	4.48	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevison Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.73	23.5%	10.9%	20	-0.24	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	78
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	75
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	75
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	75
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	75
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	74
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	74
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	74
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	74
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	74
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	74
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	73
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	73
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	73
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	73
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.10	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.04	3.84	249	73
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	72
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	72