Carlos Marcano
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 150 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%8.5%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 18 | 1 | 36 | 154 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 1.0% | 5.25 | 3.13 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 29 | 0 | 42 | 195 | 41 | 17 | 2 | 15.6% | 10.3% | 1.1% | 4.68 | 3.69 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 22 | 18 | 100 | 429 | 78 | 41 | 7 | 13.5% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 26 | 23 | 112 | 488 | 97 | 36 | 5 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 1.5% | 3.86 | 3.69 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 13 | 10 | 49 | 215 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 12.0% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 4.07 | 6.56 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 3 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 71 | 295 | 55 | 28 | 9 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | DET | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | DET | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | DET | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 47 | 23 | 8 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 38 | 20 | 7 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | DET | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 54 | 348 | 1515 | 223 | 154 | 30 | 14.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 31 | 200 | 871 | 128 | 89 | 17 | 14.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Marcano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.52 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 192 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 96 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 94 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.21 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.11 | 3.71 | 301 | 93 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .310 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 110 | -0.63 | 2.36 | 229 | 93 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 92 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 92 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 92 |
| Miguel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 171 | 91 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.81 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.92 | 13.9% | 7.0% | 196 | +1.11 | 3.81 | 264 | 91 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.33 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 51 | +0.50 | 3.83 | 102 | 91 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 91 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.28 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .350 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.57 | 3.68 | 147 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.49 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 98 | -0.93 | 2.46 | 228 | 91 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.72 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.14 | 4.46 | 213 | 90 |
| Matt Frawley R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 90 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.84 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .305 | 5.79 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +1.95 | 3.84 | 190 | 90 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.93 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .254 | 3.71 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 89 | -0.22 | 2.30 | 189 | 90 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.87 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .309 | 4.00 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -0.87 | 3.79 | 314 | 90 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||