Carlos Marcano — OGILVIE

Carlos Marcano P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%15.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	18	1	36	154	41	10	1	6%	2.0	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	1.0%	5.25	3.12	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	18	1	36	154	41	10	1	6%	2.0	26.6%	6.5%	20.1%	0.6%	5.25	2.02	—
2022	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	42	195	41	17	2	0%	1.5	15.6%	10.3%	5.3%	1.0%	4.68	3.66	—
2022	19	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	42	195	41	17	2	0%	1.5	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	1.0%	4.68	2.98	—
2023	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	18	100	429	78	41	7	82%	4.5	13.5%	11.3%	2.2%	1.7%	4.50	4.35	—
2023	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	18	100	429	78	41	7	82%	4.5	13.5%	11.3%	2.2%	1.7%	4.50	4.35	—
2023	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	18	100	429	78	41	7	82%	4.5	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.6%	4.50	3.68	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	23	112	488	97	36	5	88%	4.3	15.3%	8.5%	6.8%	1.4%	3.86	3.67	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	23	112	488	97	36	5	88%	4.3	15.3%	8.5%	6.8%	1.4%	3.86	3.67	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	23	112	488	97	36	5	88%	4.3	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	1.0%	3.86	2.91	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	49	215	34	26	7	77%	3.7	12.0%	14.0%	-2.0%	4.8%	4.07	6.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	49	215	34	26	7	77%	3.7	12.0%	14.0%	-2.0%	4.8%	4.07	6.50	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	49	215	34	26	7	77%	3.7	15.8%	12.1%	3.7%	3.3%	4.07	5.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	17	11	51	226	47	30	10	65%	3.0	16.0%	15.3%	0.7%	5.5%	4.97	6.72	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	17	11	51	226	47	30	10	65%	3.0	16.0%	15.3%	0.7%	5.5%	4.97	6.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	DET	17	11	51	226	47	30	10	65%	3.0	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	4.4%	4.97	5.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	103	436	76	44	13	100%	5.7	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	2.9%	4.97	4.89	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	105	442	82	42	13	100%	5.8	18.6%	9.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.79	4.70	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	105	442	86	41	13	100%	6.2	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.62	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	103	435	85	41	13	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.65	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	100	422	82	40	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.71	4.74	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	95	403	77	39	13	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.87	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	90	379	71	38	13	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.1%	8.7%	3.4%	4.95	5.05	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	44	186	32	19	5	100%	5.5	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	2.8%	4.90	4.82	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	54	28	8	100%	5.8	18.6%	9.5%	9.2%	2.8%	4.72	4.63	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	83	350	68	33	10	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.55	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	88	372	72	35	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.59	4.58	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	89	376	73	36	11	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.64	4.67	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	87	367	70	36	11	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	83	350	66	35	11	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.1%	8.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	91	543	2293	435	221	67	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.33	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	160	81	25	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		125	63	390	1707	253	187	41	50%	3.1	14.8%	11.0%	3.9%	2.4%	4.41	4.55	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	32	200	876	130	96	21	50%	3.1	14.8%	11.0%	3.9%	2.4%	4.41	4.55	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Marcano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	15.2%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.74	18.5%	8.9%	312	-0.46	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	89
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	86
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	84
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	83
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	82
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	81
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	81
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	80
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	80
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	80
Mitchell Traver R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SP-	5.56	11.9%	9.7%	4.1%	.392	5.21	14.3%	3.7%	82	-0.35	5.21	104	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	93	18.6%	9.7%	1.18	4.82
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70