Eliander Alcalde

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 5'9" / 171 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ATOR	23	12	74	5.86	4.92	19.6%	14.8%	—	K 14.5% · BB 17.4% · FIP 5.60
2024	20	ATOR	34	0	66	3.14	3.39	21.0%	11.6%	—	K 15.6% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.29
2025	21	MIX2 levels	16	1	38	5.02	3.60	21.9%	10.7%	—	K 16.3% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	22	0	23	4.95	4.95	19.9%	12.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTOR	14	0	15	4.77	4.70	20.9%	11.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJeff Niemann (age 25) · Patrick Halligan (age 23) · Trent Fennell (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%19.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	14	13	61	249	60	32	2	93%	4.4	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	1.0%	2.93	4.30	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	14	13	61	249	60	32	2	93%	4.4	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	0.8%	2.93	3.13	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	7	47	194	40	16	5	64%	4.2	14.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.3%	3.86	5.63	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	7	47	194	40	16	5	64%	4.2	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.6%	3.86	3.81	—
2023	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	23	12	74	332	65	49	9	52%	3.2	14.5%	17.4%	-2.9%	2.8%	5.86	5.60	—
2023	19	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	23	12	74	332	65	49	9	52%	3.2	19.6%	14.8%	4.8%	2.7%	5.86	4.92	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	34	0	66	276	58	32	3	0%	1.9	15.6%	13.7%	1.9%	1.4%	3.14	4.29	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	34	0	66	276	58	32	3	0%	1.9	15.6%	13.7%	1.9%	1.4%	3.14	4.29	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	34	0	66	276	58	32	3	0%	1.9	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	1.1%	3.14	3.39	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	38	169	37	18	3	6%	2.4	16.3%	13.4%	2.8%	1.5%	5.02	4.27	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	38	169	37	18	3	6%	2.4	16.3%	13.4%	2.8%	1.5%	5.02	4.27	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	38	169	37	18	3	6%	2.4	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	1.8%	5.02	3.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	22	0	23	97	19	12	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	33	0	35	147	31	16	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.70	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	94	27	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		98	33	285	1220	187	180	26	34%	2.9	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	2.2%	4.16	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	23	200	855	131	126	18	34%	2.9	15.3%	14.7%	0.6%	2.2%	4.16	4.86	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliander Alcalde (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	19.9%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.70	20.9%	9.8%	35	-0.25	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	84
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	84
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	81
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	80
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	80
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	80
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	79
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	79
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	79
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	79
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	78
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	78
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	78
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.5%	11.5%	1.12	4.84
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76