Eliander Alcalde
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'9" / 171 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.3%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 14 | 13 | 61 | 249 | 60 | 32 | 2 | 16.4% | 16.1% | 0.9% | 2.93 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 7 | 47 | 194 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 14.2% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 3.86 | 5.70 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 23 | 12 | 74 | 332 | 65 | 49 | 9 | 14.5% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 5.86 | 5.69 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 34 | 0 | 66 | 276 | 58 | 32 | 3 | 15.6% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 3.14 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 16 | 1 | 38 | 169 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 16.3% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 5.02 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 33 | 285 | 1220 | 187 | 180 | 27 | 15.3% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 4.89 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 23 | 200 | 855 | 131 | 126 | 19 | 15.3% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 4.89 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eliander Alcalde (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 22.6% | 13.1% | 122 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 95 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 93 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 91 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 91 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 90 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 90 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Will Kincanon R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.75 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.76 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 58 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 122 | 89 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.74 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.34 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 76 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 123 | 89 |
| Hunter Dula R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 89 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .256 | 2.89 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.77 | 2.89 | 119 | 89 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.64 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .246 | 3.81 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 169 | +0.17 | 2.90 | 215 | 89 |
| Joey Stock R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 88 |
| Jose Geraldo R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .337 | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 49 | +0.65 | 3.13 | 107 | 88 |
| Zac Ryan R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .233 | 3.93 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.07 | 3.84 | 184 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||