Javier Chacon

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ASD	33	5	77	3.61	3.29	28.3%	12.5%	—	K 20.9% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.56
2025	22	ASD	3	0	7	2.70	4.60	13.3%	20.0%	—	K 13.3% · BB 20.0% · FIP 4.51
2026	23	MIX2 levels	38	0	67	3.76	4.46	27.4%	15.4%	—	K 20.9% · BB 17.8% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	46	0	48	5.49	5.49	21.1%	16.3%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	25	0	26	5.24	5.15	21.7%	14.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSD	39	0	41	5.11	5.07	22.1%	13.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTy Madrigal (age 24) · Brendan Nail (age 23) · Kelly Secrest (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%21.1%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	1	1	0	6	0	3	1	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	16.7%	—	18.58	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	1	1	0	6	0	3	1	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	16.7%	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	11	6	41	181	60	19	7	55%	3.7	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	5.0%	3.07	5.61	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	11	6	41	181	60	19	7	55%	3.7	33.1%	10.5%	22.7%	3.9%	3.07	3.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	27	127	29	27	3	0%	1.8	17.4%	26.2%	-8.9%	0.0%	4.05	4.96	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	27	127	29	27	3	0%	1.8	22.8%	21.3%	1.6%	2.4%	4.05	5.43	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	5	77	329	93	41	6	15%	2.3	20.9%	14.7%	6.2%	2.5%	3.61	4.56	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	5	77	329	93	41	6	15%	2.3	20.9%	14.7%	6.2%	2.5%	3.61	4.56	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	5	77	329	93	41	6	15%	2.3	28.3%	12.5%	15.8%	1.8%	3.61	3.29	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	0	7	30	4	6	0	0%	2.2	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	0.0%	2.70	4.51	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	0	7	30	4	6	0	0%	2.2	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	0.0%	2.70	4.51	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	0	7	30	4	6	0	0%	2.2	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	0.0%	2.70	4.60	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	67	299	82	46	9	0%	1.8	20.9%	17.8%	3.1%	3.8%	3.76	5.67	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	67	299	82	46	9	0%	1.8	20.9%	17.8%	3.1%	3.8%	3.76	5.67	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	67	299	82	46	9	0%	1.8	27.4%	15.4%	12.0%	3.0%	3.76	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	46	0	48	203	43	33	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	16.3%	4.8%	3.1%	5.49	5.49	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	258	56	37	8	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.24	5.15	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	258	57	36	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	3.1%	5.11	5.07	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	24	16	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	14.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.24	5.15	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	38	24	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	3.1%	5.11	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	282	62	39	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	3.1%	5.16	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	117	27	0%	1.1	21.9%	14.0%	8.0%	3.1%	5.16	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		100	11	219	966	198	165	29	11%	2.2	20.5%	17.0%	3.5%	3.0%	3.58	5.15	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	10	200	884	181	150	26	11%	2.2	20.5%	17.0%	3.5%	3.0%	3.58	5.15	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Chacon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	21.1%	16.3%	3.1%	—	5.11	21.9%	7.9%	122	-0.38	—	—	—
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	87
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	84
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	83
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	83
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.66	19.4%	5.9%	190	-0.29	1.91	302	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	80
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	80
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	80
Kumar Nambiar L 2022 · 4.75 FIP	24	SU	4.75	18.5%	14.3%	2.6%	.277	4.94	14.0%	1.0%	60	+0.19	3.10	221	79
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	79
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	79
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	79
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	21.7%	14.7%	1.20	5.26
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*