Rayner Castillo

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	16	16	70	2.56	3.23	20.2%	8.3%	—	K 12.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.04
2025	21	A+DET	25	23	99	5.29	4.46	18.5%	10.6%	—	K 14.3% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.69
2026	22	A+DET	22	22	87	6.29	5.46	22.3%	11.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 13.1% · FIP 6.62
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	12	12	62	6.12	6.12	14.5%	14.2%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	7	7	39	5.81	5.74	16.3%	12.8%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBDET	10	10	61	5.58	5.51	17.3%	12.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsTommy Mace (age 23) · Reid Schaller (age 22) · Bryce Warrecker (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.12

FIP6.12

K%14.5%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	14	14	59	250	55	15	1	100%	4.2	15.0%	7.5%	7.5%	0.6%	2.88	3.11	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	14	14	59	250	55	15	1	100%	4.2	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	0.4%	2.88	2.22	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	10	43	195	34	18	8	91%	3.9	11.9%	11.5%	0.3%	5.8%	8.02	6.75	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	10	43	195	34	18	8	91%	3.9	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	4.1%	8.02	5.21	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	8	4	17	83	19	11	2	50%	2.2	15.6%	16.6%	-1.0%	3.7%	7.27	5.89	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	8	4	17	83	19	11	2	50%	2.2	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	2.4%	7.27	4.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	100%	4.4	12.8%	9.5%	3.3%	1.5%	2.56	4.04	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	100%	4.4	12.8%	9.5%	3.3%	1.5%	2.56	4.04	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	100%	4.4	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	1.4%	2.56	3.23	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	92%	3.9	14.3%	12.2%	2.0%	4.1%	5.29	5.69	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	92%	3.9	14.3%	12.2%	2.0%	4.1%	5.29	5.69	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	92%	3.9	18.5%	10.6%	7.9%	2.8%	5.29	4.46	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	87	394	88	45	19	100%	4.0	17.2%	13.1%	4.1%	6.0%	6.29	6.62	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	87	394	88	45	19	100%	4.0	17.2%	13.1%	4.1%	6.0%	6.29	6.62	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	87	394	88	45	19	100%	4.0	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	4.8%	6.29	5.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	12	12	62	262	38	37	10	100%	5.2	14.5%	14.2%	0.4%	3.8%	6.12	6.12	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	91	384	63	49	14	100%	5.7	16.3%	12.8%	3.5%	3.7%	5.81	5.74	-0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	92	389	67	47	14	100%	5.8	17.3%	12.0%	5.3%	3.6%	5.58	5.51	-0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	92	389	69	46	14	100%	6.1	17.9%	11.7%	6.1%	3.6%	5.46	5.42	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	91	383	69	45	14	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.7%	6.2%	3.6%	5.43	5.43	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	88	372	66	44	14	100%	5.9	17.8%	11.9%	6.0%	3.7%	5.48	5.51	-0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	84	355	62	43	14	100%	6.0	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	3.9%	5.58	5.64	-0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	79	334	64	39	14	100%	6.1	19.2%	11.6%	7.6%	4.1%	5.56	5.55	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	39	165	27	21	6	100%	5.6	16.3%	12.8%	3.5%	3.7%	5.81	5.74	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	61	258	45	31	9	100%	6.1	17.3%	12.0%	5.3%	3.6%	5.58	5.51	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	73	308	55	36	11	100%	6.1	17.9%	11.7%	6.1%	3.6%	5.46	5.42	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	77	325	58	38	12	100%	5.9	17.9%	11.7%	6.2%	3.6%	5.43	5.43	-0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	78	329	59	39	12	100%	6.0	17.8%	11.9%	6.0%	3.7%	5.48	5.51	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	76	321	56	39	12	100%	5.8	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	3.9%	5.58	5.64	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	73	308	59	36	12	100%	6.1	19.2%	11.6%	7.6%	4.1%	5.56	5.55	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	80	478	2019	360	240	75	100%	6.0	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	3.7%	5.54	5.15	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	151	100	31	100%	5.9	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	3.7%	5.54	5.15	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		96	89	376	1631	238	186	61	93%	3.9	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	3.8%	5.03	5.37	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	868	127	99	33	93%	3.9	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	3.8%	5.03	5.37	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rayner Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.12	14.5%	14.2%	3.8%	—	5.56	17.2%	5.0%	275	-0.56	—	—	—
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	87
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	87
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	85
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	84
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	84
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	84
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	83
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	83
Allen Webster R 2013 · 6.05 FIP	23	SP	6.05	15.9%	12.4%	5.0%	.309	4.66	14.0%	4.3%	167	-1.39	3.95	267	83
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	82
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	81
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	80
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	80
Victor Mederos R 2024 · 5.51 FIP	23	SP	5.51	13.4%	12.6%	3.5%	.322	3.93	17.6%	8.4%	198	-1.58	3.73	394	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	85	17.4%	12.2%	1.44	5.61
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Ray Harrell ('35-'45, -6 WAR*)	1.6	66	19.3%*	12.3%*	1.40*	6.15*
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Jim Britton ('67-'71, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	18.4%*	11.7%*	1.42*	5.10*
Hal Griggs ('56-'59, -4 WAR*)	1.7	116	16.8%*	11.9%*	1.33*	5.92*