Rayner Castillo
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A+
peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153143vR 134
ERA5.97
FIP5.97
K%12.8%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%-0.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 14 | 14 | 59 | 250 | 55 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 15.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.6% | 2.88 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 14 | 14 | 59 | 250 | 55 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 22.0% | 6.0% | 16.0% | 0.4% | 2.88 | 2.22 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 11 | 10 | 43 | 195 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 91% | 3.9 | 11.9% | 11.5% | 0.3% | 5.9% | 8.02 | 6.78 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 11 | 10 | 43 | 195 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 91% | 3.9 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 8.02 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 8 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 50% | 2.2 | 15.6% | 16.6% | -1.0% | 4.0% | 7.27 | 6.07 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 8 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 50% | 2.2 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 7.27 | 4.31 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 70 | 277 | 56 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 4.4 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 2.56 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 70 | 277 | 56 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 1.4% | 2.56 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 23 | 99 | 432 | 80 | 46 | 12 | 92% | 3.9 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 5.29 | 6.17 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 23 | 99 | 432 | 80 | 46 | 12 | 92% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 4.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 15 | 15 | 56 | 258 | 54 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 14.7% | 1.4% | 4.8% | 6.23 | 6.26 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 35 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.8% | 13.3% | -0.6% | 3.4% | 5.97 | 5.97 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8% | 13.3% | -0.6% | 3.4% | 5.97 | 5.97 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 121 | 532 | 89 | 69 | 19 | — | — | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.09 | 6.11 | -1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.8% | 13.3% | -0.6% | 3.4% | 5.97 | 5.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 46 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.66 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 52 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.9% | 11.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 74 | 314 | 56 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 74 | 314 | 57 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 56 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 35 | 148 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.66 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 36 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.9% | 11.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 45 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 50 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 48 | 279 | 1177 | 205 | 134 | 39 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 4.87 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 96 | 28 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 82 | 345 | 1495 | 212 | 172 | 54 | 92% | 3.9 | 14.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.34 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 48 | 200 | 868 | 123 | 100 | 31 | 92% | 3.9 | 14.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rayner Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.97 | 12.8% | 13.3% | 3.4% | — | 5.36 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 220 | -0.61 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Warrecker R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.43 | 11.3% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .271 | 3.28 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 72 | -2.15 | 2.48 | 135 | 90 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.81 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 70 | -0.81 | 5.00 | 146 | 86 |
| Tommy Mace R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 86 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 85 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 85 |
| Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.49 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | .293 | 5.36 | 14.8% | -1.7% | 88 | -0.13 | 5.03 | 185 | 85 |
| Evan Truitt R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.93 | 12.8% | 12.2% | 4.3% | .281 | 5.58 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 73 | -0.35 | 5.58 | 172 | 84 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 84 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.99 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 4.4% | .282 | 4.74 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 184 | -1.25 | 3.40 | 322 | 84 |
| Brooks Auger R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 84 |
| Troy Miller R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 12.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.35 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 45 | +0.39 | 4.96 | 168 | 83 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 83 |
| Isaiah Lowe R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.20 | 12.4% | 13.5% | 2.6% | .336 | 7.42 | 14.1% | -2.5% | 52 | +2.22 | 3.78 | 249 | 83 |
| Ben Hansen R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 82 |
| Tom Robson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.88 | 12.6% | 13.4% | 2.1% | .337 | 4.91 | 12.5% | -1.3% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.17 | 132 | 82 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 81 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.03 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .323 | 5.65 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 122 | +0.62 | 4.72 | 200 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 81 |
| Steven Brooks R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.61 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 40 | -0.81 | 4.80 | 103 | 81 |
| Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.37 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .320 | 5.45 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 105 | +0.08 | 5.37 | 174 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 73 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 1.28 | 5.44 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |