Rayner Castillo — OGILVIE

Rayner Castillo P West Michigan Whitecaps

+0.0 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2030

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%8.1%

IP99

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2030

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Tigers	14	14	59	250	55	15	1	15.0%	7.5%	0.6%	2.88	3.11	+1.2
2022	18	ROK	FCL Tigers	11	10	43	195	34	18	8	11.9%	11.5%	5.9%	8.02	6.79	-0.9
2023	19	ROK	FCL Tigers	8	4	17	83	19	11	2	15.6%	16.6%	4.0%	7.27	6.05	-0.2
2024	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	12.8%	9.5%	1.5%	2.56	4.05	+0.8
2025	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	14.3%	12.2%	4.2%	5.29	5.77	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	2	2	6	33	7	3	3	—	—	—	11.37	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	DET	18	18	99	417	78	44	14	18.6%	10.6%	3.3%	5.03	5.03	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	DET	—	—	105	450	85	47	17	18.8%	10.5%	3.7%	5.41	4.73	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	DET	22	22	122	517	104	50	16	20.1%	9.7%	3.2%	4.83	4.76	+0.7
2028	24	MLB	DET	26	26	142	597	125	54	19	20.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.59	+1.1
2029	25	MLB	DET	28	28	155	656	140	58	20	21.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.56	4.50	+1.4
2030	26	MLB	DET	30	30	162	685	148	60	21	21.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.48	+1.5
2031	27	MLB	DET	30	30	165	697	151	61	22	21.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.48	+1.5
2032	28	MLB	DET	30	30	165	695	150	61	22	21.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.50	4.51	+1.5
2033	29	MLB	DET	29	29	161	679	146	60	22	21.4%	8.9%	3.2%	4.53	4.56	+1.3
2034	30	MLB	DET	28	28	156	659	140	59	21	21.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.58	4.62	+1.2
2035	31	MLB	DET	27	27	151	636	133	58	21	21.0%	9.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.69	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	DET	26	26	145	611	126	57	21	20.7%	9.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.78	+0.9
2037	33	MLB	DET	25	25	138	583	119	55	20	20.4%	9.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.88	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	DET	24	24	131	554	111	53	20	20.0%	9.7%	3.6%	4.92	4.99	+0.5
2039	35	MLB	DET	22	22	124	522	103	52	19	19.7%	9.9%	3.7%	5.03	5.11	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			76	69	295	1270	178	137	42	14.0%	10.8%	3.3%	4.80	5.09	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			52	47	200	862	121	93	29	14.0%	10.8%	3.3%	4.80	5.09	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rayner Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	18.6%	10.6%	3.3%	—	4.61	20.8%	11.7%	419	-0.42	—	—	—
Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	96
Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	95
Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	92
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	92
Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	92
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	92
Bryce Osmond R 2026 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP-	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.47	12.2%	-2.9%	16	+1.91	5.56	113	91
David Palladino R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	91
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	91
Joe Nahas R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	15.2%	12.3%	3.2%	.270	4.69	16.6%	5.9%	149	-0.46	4.30	328	91
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	90
Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	90
Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	90
Tommy Mace R 2027 · 5.53 FIP	23	SP-	5.53	16.0%	12.1%	4.1%	.261	5.07	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.46	4.89	461	90
Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	90
Tanner Houck R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	90
Wil Crowe R 2027 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.65	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.00	4.00	518	90
Jamison Hill R 2027 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	89
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	89
Levi Thomas R 2027 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	18.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.17	5.16	116	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.4	$14M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$10M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
Totals		$8M		$78M	+$70M