Rayner Castillo — OGILVIE

Rayner Castillo P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%12.8%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%-0.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	14	14	59	250	55	15	1	100%	4.2	15.0%	7.5%	7.5%	0.6%	2.88	3.11	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	14	14	59	250	55	15	1	100%	4.2	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	0.4%	2.88	2.22	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	10	43	195	34	18	8	91%	3.9	11.9%	11.5%	0.3%	5.8%	8.02	6.75	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	10	43	195	34	18	8	91%	3.9	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	4.1%	8.02	5.21	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	8	4	17	83	19	11	2	50%	2.2	15.6%	16.6%	-1.0%	3.7%	7.27	5.89	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	8	4	17	83	19	11	2	50%	2.2	15.6%	16.6%	-1.0%	3.7%	7.27	5.89	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	8	4	17	83	19	11	2	50%	2.2	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	2.4%	7.27	4.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	100%	4.4	12.8%	9.5%	3.3%	1.5%	2.56	4.04	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	100%	4.4	12.8%	9.5%	3.3%	1.5%	2.56	4.04	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	70	277	56	23	4	100%	4.4	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	1.4%	2.56	3.23	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	92%	3.9	14.3%	12.2%	2.0%	4.1%	5.29	5.69	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	92%	3.9	14.3%	12.2%	2.0%	4.1%	5.29	5.69	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	23	99	432	80	46	12	92%	3.9	18.5%	10.6%	7.9%	2.8%	5.29	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	87	394	88	45	19	100%	4.0	17.2%	13.1%	4.1%	6.0%	6.29	6.62	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	87	394	88	45	19	100%	4.0	17.2%	13.1%	4.1%	6.0%	6.29	6.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	DET	22	22	87	394	88	45	19	100%	4.0	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	4.8%	6.29	5.31	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	26	3	4	1	100%	6.3	12.8%	13.4%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.86	5.86	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	94	420	91	49	20	—	—	21.7%	11.5%	10.2%	4.7%	6.26	6.57	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	92	389	59	47	12	100%	5.4	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	3.1%	5.55	5.46	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	94	399	66	45	12	100%	5.6	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	3.1%	5.31	5.22	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	96	404	71	44	12	100%	6.0	17.5%	11.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.15	5.09	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	96	404	72	44	12	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.9%	7.0%	3.1%	5.07	5.04	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	94	398	71	44	12	100%	5.9	17.9%	10.9%	6.9%	3.1%	5.07	5.08	-0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	91	386	68	43	12	100%	6.1	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.2%	5.12	5.16	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	87	369	65	42	12	100%	5.8	17.5%	11.3%	6.2%	3.4%	5.22	5.29	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	82	347	59	40	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	11.6%	5.5%	3.6%	5.37	5.47	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	46	194	30	24	6	100%	5.1	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	3.1%	5.55	5.46	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	66	279	46	32	9	100%	5.5	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	3.1%	5.31	5.22	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	78	329	58	36	10	100%	6.0	17.5%	11.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.15	5.09	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	84	355	63	39	11	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.9%	7.0%	3.1%	5.07	5.04	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	85	359	64	39	11	100%	6.1	17.9%	10.9%	6.9%	3.1%	5.07	5.08	-0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	84	355	63	39	11	100%	6.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.2%	5.12	5.16	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	81	342	60	39	12	100%	5.8	17.5%	11.3%	6.2%	3.4%	5.22	5.29	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	77	325	56	38	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	11.6%	5.5%	3.6%	5.37	5.47	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	600	2534	439	285	82	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	3.2%	5.21	4.83	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	146	95	27	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	3.2%	5.21	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		96	89	376	1631	238	186	61	93%	3.9	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	3.8%	5.03	5.37	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	868	127	99	33	93%	3.9	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	3.8%	5.03	5.37	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rayner Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	12.8%	13.4%	3.2%	—	5.25	16.5%	5.0%	282	-0.61	—	—	—
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	88
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	87
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.71	19.8%	10.2%	184	-1.16	3.47	340	85
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Tom Robson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	22	SP	4.89	12.6%	13.4%	2.1%	.337	4.89	12.5%	-1.3%	105	-0.00	3.23	132	83
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	82
Yoan López R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	12.6%	12.9%	2.1%	.290	4.00	22.8%	12.1%	154	-0.83	2.21	377	82
Jefry Rodriguez R 2015 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	.286	4.07	16.6%	5.2%	333	-1.13	3.30	578	82
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	80
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	80
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	80
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	89	16.8%	11.5%	1.24	5.28
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36