Jhoniel Serrano — OGILVIE

Jhoniel Serrano P FCL Marlins

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%22.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	11	9	27	122	32	16	1	82%	2.5	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	0.8%	4.94	4.12	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	11	9	27	122	32	16	1	82%	2.5	26.2%	13.1%	13.1%	0.8%	4.94	2.99	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	8	34	169	29	22	5	67%	2.9	11.7%	16.3%	-4.6%	4.9%	9.17	6.84	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	12	8	34	169	29	22	5	67%	2.9	17.2%	13.0%	4.1%	3.0%	9.17	5.23	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	53	253	51	42	2	93%	3.5	14.5%	19.9%	-5.5%	1.1%	4.61	5.02	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	53	253	51	42	2	93%	3.5	20.2%	16.6%	3.6%	0.8%	4.61	4.05	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	13	79	19	21	1	10%	1.3	19.8%	25.0%	-5.2%	2.8%	13.50	6.15	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	13	79	19	21	1	10%	1.3	19.8%	25.0%	-5.2%	2.8%	13.50	6.15	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	13	79	19	21	1	10%	1.3	24.1%	26.6%	-2.5%	1.3%	13.50	6.10	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	7	23	124	33	31	0	58%	1.9	18.1%	31.2%	-13.2%	0.0%	9.39	5.53	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	7	23	124	33	31	0	58%	1.9	18.1%	31.2%	-13.2%	0.0%	9.39	5.53	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	12	7	23	124	33	31	0	58%	1.9	26.6%	25.0%	1.6%	0.0%	9.39	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	2	2	12	51	11	10	1	100%	6.0	22.3%	20.0%	2.3%	2.9%	5.75	5.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	4	4	21	90	21	15	3	100%	5.3	22.9%	16.8%	6.1%	2.9%	5.41	5.28	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	9	38	9	6	1	100%	4.5	22.9%	16.8%	6.1%	2.9%	5.41	5.28	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	9	38	9	6	1	100%	4.5	22.9%	16.8%	6.1%	2.9%	5.41	4.90	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	199	132	22	100%	5.6	22.9%	16.8%	6.1%	2.9%	5.41	4.90	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		60	39	150	747	116	156	14	65%	2.5	15.5%	20.9%	-5.4%	1.9%	7.20	5.49	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	52	200	996	155	209	19	65%	2.5	15.5%	20.9%	-5.4%	1.9%	7.20	5.49	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhoniel Serrano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	22.3%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.28	22.9%	6.1%	21	-0.47	—	—	—
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	84
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	77
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	77
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	77
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	76
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	76
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	76
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	74
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	74
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	71
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	71
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	71
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	70
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	70
Hyun-Seok Jang R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	20	SP-	6.03	28.2%	20.1%	5.0%	.304	4.68	22.3%	8.2%	122	-1.35	4.30	146	69
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	69
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	69
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	69