Jhoniel Serrano
P
FCL Marlins
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 178 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 105
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
K%22.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 11 | 9 | 27 | 122 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 82% | 2.5 | 17.8% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 4.94 | 4.02 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 11 | 9 | 27 | 122 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 82% | 2.5 | 26.2% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 0.8% | 4.94 | 2.99 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 12 | 8 | 34 | 169 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 67% | 2.9 | 11.7% | 16.3% | -4.6% | 5.9% | 9.17 | 7.40 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 12 | 8 | 34 | 169 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 67% | 2.9 | 17.2% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 9.17 | 5.23 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 53 | 253 | 51 | 42 | 2 | 93% | 3.5 | 14.5% | 19.9% | -5.5% | 1.2% | 4.61 | 5.07 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 53 | 253 | 51 | 42 | 2 | 93% | 3.5 | 20.2% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 4.61 | 4.05 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 1 | 13 | 79 | 19 | 21 | 1 | 10% | 1.3 | 19.8% | 25.0% | -5.2% | 3.2% | 13.50 | 6.35 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 1 | 13 | 79 | 19 | 21 | 1 | 10% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 26.6% | -2.5% | 1.3% | 13.50 | 6.10 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 12 | 7 | 23 | 124 | 33 | 31 | 0 | 58% | 1.9 | 18.1% | 31.2% | -13.2% | 0.0% | 9.39 | 5.53 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 12 | 7 | 23 | 124 | 33 | 31 | 0 | 58% | 1.9 | 26.6% | 25.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 9.39 | 4.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.6 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.02 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 39 | 150 | 747 | 116 | 156 | 16 | 65% | 2.5 | 15.5% | 20.9% | -5.4% | 2.2% | 7.20 | 5.64 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 52 | 200 | 996 | 155 | 209 | 22 | 65% | 2.5 | 15.5% | 20.9% | -5.4% | 2.2% | 7.20 | 5.64 | -0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhoniel Serrano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 20 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 83 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 82 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 79 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.68 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.52 | 3.38 | 270 | 78 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 78 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 77 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 77 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 77 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 77 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 77 |
| Miguelangel Boadas R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.44 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 129 | 76 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 76 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 76 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 76 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2028 · 5.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.41 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .370 | 3.48 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 142 | -1.93 | 2.88 | 157 | 76 |
| Blair Henley R 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 76 |