Rosman Verdugo
SS Fort Wayne TinCaps| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 503 | .233/.345/.384 | 11 | 7 | 57 | — | .176/.262/.282 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+SD | 490 | .205/.341/.354 | 13 | 6 | 51 | — | .154/.267/.258 |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 533 | .238/.356/.398 | 17 | 10 | 74 | — | .191/.284/.311 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSD | 1 | .178/.273/.293 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBSD | 157 | .184/.279/.307 | 4 | 2 | 69 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBSD | 234 | .189/.283/.317 | 6 | 3 | 73 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 195 | 167 | 42 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 69 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 251 | 346 | 467 | 813 | 216 | 368 | 35 | 11 | 352 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 28 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 130 | 286 | 174 | 460 | 43 | 188 | 25 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 472 | 410 | 90 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 124 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 220 | 310 | 332 | 642 | 112 | 304 | 26 | 10 | 290 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 109 | 97 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 262 | 299 | 561 | 113 | 266 | 29 | 8 | 252 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 372 | 312 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 102 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 250 | 366 | 407 | 773 | 157 | 338 | 27 | 15 | 348 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 22 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 188 | 409 | 438 | 847 | 250 | 222 | 27 | 23 | 386 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 490 | 404 | 83 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 72 | 158 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 205 | 341 | 354 | 695 | 149 | 297 | 32 | 15 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 24 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 417 | 300 | 717 | 462 | 29 | 17 | 343 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 461 | 386 | 87 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 120 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 225 | 343 | 389 | 731 | 163 | 282 | 26 | 13 | 329 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 48 | 39 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 333 | 447 | 538 | 985 | 205 | 458 | 27 | 17 | 426 | 175 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 195 | 175 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 101 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 149 | 220 | 263 | 483 | 114 | 285 | 52 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 472 | 424 | 73 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 177 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 172 | 244 | 252 | 496 | 80 | 273 | 38 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 109 | 100 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 215 | 260 | 475 | 100 | 240 | 38 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 372 | 326 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 138 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 181 | 276 | 288 | 565 | 107 | 283 | 37 | 11 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 490 | 422 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 203 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 154 | 267 | 258 | 525 | 104 | 254 | 41 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 24 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 286 | 661 | 451 | 33 | 12 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 461 | 403 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 153 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 186 | 279 | 313 | 592 | 127 | 252 | 33 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 199 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 116 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 151 | 228 | 276 | 505 | 126 | 305 | 52 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 223 | 190 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 76 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 237 | 338 | 432 | 769 | 195 | 342 | 34 | 11 | 337 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 472 | 424 | 73 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 177 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 172 | 244 | 252 | 496 | 80 | 286 | 38 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 472 | 410 | 90 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 124 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 220 | 310 | 332 | 642 | 112 | 304 | 26 | 10 | 290 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 503 | 444 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 188 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 176 | 265 | 279 | 544 | 104 | 279 | 37 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 503 | 425 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 68 | 140 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 233 | 345 | 384 | 729 | 151 | 318 | 28 | 14 | 329 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 490 | 422 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 203 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 154 | 267 | 258 | 525 | 104 | 259 | 41 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 490 | 404 | 83 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 72 | 158 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 205 | 341 | 354 | 695 | 149 | 297 | 32 | 15 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 533 | 466 | 89 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 177 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 191 | 283 | 309 | 592 | 118 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 533 | 445 | 106 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 71 | 140 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 238 | 356 | 398 | 753 | 160 | 305 | 26 | 13 | 338 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 201 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 116 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 149 | 228 | 274 | 502 | 124 | 285 | 52 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 472 | 429 | 73 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 177 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 170 | 244 | 249 | 493 | 79 | 273 | 38 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 503 | 444 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 188 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 176 | 265 | 279 | 544 | 104 | 273 | 37 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 490 | 422 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 203 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 154 | 267 | 258 | 525 | 104 | 254 | 41 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 533 | 468 | 89 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 177 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 190 | 283 | 308 | 591 | 118 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 503 | 444 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 188 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 176 | 265 | 279 | 544 | 104 | 273 | 37 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 490 | 422 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 203 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 154 | 267 | 258 | 525 | 104 | 254 | 41 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 533 | 468 | 89 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 177 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 190 | 283 | 308 | 591 | 118 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | SD | 0% | 595 | 522 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 59 | 199 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 275 | 295 | 571 | 115 | 258 | 33 | 10 | 263 | 64 | -25 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | SD | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 273 | 293 | 566 | 114 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | SD | 35% | 455 | 400 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 147 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 187 | 281 | 309 | 590 | 123 | 260 | 32 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | SD | 46% | 506 | 443 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 160 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 192 | 285 | 320 | 605 | 128 | 263 | 32 | 10 | 276 | 73 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | SD | 52% | 541 | 474 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 168 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 195 | 288 | 327 | 614 | 131 | 265 | 31 | 10 | 280 | 76 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 54% | 555 | 487 | 96 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 170 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 197 | 290 | 330 | 620 | 133 | 266 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 54% | 558 | 490 | 98 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 170 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 199 | 290 | 332 | 622 | 133 | 267 | 30 | 10 | 283 | 78 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 54% | 553 | 485 | 96 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 55 | 169 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 197 | 288 | 327 | 616 | 130 | 266 | 31 | 10 | 280 | 76 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 53% | 543 | 478 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 168 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 195 | 286 | 321 | 607 | 126 | 265 | 31 | 10 | 277 | 73 | -17 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 57% | 530 | 466 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 166 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 192 | 282 | 314 | 596 | 122 | 263 | 31 | 10 | 272 | 71 | -19 | -1 | -2 | +6 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | SD | 35% | 157 | 138 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 184 | 279 | 307 | 586 | 122 | 256 | 32 | 10 | 268 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | SD | 46% | 234 | 206 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 74 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 128 | 258 | 32 | 10 | 274 | 73 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | SD | 52% | 280 | 246 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 87 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 286 | 324 | 610 | 131 | 260 | 31 | 10 | 278 | 76 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 54% | 301 | 264 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 195 | 287 | 328 | 615 | 133 | 261 | 31 | 10 | 280 | 77 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 54% | 303 | 266 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 288 | 329 | 617 | 133 | 262 | 30 | 10 | 281 | 78 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 54% | 300 | 263 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 195 | 286 | 325 | 611 | 130 | 261 | 31 | 10 | 278 | 76 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 53% | 288 | 254 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 283 | 319 | 602 | 126 | 260 | 31 | 10 | 275 | 73 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 57% | 301 | 265 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 94 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 190 | 280 | 311 | 591 | 122 | 258 | 31 | 10 | 270 | 71 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2164 | 1902 | 364 | 59 | 8 | 55 | 214 | 671 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 191 | 283 | 318 | 601 | 126 | 260 | 31 | 10 | 276 | 66 | -66 | -0 | -2 | +23 | +47 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 110 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 64 | 202 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 193 | 284 | 320 | 605 | 128 | 261 | 31 | 10 | 276 | 66 | -20 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6672 | 5862 | 1094 | 195 | 29 | 151 | 641 | 2249 | 102 | 106 | 55 | 187 | 278 | 307 | 585 | 120 | 269 | 34 | 10 | 265 | 66 | -139 | +1 | -4 | +48 | +96 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 62 | 219 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 187 | 278 | 310 | 588 | 123 | 270 | 34 | 10 | 265 | 66 | -20 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 461 PAwOBA .323 → .262 (−60)K% 26.0% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 9.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.027 | 19.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×1.027 | 4.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.978 | ×1.027 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.63% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .323 → .262; ISO .163 → .130; BABIP .282 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 24 PAwOBA .335 → .293 (−42)K% 29.2% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 12.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 46.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 45.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .335 → .293; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .462 → .451. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 490 PAwOBA .314 → .243 (−70)K% 32.2% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.24% | ÷0.989 | ×1.270 | — | — | 41.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.69% | ÷0.984 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 11.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.14% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×1.042 | 19.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | ×0.954 | ×1.042 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.120 | ×0.850 | ×0.954 | ×1.042 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.28% | ÷0.941 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.68% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 124, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .314 → .243; ISO .149 → .113; BABIP .297 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 372 PAwOBA .342 → .260 (−82)K% 27.4% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.42% | ÷1.002 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.52% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 10.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 20.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.76% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 122, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .260; ISO .157 → .118; BABIP .338 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 109 PAwOBA .246 → .198 (−48)K% 29.4% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.36% | ÷0.982 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.050 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.082 | ×0.850 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .246 → .198; ISO .113 → .091; BABIP .266 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 472 PAwOBA .284 → .218 (−65)K% 26.3% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.27% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.53% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.53% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.84% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 8.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .284 → .218; ISO .112 → .081; BABIP .304 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Padres · 195 PAwOBA .350 → .219 (−131)K% 35.4% → 51.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.38% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.28% | ÷1.015 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.038 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.038 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | 2.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.081 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.038 | 5.35% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 19.5 → +3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .350 → .219; ISO .216 → .126; BABIP .368 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .