T.J. Brock
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.0%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%14.6%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 10 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 29.1% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 5.11 | 3.67 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 47 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 87 | 23 | 8 | 29.7% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 11 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.79 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 1 | 76 | 334 | 106 | 40 | 11 | 31.6% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 3.72 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 3 | 200 | 875 | 278 | 105 | 29 | 31.6% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| T.J. Brock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.36 | 23.9% | 14.4% | 154 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 92 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 89 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 87 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 86 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 85 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 84 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 84 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 84 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.07 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.56 | 24.9% | 15.1% | 70 | -0.51 | 3.46 | 290 | 83 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 83 |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 82 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .238 | 4.87 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 69 | +1.50 | 3.37 | 292 | 82 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$1M | ||