Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.1% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.3% | 10.7% | 28.6% | 1.8% | 5.11 | 2.05 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 87 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 11.1% | 18.7% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 87 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.3% | 9.9% | 27.5% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 3.08 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 9% | 1.0 | 44.4% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 0.79 | 1.32 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 9% | 1.0 | 44.4% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 0.79 | 1.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 93 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.4% | 11.1% | 20.4% | 3.1% | 3.91 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 89 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 11.0% | 19.6% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 85 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 11.0% | 18.9% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 79 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 11.1% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 11.0% | 19.6% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 51 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 11.0% | 18.9% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 56 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 11.1% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 0 | 111 | 468 | 140 | 52 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 11.0% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 3.75 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 252 | 94 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 11.0% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 1 | 76 | 334 | 106 | 40 | 11 | 1% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 12.0% | 19.6% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 3.71 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 3 | 200 | 875 | 276 | 105 | 28 | 1% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 12.0% | 19.6% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| T.J. Brock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.91 | 31.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.11 | 30.0% | 19.0% | 200 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.02 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.85 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.83 | 2.85 | 174 | 90 |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 87 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.93 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .250 | 4.11 | 26.1% | 15.2% | 157 | +1.18 | 2.93 | 335 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.47 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 41 | +1.99 | 3.48 | 138 | 84 |
| Mychal Givens R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.86 | 30.7% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.32 | 28.3% | 20.0% | 218 | +0.46 | 1.75 | 526 | 83 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.34 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.06 | 331 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 80 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 80 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.27 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.07 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.20 | 2.74 | 178 | 80 |
| AJ Ramos R 2028 · 2.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.89 | 31.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .247 | 3.43 | 26.8% | 14.0% | 142 | +0.54 | 2.55 | 266 | 80 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2029 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 80 |
| Lou Trivino R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 157 | +0.36 | 2.39 | 579 | 80 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 79 |
| Alex Lange R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.05 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .273 | 4.00 | 26.4% | 10.5% | 108 | +0.95 | 3.05 | 489 | 79 |
| Nick Goody R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.13 | 32.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.48 | 26.3% | 14.9% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.31 | 305 | 77 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.45 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | .238 | 4.87 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 69 | +1.42 | 3.45 | 292 | 77 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.69 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.84 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | +0.15 | 3.31 | 166 | 77 |
| Matt Jachec R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 28.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 120 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 30.4% | 11.0% | 1.23 | 4.02 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |