Evan Yates
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.8
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 3 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.79 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 13 | 93 | 404 | 107 | 41 | 3 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.0% | 4.27 | 3.43 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 2 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 6 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.22 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 85 | 39 | 10 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 99 | 426 | 91 | 45 | 10 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.00 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 105 | 44 | 12 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 119 | 47 | 14 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 551 | 127 | 49 | 15 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 133 | 563 | 130 | 50 | 15 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 133 | 563 | 130 | 50 | 15 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 551 | 126 | 50 | 15 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 534 | 121 | 49 | 15 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 116 | 48 | 15 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 110 | 47 | 15 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 103 | 45 | 14 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 96 | 44 | 14 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 89 | 42 | 14 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 82 | 41 | 13 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 15 | 105 | 465 | 96 | 56 | 4 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 4.63 | 3.36 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 29 | 200 | 886 | 183 | 107 | 8 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 4.63 | 3.36 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Yates (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.14 | 22.9% | 13.8% | 364 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 95 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 94 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 93 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 93 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 93 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 92 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 91 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 90 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 89 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 89 |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 89 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 89 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.47 | 20.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 27.7% | 16.5% | 64 | -0.80 | 3.67 | 219 | 88 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 88 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .302 | 4.62 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.21 | 2.74 | 347 | 88 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $13M | +$7M |
| Totals | $16M | $91M | +$75M | ||