Evan Yates

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#906ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+Aberdeen Iron…	3	0	5	5.79	1.17	40.9%	13.6%	—	K 40.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 1.37
2025	22	MIX3 levels	25	13	93	4.27	2.54	26.5%	10.1%	—	K 20.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.42
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	116	4.73	4.05	20.0%	9.5%	—	K 16.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	1	1	2	5.10	5.10	16.2%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBBAL	6	6	36	5.00	4.95	17.5%	10.3%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBBAL	8	8	49	4.90	4.87	18.2%	10.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 3.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Jacob Meador (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%16.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.17	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	26.5%	10.1%	16.3%	0.7%	4.27	2.54	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	2.5%	4.73	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	81	343	60	35	10	100%	5.8	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	2.9%	4.93	4.88	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	74	312	57	31	9	100%	6.2	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.80	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	70	296	54	30	9	100%	5.8	18.4%	10.0%	8.3%	2.9%	4.80	4.81	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	66	279	51	28	8	100%	6.0	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.84	4.88	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	61	258	47	27	8	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	3.2%	4.94	5.01	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	56	235	42	25	8	100%	6.2	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.4%	5.09	5.19	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	36	152	27	16	5	100%	6.0	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	3.0%	5.00	4.95	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	49	207	38	21	6	100%	6.1	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.90	4.87	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	42	23	7	100%	6.0	18.4%	10.0%	8.3%	3.1%	4.87	4.88	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	43	24	7	100%	6.2	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	3.2%	4.91	4.95	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	41	24	8	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	3.3%	5.02	5.09	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	50	211	37	23	7	100%	6.2	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.5%	5.17	5.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	299	1262	228	129	40	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.98	4.62	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	86	27	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.98	4.62	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		53	36	213	942	172	104	20	68%	4.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	2.1%	4.56	4.11	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	883	161	98	19	68%	4.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	2.1%	4.56	4.11	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 92 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.71 (+0.69)K% 19.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.810	15.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 24 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.97 (+1.03)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.770	17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.00%	—	×1.150	10.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 72 IPFIP 2.31 → 3.30 (+0.99)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.97%	—	×0.740	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.65%	—	×1.180	11.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.31 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.85 (+0.65)K% 22.4% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.770	17.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.59%	—	×1.150	12.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.229	×1.250	1.20%

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 5 IPFIP 1.37 → 2.43 (+1.05)K% 40.9% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.770	31.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.150	15.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.026	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.37 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Yates (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	16.2%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.83	18.0%	7.8%	225	-0.27	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	88
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	87
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	86
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	86
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	86
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	86
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	84
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Brett Daniels R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.46	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.51	3.95	270	83
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	83
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	17.7%	10.4%	1.16	4.93
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jim Brower ('07)	2.9	72	15.7%	10.1%	1.10	4.67
Vladimir Nunez ('09)	2.2	74	17.0%	10.3%	1.12	4.83
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Paul Mirabella ('78-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.5	71	17.2%*	10.7%*	0.95*	4.64*