Evan Yates — OGILVIE

Evan Yates P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%19.4%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP64

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.17	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	26.5%	10.1%	16.3%	0.7%	4.27	2.54	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	16	16	78	350	70	32	8	100%	4.9	16.2%	10.1%	6.1%	2.7%	5.21	4.51	+0.4
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	12	12	64	271	53	31	7	100%	5.4	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	2.6%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.78	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	BAL	—	—	142	621	123	63	15	—	—	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	2.4%	5.00	4.61	+1.3
2026 FULL	23	MLB	BAL	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.40	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BAL	11	11	66	278	57	29	7	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.6%	9.8%	2.6%	4.59	4.53	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	BAL	11	11	67	281	59	28	7	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	2.6%	4.48	4.41	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	BAL	11	11	67	281	60	28	7	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.6%	4.42	4.39	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	BAL	11	11	66	277	59	28	8	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.7%	4.42	4.42	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	BAL	11	11	64	269	57	27	8	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.51	+0.1
2032	29	MLB	BAL	10	10	61	256	54	26	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.64	-0.1
2033	30	MLB	BAL	10	10	57	241	50	26	8	100%	5.7	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.82	-0.2
2034	31	MLB	BAL	9	9	53	225	45	25	8	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.0%	9.3%	3.4%	4.90	5.02	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	BAL	5	5	29	122	25	13	3	100%	5.8	20.4%	10.6%	9.8%	2.7%	4.64	4.58	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	BAL	8	8	45	190	40	19	5	100%	5.6	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2029	26	MLB	BAL	9	9	53	224	48	22	6	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.7%	4.47	4.44	+0.1
2030	27	MLB	BAL	9	9	56	236	51	24	7	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2031	28	MLB	BAL	10	10	57	241	51	24	7	100%	5.7	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
2032	29	MLB	BAL	9	9	55	232	49	24	7	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.70	-0.1
2033	30	MLB	BAL	9	9	53	224	46	24	7	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	3.3%	4.79	4.89	-0.2
2034	31	MLB	BAL	8	8	50	211	43	23	7	100%	6.2	20.2%	11.0%	9.3%	3.5%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			67	67	398	1679	352	173	50	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.27	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	177	87	25	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.27	+2.6
Career	—			44	29	175	776	146	85	14	66%	4.0	18.9%	10.9%	7.9%	1.8%	4.73	3.87	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—			50	33	200	887	167	97	16	66%	4.0	18.9%	10.9%	7.9%	1.8%	4.73	3.87	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Yates (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	19.4%	11.5%	2.6%	—	4.44	20.9%	10.8%	199	-0.29	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	91
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	90
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	87
Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	86
Derek True R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	23	SP-	4.76	18.5%	10.5%	3.5%	.333	4.67	17.6%	5.9%	73	-0.09	4.50	170	86
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	86
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	23	SP-	4.25	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.81	18.9%	7.5%	176	+0.56	3.93	268	86
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	6.03	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.83	2.73	357	85
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	19.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.257	4.28	11.0%	3.6%	131	-0.16	3.95	229	85
Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP-	5.05	16.3%	9.9%	3.8%	.275	5.83	12.5%	3.6%	64	+0.78	5.05	146	85
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	84
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	20.8%	13.7%	2.9%	.309	3.76	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.91	2.15	702	84
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	18.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.306	4.68	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.34	3.90	371	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2028 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	16.0%	10.5%	2.2%	.338	3.79	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.49	3.79	143	84
Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP-	4.00	17.5%	8.1%	2.5%	.275	3.50	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.50	2.73	202	84
Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	17.6%	11.2%	3.6%	.282	9.58	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.60	4.98	105	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	83
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	22.8%	10.1%	2.0%	.339	3.40	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.17	3.40	233	83
Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.47	17.1%	5.7%	121	+0.54	3.93	223	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	63	20.8%	10.4%	1.09	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99