Evan Yates — OGILVIE

Evan Yates P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%19.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.17	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	26.5%	10.1%	16.3%	0.7%	4.27	2.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	5	4	24	100	23	9	3	80%	4.9	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	3.0%	2.96	3.94	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BAL	20	19	92	416	80	40	10	95%	4.6	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	2.4%	5.20	4.01	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	5	23	4	3	1	100%	5.4	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	121	539	107	52	14	—	—	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.73	4.76	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	116	491	100	52	13	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.55	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	498	103	50	13	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.6%	4.50	4.43	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	498	105	49	13	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.44	4.40	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	116	490	103	48	13	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	475	99	47	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.52	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	454	94	46	13	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.65	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	101	426	87	45	13	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.2%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	94	398	79	43	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.9%	9.1%	3.4%	4.91	5.03	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	51	215	44	23	6	100%	5.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.7%	4.68	4.61	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	79	334	69	33	9	100%	5.6	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.56	4.49	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	94	397	83	39	11	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.51	4.47	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	88	41	12	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	88	42	12	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	98	414	86	42	13	100%	6.1	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.72	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	93	393	80	41	13	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	88	372	74	40	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.9%	9.1%	3.5%	4.99	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	118	702	2964	612	302	89	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.30	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	86	25	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		53	36	213	942	172	104	20	68%	4.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	2.1%	4.56	4.11	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	883	161	98	19	68%	4.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	2.1%	4.56	4.11	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Yates (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	19.4%	11.8%	2.6%	—	4.46	20.7%	10.5%	352	-0.30	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	91
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	90
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	90
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	86
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	86
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	86
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
Brett Daniels R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.46	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.51	3.95	270	83
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	83
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	105	20.6%	10.3%	1.09	4.59
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67