Jackson Wentworth

Jackson Wentworth P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%15.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	26	26	124	534	116	47	13	100%	4.8	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	3.6%	4.35	4.92	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	26	26	124	534	116	47	13	100%	4.8	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	3.6%	4.35	4.92	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	26	26	124	534	116	47	13	100%	4.8	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	2.4%	4.35	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	24	115	502	89	41	18	96%	4.6	14.4%	9.0%	5.4%	4.3%	5.24	5.39	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	24	115	502	89	41	18	96%	4.6	14.4%	9.0%	5.4%	4.3%	5.24	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	TOR	25	24	115	502	89	41	18	96%	4.6	17.7%	8.2%	9.6%	3.6%	5.24	4.61	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	7	31	5	3	1	100%	7.3	15.9%	11.2%	4.7%	3.2%	5.29	5.29	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	122	533	94	44	19	—	—	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	3.6%	5.25	5.38	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	115	487	84	51	15	100%	5.5	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.1%	5.11	5.06	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	117	493	89	50	15	100%	5.8	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	3.1%	4.98	4.93	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	117	493	91	49	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.90	4.87	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	115	486	90	48	15	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.90	0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	471	87	47	15	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.1%	8.4%	3.2%	4.94	4.98	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	106	450	82	46	15	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	100	423	75	45	15	100%	5.9	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.6%	5.19	5.29	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	51	215	37	23	7	100%	5.7	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.1%	5.11	5.06	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	78	329	60	33	10	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	3.1%	4.98	4.93	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	93	393	73	39	12	100%	5.8	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.90	4.87	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	98	414	77	41	13	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.90	0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	99	418	77	42	14	100%	6.2	18.4%	10.1%	8.4%	3.2%	4.94	4.98	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	75	42	14	100%	6.1	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	92	388	69	41	14	100%	6.1	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.6%	5.19	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	609	2569	468	261	84	100%	6.0	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	3.3%	5.00	4.64	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	154	86	28	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	3.3%	5.00	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		51	50	239	1036	161	99	41	98%	4.7	15.6%	9.6%	6.0%	3.9%	4.78	5.15	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	867	135	83	34	98%	4.7	15.6%	9.6%	6.0%	3.9%	4.78	5.15	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Wentworth (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	15.9%	11.2%	3.2%	—	4.95	18.0%	7.8%	349	-0.34	—	—	—
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	91
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	90
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	90
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	89
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	88
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	88
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	88
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	87
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	87
Jeff Thompson R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	87
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	86
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	86
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	86
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	86
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	86
Wil Crowe R 2018 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.72	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.08	3.92	518	86
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	86
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	86
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	109	17.9%	10.3%	1.25	5.03
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25