Jackson Wentworth
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+0.4
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.5 · 2029
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 26 | 26 | 124 | 534 | 116 | 47 | 13 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 101 | 49 | 16 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 129 | 546 | 108 | 53 | 16 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 122 | 53 | 18 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 138 | 57 | 20 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 145 | 59 | 21 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 148 | 60 | 21 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.47 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 147 | 60 | 22 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 143 | 59 | 21 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 138 | 58 | 21 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 131 | 57 | 21 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 124 | 55 | 20 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 117 | 54 | 20 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 109 | 52 | 20 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 101 | 50 | 19 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 92 | 48 | 18 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 28 | 133 | 573 | 96 | 58 | 19 | 16.8% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.81 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 860 | 144 | 87 | 28 | 16.8% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.81 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Wentworth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.51 | 21.3% | 12.4% | 451 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 96 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 94 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 91 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.96 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 60 | +0.05 | 4.91 | 157 | 90 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 90 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 90 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 90 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.58 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 297 | -0.16 | 4.31 | 418 | 90 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 89 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 89 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 89 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 89 |
| Josh Grosz R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.75 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 243 | 89 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.04 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .340 | 5.31 | 12.4% | 2.9% | 280 | +0.27 | 5.04 | 380 | 89 |
| Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .267 | 4.04 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 200 | -0.32 | 3.21 | 670 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .353 | 4.80 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 305 | -0.01 | 3.98 | 481 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.4 | $13M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.2 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $76M | +$65M | ||