Gage Ziehl

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 223 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#329ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	22	21	107	4.12	2.80	19.8%	4.2%	—	K 14.8% · BB 5.1% · FIP 3.67
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	122	4.28	3.62	24.7%	4.8%	—	K 20.3% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	1	1	2	4.23	4.23	18.3%	3.3%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBBOS	5	5	30	4.13	4.10	19.3%	3.6%	0.4
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBBOS	8	8	48	4.10	4.08	19.8%	3.9%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 8.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 80%

CompsNick Fraze (age 24) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Dustin Crenshaw (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%18.3%

BB%3.3%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.1%	4.12	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.1%	4.12	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	19.8%	4.2%	15.6%	1.5%	4.12	2.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	522	129	25	19	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.0%	15.3%	4.3%	4.28	4.35	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	522	129	25	19	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.0%	15.3%	4.3%	4.28	4.35	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	522	129	25	19	100%	4.9	24.7%	4.8%	19.9%	3.6%	4.28	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	3.4%	4.23	4.23	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	96	404	78	15	14	100%	6.0	19.3%	3.6%	15.7%	3.4%	4.18	4.15	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	92	390	77	15	13	100%	6.2	19.8%	3.9%	15.9%	3.3%	4.15	4.13	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	89	377	75	16	13	100%	6.0	19.9%	4.2%	15.7%	3.4%	4.16	4.17	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	85	360	71	16	12	100%	6.1	19.8%	4.4%	15.4%	3.5%	4.22	4.26	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	79	335	66	15	12	100%	6.1	19.6%	4.6%	15.0%	3.6%	4.32	4.39	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	72	304	58	15	12	100%	6.0	19.2%	4.9%	14.3%	3.8%	4.47	4.57	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	270	51	14	11	100%	5.8	18.8%	5.3%	13.6%	4.0%	4.65	4.77	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	56	236	43	13	10	100%	6.2	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	4.3%	4.86	4.99	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	5	5	30	127	24	5	4	100%	6.0	19.3%	3.6%	15.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.10	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	48	203	40	8	7	100%	6.0	19.8%	3.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.10	4.08	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	48	10	8	100%	5.7	19.9%	4.2%	15.7%	3.3%	4.11	4.12	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	52	12	9	100%	6.2	19.8%	4.4%	15.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.21	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	50	12	9	100%	6.1	19.6%	4.6%	15.0%	3.5%	4.27	4.34	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	48	12	9	100%	5.9	19.2%	4.9%	14.3%	3.7%	4.42	4.52	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	54	228	43	12	9	100%	6.0	18.8%	5.3%	13.6%	3.9%	4.59	4.71	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	48	203	37	11	8	100%	6.0	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	4.2%	4.80	4.93	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	419	1770	343	82	63	100%	6.0	19.4%	4.6%	14.8%	3.6%	4.33	4.01	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	39	30	100%	6.0	19.4%	4.6%	14.8%	3.6%	4.33	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		47	46	229	977	174	49	32	98%	4.9	17.8%	5.1%	12.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.03	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	853	152	43	28	98%	4.9	17.8%	5.1%	12.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.03	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 81 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.37 (+0.90)K% 27.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.12%	—	×0.810	21.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.100	5.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 41 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.30 (+0.38)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.64%	—	×0.860	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×0.900	3.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 74 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.14 (+1.12)K% 20.2% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.19%	—	×0.740	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.49%	—	×1.180	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.842	×1.300	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 29 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.47 (+0.44)K% 18.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.85%	—	×0.770	14.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.10%	—	×1.150	4.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 4 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.84 (+0.74)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.810	15.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.030	×1.200	5.55%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Ziehl (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.15	19.7%	15.8%	277	-0.08	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.11	17.2%	6.8%	157	+1.25	3.86	278	85
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	81
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	79
Boof Bonser R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	20.0%	5.7%	4.3%	.294	4.33	17.8%	10.5%	291	-0.16	3.80	417	79
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	78
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	77
Thomas Harrington R 2024 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	20.6%	4.1%	2.6%	.271	5.04	18.2%	10.3%	206	+1.73	3.31	448	77
Brian Van Belle R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP	4.86	19.1%	4.5%	5.1%	.332	5.12	18.2%	12.0%	372	+0.26	3.08	556	77
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.50	459	76
Raynel Espinal R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	14.6%	3.5%	2.0%	.330	3.01	25.6%	18.2%	216	-0.38	2.48	507	76
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	76
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Nathan Wiles R 2022 · 4.88 FIP	24	SP	4.88	15.6%	3.6%	4.8%	.266	4.44	17.6%	11.5%	311	-0.44	4.17	399	76
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	75
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.90	16.9%	6.9%	145	+0.76	3.74	365	75
Andy Sonnanstine R 2007 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP	3.95	17.5%	4.3%	3.2%	.320	4.29	14.4%	8.8%	374	+0.34	3.77	540	75
Juan Nicasio R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	24	SP	3.40	19.4%	5.0%	2.4%	.298	4.18	17.2%	9.3%	309	+0.78	2.46	719	74
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	74
Duncan Robinson R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP	3.41	16.3%	4.4%	2.1%	.324	4.10	10.2%	0.3%	23	+0.69	3.41	279	74
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	79	19.3%	4.3%	1.38	4.32
Edward Mujica ('17)	2.8	69	19.1%	3.9%	1.30	3.92
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Craig Lefferts ('83-'94, 10 WAR*)	5.7	95	19.5%*	6.7%*	1.40*	3.93*