Gage Ziehl — OGILVIE

Gage Ziehl P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 223 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%13.8%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—55

CMD5060

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.1%	4.12	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.1%	4.12	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	19.8%	4.2%	15.6%	1.5%	4.12	2.80	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	23	110	477	118	24	18	100%	4.8	20.1%	5.3%	14.8%	4.4%	4.32	4.50	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	23	110	477	118	24	18	100%	4.8	20.1%	5.3%	14.8%	4.4%	4.32	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	BOS	17	17	81	354	96	18	13	100%	4.8	27.1%	5.1%	22.0%	3.7%	4.33	3.47	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	BOS	6	6	29	123	22	6	5	100%	4.9	17.9%	4.9%	13.0%	4.1%	4.30	4.44	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	6	26	4	1	1	100%	6.1	13.8%	4.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	116	503	122	25	19	—	—	24.2%	5.0%	19.2%	3.7%	4.33	4.49	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	111	468	75	21	13	100%	5.5	15.9%	4.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.27	4.21	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	474	81	22	13	100%	5.9	17.2%	4.6%	12.6%	2.8%	4.18	4.12	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	474	85	22	13	100%	5.9	17.9%	4.7%	13.2%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	110	467	84	23	13	100%	6.1	18.0%	4.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.13	4.12	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	453	81	23	13	100%	6.0	17.8%	5.0%	12.8%	2.9%	4.18	4.21	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	102	432	76	23	13	100%	6.0	17.6%	5.2%	12.4%	3.1%	4.28	4.34	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	96	407	70	22	13	100%	6.0	17.2%	5.5%	11.7%	3.3%	4.42	4.52	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	379	64	22	13	100%	6.0	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	3.5%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	351	58	22	13	100%	5.9	16.4%	6.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.81	4.95	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	49	207	33	9	6	100%	5.4	15.9%	4.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.23	4.17	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	75	317	54	15	8	100%	5.8	17.2%	4.6%	12.6%	2.7%	4.14	4.08	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	67	18	10	100%	5.9	17.9%	4.7%	13.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.04	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	94	397	71	19	11	100%	5.9	18.0%	4.9%	13.1%	2.7%	4.09	4.08	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	96	405	72	20	12	100%	6.0	17.8%	5.0%	12.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.17	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	93	393	69	21	12	100%	5.8	17.6%	5.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.24	4.30	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	65	21	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	5.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.38	4.48	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	84	355	60	21	12	100%	6.0	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	3.4%	4.55	4.67	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	54	21	12	100%	6.0	16.4%	6.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	125	746	3151	545	164	94	100%	6.0	17.3%	5.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.28	3.94	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	146	44	25	100%	6.0	17.3%	5.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.28	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		45	44	217	932	163	49	31	98%	4.8	17.5%	5.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.22	4.09	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	858	150	45	28	98%	4.8	17.5%	5.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.22	4.09	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Ziehl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	13.8%	4.4%	2.8%	—	4.14	17.0%	12.4%	335	-0.23	—	—	—
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	90
Max Beatty R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP	4.31	11.8%	3.7%	3.2%	.264	3.88	13.2%	6.8%	46	-0.43	3.88	117	86
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	85
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	85
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	84
Erik Swanson R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP	3.98	15.5%	3.6%	3.2%	.340	4.17	23.7%	16.9%	197	+0.19	1.60	606	84
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	83
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	82
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	82
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	82
Raynel Espinal R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	14.6%	3.5%	2.0%	.330	3.01	25.6%	18.2%	216	-0.38	2.48	507	81
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	81
Domingo Germán R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP	3.90	14.5%	6.4%	2.2%	.260	3.89	25.3%	17.5%	352	-0.01	3.29	777	81
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	81
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	81
Brannon Easterling R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP	4.38	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	.293	3.95	12.9%	5.1%	252	-0.43	3.50	334	81
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	81
Logan Shore R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	15.0%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	4.26	14.5%	4.1%	170	+0.40	3.09	386	81
Chris Beck R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	24	SP	3.22	15.6%	6.5%	1.1%	.278	4.93	15.7%	5.2%	217	+1.71	3.22	313	81
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	100	17.0%	5.1%	1.16	4.32
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46