Gage Ziehl — OGILVIE

Gage Ziehl P Portland Sea Dogs

+1.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 223 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.0 · 2029

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%12.5%

IP103

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	14.8%	5.1%	2.0%	4.12	3.62	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	2	2	7	39	11	2	0	—	—	—	6.14	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	19	19	103	435	87	33	12	20.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.24	+1.2
2026 Total	23	MLB	BOS	—	—	110	474	98	35	12	20.6%	7.3%	2.5%	4.37	3.96	+1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	BOS	22	22	122	513	107	37	14	20.9%	7.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.14	+1.6
2028	25	MLB	BOS	25	25	135	570	122	41	16	21.3%	7.2%	2.7%	4.13	4.09	+1.9
2029	26	MLB	BOS	26	26	142	600	129	43	16	21.6%	7.2%	2.7%	4.10	4.08	+2.0
2030	27	MLB	BOS	26	26	145	612	132	44	17	21.6%	7.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+2.0
2031	28	MLB	BOS	26	26	145	611	132	44	17	21.6%	7.3%	2.8%	4.11	4.12	+1.9
2032	29	MLB	BOS	26	26	142	597	128	44	17	21.4%	7.3%	2.8%	4.14	4.16	+1.8
2033	30	MLB	BOS	25	25	137	580	123	43	17	21.2%	7.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.22	+1.7
2034	31	MLB	BOS	24	24	132	559	117	42	17	21.0%	7.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	+1.5
2035	32	MLB	BOS	23	23	127	537	111	41	16	20.7%	7.7%	3.1%	4.33	4.38	+1.3
2036	33	MLB	BOS	22	22	122	513	105	41	16	20.4%	7.9%	3.1%	4.42	4.48	+1.1
2037	34	MLB	BOS	21	21	115	487	98	39	16	20.1%	8.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+0.9
2038	35	MLB	BOS	20	20	109	459	90	38	15	19.7%	8.3%	3.4%	4.64	4.71	+0.7
2039	36	MLB	BOS	18	18	102	429	83	37	15	19.2%	8.6%	3.5%	4.77	4.85	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	23	114	494	78	25	9	15.9%	5.1%	1.9%	4.25	3.44	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—			42	40	200	864	136	44	16	15.9%	5.1%	1.9%	4.25	3.44	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Ziehl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	20.0%	7.5%	2.7%	—	4.10	21.3%	14.1%	399	-0.14	—	—	—
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	5.02	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.28	3.74	204	95
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	95
Will Ethridge R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.50	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.39	3.57	227	94
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	93
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	17.6%	5.5%	2.4%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.15	3.18	237	93
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	93
Jack Cushing R 2027 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.69	18.2%	11.3%	332	+1.01	3.68	523	93
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	92
Gabe Mosser R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.58	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.81	3.35	541	92
Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	92
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	92
Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	5.37	11.6%	2.7%	93	+1.85	3.52	175	92
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	92
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	91
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	91
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	90
Luis Santos R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	17.0%	6.5%	3.7%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.39	3.50	472	90
Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.99	21.6%	13.8%	65	+0.16	3.83	155	90
Keegan Yuhl R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	16.6%	7.0%	1.6%	.289	3.96	15.4%	8.7%	144	+0.49	3.47	242	90
Chris Devenski R 2027 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	16.8%	7.2%	2.7%	.298	2.89	27.7%	21.7%	236	-1.19	2.10	608	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.0	$17M	+$17M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.9	$18M	+$17M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.8	$17M	+$14M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.7	$17M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.5	$15M	+$8M
Totals		$19M		$102M	+$83M