Brian Van Belle
P
Durham Bulls
+1.5
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.4 · 2026
ERA4.13
FIP4.13
xFIP3.92
SIERA3.80
K%19.5%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%13.0%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2026
K†4550
SI (25%)
CH (43%)
FB (33%)
SL-1.0 (23%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 18 | 18 | 79 | 330 | 82 | 13 | 12 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.10 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 28 | 24 | 137 | 594 | 135 | 20 | 33 | 18.0% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 5.31 | 5.80 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 27 | 25 | 141 | 605 | 134 | 50 | 27 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 4.46 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 30 | 9 | 94 | 411 | 87 | 30 | 10 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 3.97 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 26 | 18 | 113 | 467 | 94 | 17 | 12 | 18.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 3.34 | 3.10 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 85 | 28 | 12 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 100 | 422 | 82 | 28 | 12 | 19.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 79 | 28 | 12 | 19.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 75 | 28 | 12 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 71 | 27 | 11 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 66 | 26 | 11 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 68 | 23 | 11 | 20.3% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 62 | 22 | 11 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 56 | 21 | 10 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 38 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 51 | 21 | 10 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 94 | 565 | 2407 | 444 | 142 | 107 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.38 | 4.74 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 33 | 200 | 853 | 157 | 50 | 38 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.38 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brian Van Belle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.28 | 19.4% | 12.6% | 289 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Barry Enright R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.41 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | .306 | 3.90 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.49 | 3.20 | 315 | 68 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 66 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.13 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .278 | 2.34 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.79 | 2.16 | 287 | 66 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.77 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 4.21 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.44 | 3.77 | 725 | 66 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.11 | 158 | 65 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.34 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | .267 | 4.58 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | +0.24 | 3.17 | 300 | 65 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 64 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.55 | 14.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | .342 | 3.74 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 157 | +0.19 | 3.32 | 493 | 64 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 64 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .279 | 2.99 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 60 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 385 | 63 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 63 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 63 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 62 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.23 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | .327 | 4.11 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.12 | 2.94 | 819 | 61 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 61 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | .258 | 5.04 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.44 | 4.13 | 300 | 60 |
| Carlos Torres R 2029 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.68 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.49 | 2.89 | 326 | 60 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 60 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 59 |
| Tony Barnette R 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 59 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.1 | $9M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $38M | +$25M | ||