Brian Van Belle — OGILVIE

Brian Van Belle P Durham Bulls

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.01

FIP4.01

K%17.1%

BB%3.9%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL7070

CMD5555

K†4040

SI (25%)

CH (43%)

FB (33%)

SL-1.0 (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	18	18	79	330	82	13	12	100%	4.4	19.1%	4.5%	14.6%	5.1%	4.10	4.86	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	18	18	79	330	82	13	12	100%	4.4	24.8%	3.9%	20.9%	3.6%	4.10	3.49	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	137	594	135	20	33	86%	4.9	18.0%	3.8%	14.3%	6.8%	5.31	5.79	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	137	594	135	20	33	86%	4.9	22.7%	3.4%	19.4%	5.6%	5.31	4.69	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	605	134	50	27	93%	5.2	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	5.0%	4.46	5.33	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	605	134	50	27	93%	5.2	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	5.0%	4.46	5.33	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	141	605	134	50	27	93%	5.2	22.1%	8.3%	13.9%	4.5%	4.46	4.75	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	30	9	94	411	87	30	10	30%	3.1	17.6%	6.6%	11.0%	2.7%	4.42	3.92	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	30	9	94	411	87	30	10	30%	3.1	17.6%	6.6%	11.0%	2.7%	4.42	3.92	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	30	9	94	411	87	30	10	30%	3.1	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.4%	4.42	3.59	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	113	467	94	17	12	69%	4.4	16.9%	3.5%	13.4%	1.8%	3.34	3.13	+2.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	113	467	94	17	12	69%	4.4	16.9%	3.5%	13.4%	1.8%	3.34	3.13	+2.5
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	113	467	94	17	12	69%	4.4	20.1%	3.6%	16.5%	2.6%	3.34	3.27	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	8	36	6	0	2	0%	2.1	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	5.6%	5.40	4.78	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	TB	1	1	6	25	4	1	1	100%	6.0	17.1%	3.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.01	4.01	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	68	287	50	13	8	100%	6.2	17.3%	4.7%	12.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	63	267	47	14	8	100%	6.3	17.4%	5.4%	12.0%	3.2%	4.32	4.43	+0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	25	106	18	5	3	100%	6.2	17.3%	4.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.27	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	35	148	26	8	5	100%	5.8	17.4%	5.4%	12.0%	3.3%	4.37	4.48	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	10	68	289	50	13	10	71%	4.9	17.3%	4.5%	12.8%	3.5%	4.43	4.10	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	29	200	847	147	38	29	71%	4.9	17.3%	4.5%	12.8%	3.5%	4.43	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		129	94	565	2407	431	131	107	73%	4.4	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	4.4%	4.38	4.71	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	33	200	853	153	46	38	73%	4.4	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	4.4%	4.38	4.71	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Van Belle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	17.1%	3.9%	2.7%	—	4.32	17.4%	12.4%	131	+0.31	—	—	—
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	67
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	66
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	65
Stephen Fife R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP	3.11	18.8%	8.1%	1.1%	.329	3.65	14.1%	8.3%	152	+0.54	3.11	179	64
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	64
Michael Brady R 2016 · 3.02 FIP	29	SP-	3.02	17.6%	3.7%	1.7%	.290	3.73	18.3%	15.0%	140	+0.71	3.02	333	63
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	63
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	62
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	61
Logan Verrett R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	29	SP-	3.90	20.1%	3.3%	3.8%	.283	4.48	16.9%	12.4%	240	+0.58	3.81	550	61
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	60
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	60
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	59
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	59
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	59
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	59
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	58
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	58
David Hale R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	29	SP	3.54	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	.342	3.74	16.2%	9.8%	157	+0.20	3.30	493	58
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.3%	4.6%	1.13	4.15
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75