Brian Van Belle
P
Durham Bulls
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.93
FIP3.93
K%18.0%
BB%4.5%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (25%)
CH (43%)
FB (33%)
SL-1.0 (23%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 18 | 18 | 79 | 330 | 82 | 13 | 12 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 14.6% | 5.8% | 4.10 | 5.24 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 18 | 18 | 79 | 330 | 82 | 13 | 12 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.8% | 3.9% | 20.9% | 3.6% | 4.10 | 3.49 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 137 | 594 | 135 | 20 | 33 | 86% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 3.8% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 5.31 | 5.79 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 137 | 594 | 135 | 20 | 33 | 86% | 4.9 | 22.7% | 3.4% | 19.4% | 5.6% | 5.31 | 4.69 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 141 | 605 | 134 | 50 | 27 | 93% | 5.2 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 4.46 | 5.31 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 141 | 605 | 134 | 50 | 27 | 93% | 5.2 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 13.9% | 4.5% | 4.46 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 30 | 9 | 94 | 411 | 87 | 30 | 10 | 30% | 3.1 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 3.98 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 30 | 9 | 94 | 411 | 87 | 30 | 10 | 30% | 3.1 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 4.42 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 113 | 467 | 94 | 17 | 12 | 69% | 4.4 | 18.0% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 3.34 | 2.90 | +3.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 113 | 467 | 94 | 17 | 12 | 69% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 3.6% | 16.5% | 2.6% | 3.34 | 3.27 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 72 | 305 | 55 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 4.5% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 5.3% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 63 | 267 | 49 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.2% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 5.3% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 10 | 68 | 289 | 52 | 14 | 9 | 71% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 3.96 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 29 | 200 | 847 | 153 | 41 | 26 | 71% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 94 | 565 | 2407 | 444 | 142 | 107 | 73% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 4.38 | 4.73 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 33 | 200 | 853 | 157 | 50 | 38 | 73% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 4.38 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brian Van Belle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 18.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.25 | 18.2% | 12.6% | 131 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 69 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 67 |
| Cole Johnson R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.48 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 101 | 66 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 65 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 62 |
| Michael Brady R 2026 · 2.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 2.80 | 17.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.76 | 18.3% | 15.0% | 140 | +0.96 | 2.80 | 333 | 62 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 62 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 62 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 61 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | .283 | 4.47 | 16.9% | 12.4% | 240 | +0.47 | 3.73 | 550 | 61 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 60 |
| Barry Enright R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 60 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 60 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 59 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 59 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.46 | 14.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .342 | 3.70 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 157 | +0.24 | 3.26 | 493 | 58 |
| Connor Overton R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.38 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 1.6% | .230 | 6.90 | 11.9% | 4.3% | 36 | +3.52 | 2.96 | 250 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 18.1% | 5.2% | 1.08 | 4.08 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Alex Wilson ('18) | 4 | 66 | 16.0% | 5.8% | 0.85 | 3.20 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Alex Claudio ('21) | 5 | 59 | 16.3% | 6.1% | 0.76 | 3.66 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |