Brian Van Belle

P Durham Bulls

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIEArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	27	25	141	4.46	4.75	22.1%	8.3%	—	K 18.5% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.30
2024	27	AAABOS	30	9	94	4.42	3.59	21.2%	7.3%	—	K 18.2% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.87
2025	28	MIX2 levels	26	18	113	3.34	3.27	20.1%	3.6%	3.0	K 17.6% · BB 3.5% · FIP 3.08
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBTB	1	1	7	3.86	3.86	17.9%	3.5%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTB	4	4	24	3.99	4.07	18.1%	4.4%	0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBTB	5	5	32	4.18	4.30	18.0%	5.1%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control70Command55

CompsTiago Da Silva (age 30) · Bruce Billings (age 29) · Casey Lawrence (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA3.86

FIP3.86

K%17.9%

BB%3.5%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL7070

CMD5555

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	18	18	79	330	82	13	12	100%	4.4	19.1%	4.5%	14.6%	5.1%	4.10	4.86	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	18	18	79	330	82	13	12	100%	4.4	24.8%	3.9%	20.9%	3.6%	4.10	3.49	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	137	594	135	20	33	86%	4.9	18.0%	3.8%	14.3%	6.8%	5.31	5.79	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	137	594	135	20	33	86%	4.9	22.7%	3.4%	19.4%	5.6%	5.31	4.69	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	605	134	50	27	93%	5.2	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	5.0%	4.46	5.30	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	141	605	134	50	27	93%	5.2	22.1%	8.3%	13.9%	4.5%	4.46	4.75	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	30	9	94	411	87	30	10	30%	3.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.6%	2.7%	4.42	3.87	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	30	9	94	411	87	30	10	30%	3.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.6%	2.7%	4.42	3.87	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	30	9	94	411	87	30	10	30%	3.1	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.4%	4.42	3.59	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	113	467	94	17	12	69%	4.4	17.6%	3.5%	14.0%	1.8%	3.34	3.08	+3.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	113	467	94	17	12	69%	4.4	17.6%	3.5%	14.0%	1.8%	3.34	3.08	+3.2
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	113	467	94	17	12	69%	4.4	20.1%	3.6%	16.5%	2.6%	3.34	3.27	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	8	36	6	0	2	0%	2.1	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	5.6%	5.40	4.78	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TB	1	1	7	30	5	1	1	100%	7.0	17.9%	3.5%	14.5%	2.7%	3.86	3.86	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	65	273	49	12	8	100%	5.9	18.1%	4.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.03	4.11	+1.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	58	244	44	13	8	100%	5.8	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	3.2%	4.23	4.35	+0.7
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	24	101	18	4	3	100%	6.0	18.1%	4.4%	13.7%	2.8%	3.99	4.07	+0.4
2029	32	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	32	135	24	7	4	100%	6.4	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	3.1%	4.18	4.30	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	9	64	271	48	11	9	69%	4.9	17.9%	4.2%	13.7%	3.3%	4.27	3.94	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	29	200	847	150	34	28	70%	4.8	17.9%	4.2%	13.7%	3.3%	4.27	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		129	94	565	2407	439	131	107	73%	4.4	18.2%	5.4%	12.8%	4.4%	4.38	4.69	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	33	200	853	155	46	38	73%	4.4	18.2%	5.4%	12.8%	4.4%	4.38	4.69	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 105 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.08 (−0.07)K% 20.4% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.860	17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.94%	—	×0.900	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷1.380	×1.100	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 94 IPFIP 3.57 → 3.87 (+0.30)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.17%	—	×0.860	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.30%	—	×0.900	6.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.69%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 81 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.44 (+0.65)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.85%	—	×0.810	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.100	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.048	×1.200	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 60 IPFIP 5.86 → 6.35 (+0.49)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.72%	—	×0.860	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×0.900	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	6.57%	÷1.008	×1.100	7.17%

Result: FIP 5.86 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 79 IPFIP 4.17 → 5.12 (+0.95)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.10%	—	×0.810	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.61%	—	×1.100	3.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.82%	÷1.004	×1.200	5.76%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 59 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.65 (+1.37)K% 21.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.99%	—	×0.770	16.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.05%	—	×1.150	3.51%
HR / BF /BF	6.49%	÷0.996	×1.250	8.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 79 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.86 (+1.36)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.85%	—	×0.770	19.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.94%	—	×1.150	4.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷0.891	×1.250	5.10%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Van Belle (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	17.9%	3.5%	2.7%	—	4.22	18.1%	13.3%	123	+0.36	—	—	—
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	68
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	67
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	67
Josh A. Smith R 2018 · 2.91 FIP	30	SP-	2.91	21.7%	5.2%	1.8%	.337	4.28	19.5%	12.2%	157	+1.37	2.91	598	67
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	66
Rolando Valdez R 2016 · 3.06 FIP	30	SP	3.06	14.9%	4.1%	1.3%	.291	4.38	12.3%	6.0%	156	+1.32	3.06	258	66
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	65
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	65
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	64
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	63
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	63
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	62
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	62
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	61
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	61
Logan Verrett R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	29	SP-	3.90	20.1%	3.3%	3.8%	.283	4.48	16.9%	12.4%	240	+0.58	3.81	550	60
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	59
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	18.0%	4.1%	1.16	4.09
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Dale Mohorcic ('86-'90, 3 WAR*)	1.8	73	14.9%*	6.3%*	1.09*	3.58*
Dan Otero ('19)	2.0	58	15.8%	3.4%	0.82	3.39
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*