Cole Mathis — OGILVIE

Cole Mathis3B South Bend Cubs

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION182 act + 121 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .299 / .397

PA121

HR4

K%30

BB%8

BABIP288

ISO175

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED41

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$27M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	194	176	29	11	1	4	13	68	3	3	2	165	234	307	541	142	236	35	7	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	194	157	37	9	1	5	32	45	3	3	2	236	375	401	776	166	294	23	16	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CHC	—	182	156	33	9	2	8	18	61	5	7	2	212	313	449	762	237	278	34	10	325	107	+1	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.8
YTD	23	A+	CHC	—	182	147	40	12	2	10	27	44	5	7	2	272	402	585	987	313	312	24	15	420	180	+16	+1	+0	+1	+5	2.3
ROS	23	A+	CHC	0%	121	108	24	5	1	4	10	36	2	3	1	222	299	397	696	175	284	30	8	307	93	-1	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.3
ROS	23	MLB	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						286	0	0	296	85	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	A+	CHC	—	183	157	33	9	2	8	18	61	5	7	2	210	311	446	757	236	275	33	10	324	106	+1	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.8
TOT	23	A+	CHC	—	303	264	57	14	3	12	28	97	7	10	3	216	307	427	735	212	282	32	9	318	101	+0	+1	-0	+1	+9	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CHC	38%	277	247	55	12	2	9	24	79	4	5	1	223	302	397	699	174	283	29	9	309	95	-2	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.7
2028	25	MLB	CHC	55%	345	307	68	15	2	11	30	96	5	5	2	221	301	391	692	169	284	28	9	311	96	-1	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.9
2029	26	MLB	CHC	64%	390	347	78	17	2	13	34	108	6	6	2	225	305	398	703	173	284	28	9	312	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+11	1.1
2030	27	MLB	CHC	66%	409	364	81	17	3	13	36	113	6	6	2	223	303	393	696	170	284	28	9	313	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+12	1.2
2031	28	MLB	CHC	67%	418	372	84	18	3	14	37	116	6	6	2	226	306	403	709	177	283	28	9	312	97	-2	+0	-1	+1	+12	1.1
2032	29	MLB	CHC	66%	416	370	81	17	2	13	37	116	6	6	2	219	300	381	681	162	282	28	9	310	95	-2	+0	-2	+1	+12	0.9
2033	30	MLB	CHC	65%	412	366	80	17	2	13	37	116	6	5	2	219	301	383	683	164	281	28	9	307	93	-3	+0	-3	+1	+12	0.7
2027	24	MLB	CHC	38%	105	93	21	5	1	3	9	30	2	2	1	226	308	398	706	172	284	29	9	299	87	-2	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.2
2028	25	MLB	CHC	55%	191	170	37	8	1	6	16	53	3	3	1	218	296	382	679	165	285	28	8	302	89	-2	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.4
2029	26	MLB	CHC	64%	248	221	50	11	2	8	21	69	4	4	1	226	305	403	708	176	286	28	8	303	90	-3	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.5
2030	27	MLB	CHC	66%	269	239	55	12	2	9	24	74	4	4	1	230	311	410	721	180	286	28	9	303	90	-3	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.6
2031	28	MLB	CHC	67%	279	248	56	12	2	9	25	77	4	4	1	226	307	399	706	173	285	28	9	302	90	-3	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.5
2032	29	MLB	CHC	66%	273	243	55	12	2	9	24	76	4	4	1	226	306	403	710	177	284	28	9	300	88	-4	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.4
2033	30	MLB	CHC	65%	268	238	53	11	2	9	24	76	4	4	1	223	305	399	704	176	282	28	9	298	86	-4	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1634	1453	327	71	12	53	143	455	25	25	7	225	305	400	705	175	288	28	9	301	89	-21	+2	-5	+6	+46	2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	130	28	5	21	57	181	10	10	3	225	305	400	705	175	288	28	9	301	89	-8	+1	-2	+2	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	2982	2657	580	129	18	94	258	848	44	45	16	218	298	386	685	168	281	28	9	306	92	-26	+3	-9	+11	+84	6.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	126	28	4	20	56	185	10	10	3	218	298	383	681	166	281	28	9	306	92	-6	+1	-2	+2	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	128	107	23	9	1	3	17	29	3	0	2	215	339	402	740	187	263	23	13	332	112	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2025	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	66	50	14	0	0	2	15	16	0	3	0	280	446	400	846	120	364	24	23	386	154	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	9	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	1	244	293	414	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	6	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	24	7	230	317	416	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	5	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
	/162	664	24	5	248	301	431	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,635	53	24	224	301	396	+6	-5	4.6	4.6
	/162	664	22	10	224	301	396	+2.4	-1.9	1.9	pk7: 5
#6Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cole Mathis (OGILVIE)	23	36→48	40→49	43→41	51	216/307/427	212	282	12	10	32%	9%	101	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→46	49→55	44→45	46	222/293/372	149	287	17	7	28%	8%	86	+0.8	216/294/380	164	285	19	5	30%	8%	89	+1.0	213/296/385	172	282	20	4	30%	9%	89	+0.8
●Chris Gimenez 2006 · A	23	40→50	46→50	44→45	44	203/285/331	129	259	13	5	26%	7%	74	-0.1	223/302/378	155	278	17	5	25%	7%	92	+1.2	233/315/394	161	290	19	4	25%	8%	100	+1.2
●Josh Fields 2006 · AA	23	43→53	47→55	42→50	40	215/280/346	131	300	15	7	32%	7%	74	-0.1	235/298/403	168	322	20	14	32%	8%	97	+1.5	234/301/411	178	318	22	15	32%	8%	97	+1.3
●Andrés Chaparro 2022 · A	23	43→49	48→60	43→40	47	217/299/360	143	289	15	5	29%	9%	85	+0.7	229/293/410	181	279	23	5	26%	7%	96	+1.5	231/292/422	191	271	25	4	25%	7%	96	+1.2
✕Tyler Saladino 2012 · A	23	42→47	46→45	44→55	42	209/274/345	136	286	12	7	30%	7%	71	-0.3	217/286/316	99	287	8	20	25%	8%	68	-0.5	256/300/368	112	305	11	25	19%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Christian Villanueva 2014 · AA	23	44→47	48→55	43→50	38	223/272/368	145	286	15	9	28%	4%	76	+0.1	208/254/348	140	253	16	4	25%	5%	63	-0.8	226/284/408	182	256	25	3	23%	6%	91	+0.9
✕Brock Peterson 2007 · A	23	47→50	49→55	41→40	42	236/294/383	148	303	17	4	28%	6%	89	+1.0	240/298/390	150	312	16	3	27%	6%	93	+1.3	240/299/391	150	313	16	1	27%	6%	90	+0.8
●Adam Rosales 2006 · A	23	47→49	50→55	45	40	236/287/388	152	305	18	6	28%	5%	88	+0.9	227/288/373	146	286	13	8	25%	6%	84	+0.6	237/303/394	157	285	14	8	21%	6%	95	+1.2
●Yonathan Perlaza 2022 · A	23	45→51	49→60	43→50	42	227/284/374	147	308	18	7	31%	7%	82	+0.5	229/302/413	184	302	20	11	30%	9%	101	+1.8	232/306/413	181	303	19	12	28%	9%	98	+1.5
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	216/280/366	151	284	17	7	30%	7%	79	+0.3	207/260/378	171	259	21	9	29%	6%	74	-0.1	243/295/401	158	287	19	12	22%	6%	91	+0.9
✕Kenny Holmberg 2007 · A	24	46→47	48→50	41→40	49	231/300/373	142	280	16	5	23%	8%	89	+1.0	219/301/321	102	275	10	4	23%	9%	77	+0.1	211/302/300	89	264	9	2	22%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Steve Selsky 2012 · A	23	45→52	49→50	48→45	45	226/292/376	149	293	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.8	237/295/357	120	319	11	9	28%	6%	82	+0.5	252/319/358	106	361	10	4	30%	7%	91	+0.6
✕C.J. Retherford 2009 · A	23	48→54	49→55	44→50	42	243/287/393	150	287	16	7	22%	5%	89	+0.9	222/261/338	116	270	10	4	21%	4%	63	-0.8	243/290/386	143	273	19	9	18%	4%	86	+0.6
●Kyle Lewis 2018 · A	23	44→52	49→55	48→40	39	220/277/358	138	311	18	7	34%	6%	76	+0.0	234/287/396	162	330	20	5	33%	7%	90	+1.0	255/325/436	182	353	25	6	33%	9%	113	+1.4
●Todd Frazier 2009 · A	23	46→51	48→60	46→50	44	231/291/377	146	296	16	8	27%	7%	86	+0.8	229/281/381	152	287	16	11	25%	6%	83	+0.6	243/310/454	211	268	30	14	22%	8%	112	+2.9
✕Jake Scheiner 2019 · A	23	51→53	46→60	46→40	45	252/306/387	135	310	13	7	23%	6%	95	+1.4	234/283/419	185	300	24	5	30%	5%	95	+1.4	223/284/426	203	280	28	3	31%	7%	95	+1.2
●Matt Vierling 2019 · A	22	48→56	46→50	43→50	38	239/282/372	133	308	14	9	27%	4%	81	+0.4	204/259/300	96	277	9	14	28%	6%	53	-1.5	257/317/400	143	310	14	10	21%	7%	100	+1.5
✕Travis Jones 2009 · A	23	41→47	48→45	46→50	48	212/289/356	144	267	16	11	27%	9%	81	+0.4	213/284/325	112	291	11	15	29%	8%	70	-0.3	207/279/304	98	286	9	19	29%	8%	60	-0.6