Cole Mathis

1B Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	A/INTL2 orgs	194	.236/.375/.401	5	3	84	—	.159/.252/.292
2026	23	A+/A/INTL2 orgs	275	.229/.365/.457	11	9	77	—	.186/.285/.388
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBNYM	1	.217/.296/.370	0	0	92	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	25	MLBNYM	55	.219/.297/.372	2	1	93	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	26	MLBNYM	113	.220/.298/.373	3	2	94	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.2M2032Arb-2$0.4M2033Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed88

Chase%86

ISO83

Z-Con%81

Whiff%78

wOBA75

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsDevin Mann (age 24) · Yusniel Díaz (age 24) · Kenny Holmberg (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .296 / .370

PA1

HR0

K%28

BB%9

BABIP275

ISO150

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	128	107	23	9	1	3	17	29	3	0	2	215	339	402	740	187	263	23	13	332	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	66	50	14	0	0	2	15	16	0	3	0	280	446	400	846	120	364	24	23	386	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	146	120	27	10	2	3	23	36	1	5	2	225	354	417	771	192	289	25	16	342	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	86	67	18	3	0	7	13	20	4	3	0	269	417	627	1.044	358	262	23	15	438	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	43	36	6	1	0	1	7	4	0	1	0	167	302	278	580	111	161	9	16	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	128	113	18	7	1	2	11	41	3	0	2	159	252	292	544	133	221	32	9	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	146	129	22	7	2	3	14	47	1	5	2	171	257	326	583	155	227	32	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	86	71	15	2	0	6	9	27	4	3	0	211	333	493	826	282	213	31	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	194	173	29	11	1	4	16	62	3	3	2	168	250	312	562	145	229	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	194	157	37	9	1	5	32	45	3	3	2	236	375	401	776	166	294	23	16	351	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	275	239	44	12	2	10	27	88	5	9	2	184	280	377	657	192	234	32	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	275	223	51	14	2	11	43	60	5	9	2	229	365	457	823	229	256	22	16	362	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	194	173	29	11	1	4	16	62	3	3	2	168	250	312	562	145	221	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	275	241	44	12	2	10	27	88	5	9	2	183	280	373	654	191	222	32	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	194	173	29	11	1	4	16	62	3	3	2	168	250	312	562	145	221	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	275	241	44	12	2	10	27	88	5	9	2	183	280	373	654	191	222	32	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	282	252	56	11	2	8	25	77	3	5	1	224	302	379	681	156	285	27	9	304	92	-3	+1	-0	-5	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	217	296	370	666	152	275	0	0	298	92	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	38%	146	130	29	6	1	4	13	39	2	2	1	225	303	382	685	157	285	27	9	306	93	-1	+0	-0	-3	+3	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	55%	203	181	41	8	1	6	18	54	2	3	1	226	304	383	687	157	285	27	9	306	94	-2	+0	-0	-4	+4	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	61%	240	214	47	9	1	7	21	64	3	3	1	226	304	381	685	156	285	27	9	306	93	-2	+0	-0	-4	+5	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	65%	267	239	54	11	1	8	23	71	3	3	1	225	302	378	680	153	284	27	9	304	92	-3	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	64%	276	247	55	11	1	8	24	74	3	3	1	223	300	373	673	149	283	27	9	301	90	-3	+0	-2	-5	+6	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	64%	281	252	56	11	1	8	24	76	3	3	2	220	296	365	661	145	280	27	9	296	87	-4	-0	-2	-5	+6	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	38%	55	49	11	2	0	2	5	15	1	1	0	219	297	372	670	153	276	27	9	300	93	-0	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	55%	113	101	22	4	1	3	10	30	1	2	0	220	298	373	671	154	276	27	9	300	94	-1	+0	-0	-2	+2	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	61%	147	131	28	5	1	4	13	39	2	2	1	219	298	372	670	152	276	27	9	300	93	-1	+0	-0	-3	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	65%	172	153	33	6	1	5	15	46	2	2	1	218	297	368	665	150	275	27	9	298	92	-2	+0	-1	-3	+4	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	64%	178	158	35	7	1	5	16	48	2	2	1	217	295	363	658	146	274	27	9	295	90	-2	+0	-1	-3	+4	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	64%	181	161	35	7	1	5	16	49	2	2	1	214	291	355	646	141	271	27	9	290	87	-3	+0	-2	-3	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	846	753	164	31	5	24	75	227	10	11	4	218	297	368	665	150	276	27	9	296	85	-9	+1	-3	-15	+18	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	126	24	4	18	58	174	8	8	3	218	298	366	664	149	276	27	9	296	85	-7	+0	-3	-12	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1994	1775	377	83	10	58	176	559	25	31	12	212	293	368	661	156	272	28	9	294	85	-16	+1	-5	-27	+33	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	123	27	3	19	57	182	8	10	4	212	292	368	660	155	272	28	9	294	85	-7	+0	-2	-12	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 146 PAwOBA .339 → .249 (−89)K% 24.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.66%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	32.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.75%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	9.43%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.53%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.950	×0.998	11.78%
Doubles /BIP	11.90%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.950	×0.998	8.80%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.950	×0.998	1.92%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	3.14%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .339 → .249; ISO .192 → .155; BABIP .289 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 86 PAwOBA .436 → .338 (−98)K% 23.3% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.26%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	31.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.12%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	10.33%
HBP% /PA	4.65%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	3.59%
Singles /BIP	17.02%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×0.990	14.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.38%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.990	4.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.89%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	11.80%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .436 → .338; ISO .358 → .282; BABIP .262 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 128 PAwOBA .327 → .244 (−82)K% 22.7% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.66%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	32.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.28%	÷1.106	×0.690	—	—	8.29%
HBP% /PA	2.34%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.83%
Singles /BIP	12.82%	÷0.990	×0.920	×0.950	—	11.32%
Doubles /BIP	11.54%	÷0.968	×0.830	×0.950	—	9.40%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.950	—	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.925	×0.800	—	—	3.33%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .327 → .244; ISO .187 → .147; BABIP .263 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#3Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.3	847	24	10	225	299	377	+3	-3	1.8	1.8
/162	664	19	8	+2.4	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 2
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cole Mathis (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	222/299/376	154	285	3	2	27%	9%	92	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→45	49→50	44→45	46	224/292/371	148	289	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.4	217/297/370	153	284	16	5	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/299/370	157	281	17	4	29%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Yusniel Díaz 2021 · AA	24	47→54	47→45	42→50	47	232/295/371	139	295	14	7	25%	8%	88	+0.4	203/264/311	108	285	11	9	31%	7%	63	-1.4	203/270/314	111	271	13	9	29%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Kenny Holmberg 2007 · A	24	45→46	48→50	41→40	48	229/296/368	140	276	15	5	23%	8%	88	+0.4	216/297/317	101	271	10	4	23%	9%	77	-0.3	207/297/294	87	259	9	2	22%	10%	71	-0.5
✕Haydn McGeary 2024 · AA	24	48	47→50	46→45	48	234/313/369	135	313	15	7	28%	9%	95	+0.9	204/272/316	112	311	13	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	171/234/291	120	258	16	8	39%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Chris Gimenez 2007 · A	24	41→51	46→50	40→45	43	205/285/337	132	258	13	5	25%	6%	78	-0.3	229/307/382	153	288	18	4	26%	8%	96	+1.0	228/310/383	155	285	19	3	26%	9%	95	+0.6
✕Matthew Brown 2007 · AA	24	46→49	47→55	42→45	42	230/283/374	145	292	14	6	26%	6%	84	+0.2	228/284/387	159	291	17	6	27%	6%	88	+0.4	217/278/379	161	276	18	5	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	51→50	38→40	46	201/294/355	155	278	19	2	33%	10%	86	+0.3	220/281/359	139	288	16	3	28%	7%	80	-0.1	222/277/356	134	285	15	2	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Jared Goedert 2009 · A	24	47→51	47→55	43→40	48	235/296/366	132	275	15	3	21%	8%	87	+0.4	226/285/370	144	267	16	3	21%	7%	84	+0.2	238/293/405	167	284	21	1	24%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Luis Vázquez 2024 · AAA	24	46→47	46→45	42→50	42	227/286/351	124	297	14	10	28%	6%	80	-0.1	228/285/350	122	302	13	11	28%	6%	80	-0.2	221/274/331	110	296	12	13	28%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Jabari Henry 2015 · A	24	42→41	52→55	41→45	49	217/297/388	171	275	20	6	28%	9%	93	+0.8	188/261/333	145	260	17	6	33%	8%	68	-1.0	153/227/285	132	210	17	5	35%	8%	41	-1.8
✕Will Craig 2019 · AA	24	44→48	46→55	43→40	43	218/289/352	134	288	14	5	28%	7%	82	+0.0	220/281/373	153	289	19	4	30%	6%	84	+0.1	214/274/369	155	278	21	1	30%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Brett Harris 2023 · AA	25	47→52	50→45	47→50	47	242/307/397	155	287	19	11	22%	7%	99	+1.2	240/317/364	124	289	13	10	21%	8%	95	+1.0	237/320/349	113	286	11	10	20%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Carter Kieboom 2023 · MLB	25	45→55	45→50	43→45	52	221/315/337	116	275	13	5	24%	10%	89	+0.5	227/296/342	115	294	13	7	26%	8%	82	-0.0	232/294/332	100	301	11	8	25%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Kyle Parker 2014 · AA	24	48→51	52→55	42→45	44	245/303/407	163	304	20	4	26%	7%	99	+1.3	228/272/352	124	306	13	6	29%	5%	74	-0.5	217/260/330	112	297	12	5	30%	5%	63	-1.0
✕J.R. Towles 2009 · MLB	25	46→53	47→50	44→50	46	233/307/373	140	269	15	10	20%	6%	94	+0.9	218/299/349	131	257	13	8	20%	7%	86	+0.3	201/284/313	112	235	10	6	18%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Alejandro Segovia 2014 · A	24	44→45	50	45→30	48	228/303/384	156	265	18	3	22%	7%	95	+0.9	216/291/347	131	268	14	5	24%	8%	81	-0.1	190/271/310	120	232	14	3	24%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	273	20	4	27%	8%	95	+0.9	222/285/357	135	279	14	3	25%	8%	81	-0.1	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
✕Mike Wilson 2007 · AA	24	44→53	50→55	43→50	42	221/288/378	156	303	18	6	32%	7%	87	+0.4	208/281/375	167	294	20	8	35%	7%	84	+0.2	225/299/392	167	287	21	9	28%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Joshua Fuentes 2017 · A	24	46→55	45→50	41→45	39	230/279/356	126	284	12	5	24%	4%	78	-0.3	243/279/383	140	313	12	5	26%	4%	84	+0.2	238/270/380	141	313	13	4	28%	3%	77	-0.3

Cole Mathis

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps