Will Koger — OGILVIE

Will Koger P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%22.0%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.13	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.13	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	41	0	51	238	60	40	7	0%	1.2	19.0%	19.5%	-0.5%	3.7%	5.65	6.01	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	41	0	51	238	60	40	7	0%	1.2	19.0%	19.5%	-0.5%	3.7%	5.65	6.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SD	22	0	25	121	34	16	2	0%	1.2	28.1%	13.2%	14.9%	1.7%	4.97	3.31	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SD	19	0	26	117	26	24	5	0%	1.4	22.2%	20.5%	1.7%	4.3%	6.31	6.17	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	51	216	49	27	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	52	218	51	25	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	21	0	22	93	21	11	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	32	0	34	144	33	16	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	56	238	55	28	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	99	25	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		43	0	54	251	48	47	9	0%	1.3	19.2%	18.9%	0.3%	3.5%	5.63	5.81	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	0	200	924	177	175	33	0%	1.3	19.2%	18.9%	0.3%	3.5%	5.63	5.81	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Koger (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	22.0%	13.9%	3.0%	—	4.68	22.9%	11.1%	103	-0.36	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	93
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	91
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	91
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	90
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	90
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	89
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	89
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	87
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	87
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	87
Gabriel Ponce R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	23	SU	4.45	20.5%	14.5%	2.3%	.238	4.61	23.9%	9.0%	61	+0.16	4.45	161	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	22.7%	12.3%	1.16	4.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64