Jonathan Santucci

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #199Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP51ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	23	118	3.06	2.79	28.7%	8.5%	—	K 22.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.62
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	125	4.03	3.12	30.8%	12.5%	—	K 25.3% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	26	26	145	4.36	4.36	25.3%	12.3%	0.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBNYM	11	11	64	4.28	4.24	25.4%	11.3%	0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBNYM	16	16	98	4.24	4.22	25.3%	11.0%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$6M2032Arb-3$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control49Command43FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 70%

CompsDamon Jones (age 24) · Scott Moss (age 24) · Parker Messick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%25.3%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.06	3.62	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.06	3.62	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	1.9%	3.06	2.79	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	125	530	163	66	10	100%	4.6	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	2.2%	4.03	3.78	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	125	530	163	66	10	100%	4.6	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	2.2%	4.03	3.78	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	125	530	163	66	10	100%	4.6	30.8%	12.5%	18.3%	1.9%	4.03	3.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	26	26	145	612	155	75	16	100%	5.6	25.3%	12.3%	13.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	147	620	157	70	17	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.24	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	147	620	157	68	17	100%	6.1	25.3%	11.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	145	611	154	66	17	100%	6.0	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	140	592	148	65	17	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.9%	14.0%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	134	566	140	63	17	100%	6.1	24.7%	11.2%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	126	532	130	61	17	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	118	496	119	59	17	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	109	459	108	56	17	100%	6.0	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.7%	4.94	5.08	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	64	270	69	30	7	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.24	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	98	414	105	45	11	100%	6.1	25.3%	11.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	112	473	119	51	13	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	118	498	124	55	14	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.9%	14.0%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	117	494	122	55	15	100%	5.8	24.7%	11.2%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	113	477	116	55	15	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	108	456	109	54	16	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	101	426	100	52	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.7%	4.93	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	139	832	3513	866	398	108	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.14	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	208	96	26	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		52	50	243	1011	243	115	22	96%	4.7	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	2.2%	3.56	3.70	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	833	200	94	18	96%	4.7	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	2.2%	3.56	3.70	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Santucci (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	25.3%	12.3%	2.7%	—	4.24	25.3%	14.3%	438	-0.12	—	—	—
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	85
Scott Moss L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	23.7%	13.9%	2.0%	.291	4.14	26.3%	10.1%	20	+0.20	3.83	457	83
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	81
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	80
Sean Newcomb L 2017 · 3.61 FIP	24	SP	3.61	24.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.310	4.03	22.3%	11.8%	267	+0.42	2.76	1,030	80
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	79
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	78
Logan Allen L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	22.7%	9.0%	2.7%	.312	4.72	19.5%	10.7%	422	+0.89	3.67	812	77
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	77
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	77
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	77
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	77
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.48	22.6%	16.0%	208	+0.10	2.38	494	77
Ken Waldichuk L 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	27.7%	8.9%	2.9%	.292	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	192	+1.70	3.51	432	76
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	76
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	76
Keegan Akin L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP	4.13	22.9%	12.7%	2.5%	.329	3.98	22.3%	14.5%	202	-0.15	2.62	743	76
Roenis Elías L 2014 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	20.6%	8.8%	2.4%	.285	4.39	17.8%	8.8%	336	+0.62	3.15	728	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	134	24.8%	11.4%	1.15	4.43
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34