Chase Petty

P Louisville Bats

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	28	28	137	4.20	3.54	22.4%	10.2%	—	K 18.4% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.22
2025	22	MIX2 levels	29	28	119	7.05	5.12	19.5%	11.8%	0.4	K 16.9% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.14
2026	23	MIX2 levels	38	13	90	5.70	5.06	17.9%	8.2%	-0.5	K 15.9% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.13
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	6	6	33	4.94	5.06	18.4%	8.8%	0.1
2028PROJ84% MLB	25	MLBCIN	8	8	47	4.85	4.85	19.9%	8.6%	0.3
2029PROJ89% MLB	26	MLBCIN	9	9	55	4.77	4.74	20.8%	8.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo84

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsAndrew Quezada (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.94

FIP5.06

K%18.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p1010.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	1	5	21	6	1	0	50%	2.5	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	5.40	1.29	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	1	5	21	6	1	0	50%	2.5	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	5.40	1.30	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	98	405	96	31	7	80%	3.9	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	2.4%	3.48	4.05	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	98	405	96	31	7	80%	3.9	23.7%	7.7%	16.0%	1.7%	3.48	3.02	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	68	274	66	15	0	100%	3.8	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	0.0%	1.72	2.31	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	68	274	66	15	0	100%	3.8	24.1%	5.5%	18.6%	0.0%	1.72	1.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	100%	4.9	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.2%	4.20	4.22	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	100%	4.9	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.2%	4.20	4.22	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	100%	4.9	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	1.9%	4.20	3.54	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	97%	4.1	16.9%	10.0%	6.8%	4.0%	7.05	5.14	+0.4
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	97%	4.1	16.9%	10.0%	6.8%	4.0%	7.05	5.14	+0.4
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	97%	4.1	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	3.6%	7.05	5.12	+0.4
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	13	90	403	72	33	17	34%	2.4	15.9%	7.6%	8.3%	4.4%	5.70	5.13	-0.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	13	90	403	72	33	17	34%	2.4	15.9%	7.6%	8.3%	4.4%	5.70	5.13	-0.6
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	13	90	403	72	33	17	34%	2.4	17.9%	8.2%	9.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.06	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	5	38	179	22	17	9	26%	2.0	12.3%	9.5%	2.8%	5.0%	7.17	6.39	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	6	6	33	139	26	12	5	100%	5.5	18.4%	8.8%	9.6%	3.7%	4.94	5.06	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	56	235	47	20	8	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.6%	11.4%	3.6%	4.85	4.85	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	260	54	22	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.5%	4.77	4.74	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	59	251	52	21	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.75	4.76	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	56	236	49	20	9	100%	6.2	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	3.7%	4.79	4.83	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	195	39	17	7	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.8%	4.91	4.99	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	35	148	29	14	6	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.2%	10.3%	4.0%	5.08	5.20	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	47	198	40	17	7	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.6%	11.4%	3.6%	4.85	4.85	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	55	232	48	20	8	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.5%	4.77	4.74	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	54	228	48	19	8	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.75	4.76	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	52	220	46	19	8	100%	5.8	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	3.7%	4.79	4.83	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	37	16	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.8%	4.91	4.99	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	33	139	27	13	6	100%	5.5	19.4%	9.2%	10.3%	4.0%	5.08	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	52	321	1376	266	121	53	79%	4.9	19.3%	8.8%	10.6%	3.8%	5.11	4.69	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	33	200	857	166	75	33	79%	4.8	19.3%	8.8%	10.6%	3.8%	5.11	4.69	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		140	108	517	2243	396	209	63	77%	3.7	17.7%	9.3%	8.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.32	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	868	153	81	24	77%	3.7	17.7%	9.3%	8.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.32	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 58 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.08 (+0.37)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.59%	—	×0.860	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 113 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.14 (+0.49)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.62%	—	×0.860	16.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.15%	—	×0.900	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷0.901	×1.100	3.99%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 127 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.22 (+0.61)K% 22.8% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.810	18.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.37%	—	×1.100	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.089	×1.200	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 10 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.68 (+0.11)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.860	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×0.900	6.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 60 IPFIP 1.71 → 2.31 (+0.60)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.10%	—	×0.770	19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.76%	—	×1.150	6.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.951	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.71 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 8 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.45 (+0.30)K% 16.1% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.13%	—	×0.810	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.100	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.017	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 68 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.44 (+1.17)K% 22.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.740	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.73%	—	×1.180	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.883	×1.300	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 31 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.23 (+0.75)K% 25.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.38%	—	×0.770	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×1.150	6.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.058	×1.250	1.82%

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Petty (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.78	20.5%	12.0%	177	-0.28	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	86
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	77
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	77
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	77
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	77
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	75
Jon Rauch R 2002 · 5.99 FIP	23	SP-	5.99	14.6%	9.2%	5.4%	.228	3.36	17.6%	10.5%	62	-2.63	2.87	595	75
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	75
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	75
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	75
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	74
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	74
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	74
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	74
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	73
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	73
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	49	19.3%	8.8%	1.48	5.07
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*