Chase Petty — OGILVIE

Chase Petty P Louisville Bats

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%17.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p1010.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

SI (5%)

CH-1.6 (12%)

SL-2.3 (42%)

FB-4.3 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	1	5	21	6	1	0	50%	2.5	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	5.40	1.29	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	1	5	21	6	1	0	50%	2.5	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	5.40	1.30	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	98	405	96	31	7	80%	3.9	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	2.4%	3.48	4.05	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	98	405	96	31	7	80%	3.9	23.7%	7.7%	16.0%	1.7%	3.48	3.02	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	68	274	66	15	0	100%	3.8	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	0.0%	1.72	2.31	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	68	274	66	15	0	100%	3.8	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	0.0%	1.72	2.31	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	68	274	66	15	0	100%	3.8	24.1%	5.5%	18.6%	0.0%	1.72	1.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	100%	4.9	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.2%	4.20	4.22	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	100%	4.9	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.2%	4.20	4.22	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	100%	4.9	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	1.9%	4.20	3.54	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	97%	4.1	16.3%	10.0%	6.2%	4.0%	7.05	5.19	-0.4
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	97%	4.1	16.3%	10.0%	6.2%	4.0%	7.05	5.19	-0.4
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	97%	4.1	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	3.6%	7.05	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	5	38	179	22	17	9	26%	2.0	12.3%	9.5%	2.8%	5.0%	7.17	6.39	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	36	13	88	388	71	32	14	36%	2.4	15.8%	7.7%	8.2%	3.7%	5.44	4.76	-0.2
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	36	13	88	388	71	32	14	36%	2.4	15.8%	7.7%	8.2%	3.7%	5.44	4.76	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	CIN	20	10	56	249	56	23	8	50%	2.8	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.2%	5.79	4.13	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	CIN	16	3	32	139	15	9	6	19%	2.0	10.8%	6.5%	4.3%	4.3%	4.83	5.38	-0.3
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	CIN	16	3	32	139	15	9	6	19%	2.0	10.8%	6.5%	4.3%	4.3%	4.83	5.38	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CIN	14	0	14	60	10	6	2	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.6%	7.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	CIN	13	0	14	59	10	6	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.6%	7.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	102	448	81	38	16	—	—	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	3.6%	5.34	4.75	+0.2
FULL	23	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	46	194	81	38	16	—	—	41.9%	19.5%	22.4%	8.2%	11.84	6.55	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	175	739	132	65	25	100%	5.6	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	3.4%	5.03	4.95	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	30	30	177	748	145	64	25	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.78	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	30	30	177	748	152	63	25	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.69	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	174	737	149	63	25	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	3.4%	4.72	4.71	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	174	737	149	64	26	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.5%	4.77	4.80	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	28	28	167	703	140	63	26	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.86	4.93	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	157	661	129	61	25	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	3.8%	5.01	5.11	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30	30	166	701	126	61	24	100%	5.5	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	3.4%	5.03	4.95	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	29	29	168	709	138	61	24	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.78	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	168	709	144	60	24	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.69	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	166	701	142	60	24	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	3.4%	4.72	4.71	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	166	701	141	61	25	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.5%	4.77	4.80	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	158	667	133	60	24	100%	6.1	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.86	4.93	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	25	25	149	629	123	58	24	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	3.8%	5.01	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	198	1193	5059	979	444	180	88%	5.3	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	3.5%	4.92	4.52	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	848	164	74	30	88%	5.3	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	3.5%	4.92	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		138	108	515	2228	391	208	59	78%	3.7	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	2.7%	4.62	4.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	866	152	81	23	78%	3.7	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	2.7%	4.62	4.26	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Petty (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	17.8%	10.3%	3.3%	—	4.81	19.2%	10.6%	529	-0.27	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	75
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	74
Mitchell Traver R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SP-	5.56	11.9%	9.7%	4.1%	.392	5.21	14.3%	3.7%	82	-0.35	5.21	104	73
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	73
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	72
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	72
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	72
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	72
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	72
Rafael Volquez R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	12.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.82	105	72
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	72
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	72
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.4%	13.8%	142	-2.14	2.93	176	71
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	71
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	71
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	71
Nicolas Debora R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	22	SP-	4.61	16.1%	8.7%	3.2%	.302	3.92	14.7%	5.6%	74	-0.69	2.45	191	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	168	19.4%	8.9%	1.34	4.88
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54