Chase Petty
P
Louisville Bats
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%18.0%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8597.0
Whiff%
p1520.3%
K%
p1010.7%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
SI (5%)
CH-1.6 (12%)
SL-2.3 (42%)
FB-4.3 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.29 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.30 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 98 | 405 | 96 | 31 | 7 | 80% | 3.9 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 3.48 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 98 | 405 | 96 | 31 | 7 | 80% | 3.9 | 23.7% | 7.7% | 16.0% | 1.7% | 3.48 | 3.02 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 68 | 274 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 2.31 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 68 | 274 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 24.1% | 5.5% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 1.82 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 137 | 580 | 130 | 59 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 4.20 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 137 | 580 | 130 | 59 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 3.54 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 119 | 560 | 109 | 66 | 20 | 97% | 4.1 | 17.3% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 7.05 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 119 | 560 | 109 | 66 | 20 | 97% | 4.1 | 19.5% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 7.05 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 23 | 12 | 69 | 302 | 57 | 26 | 12 | 52% | 3.0 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 5.35 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 75 | 315 | 57 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 75 | 317 | 57 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 144 | 617 | 114 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.02 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 99 | 419 | 114 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 27.1% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 7.42 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 31 | 31 | 175 | 739 | 137 | 71 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.03 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 148 | 69 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.84 | +1.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 30 | 166 | 701 | 130 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.03 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 29 | 168 | 709 | 141 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.84 | +1.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 75 | 440 | 1870 | 346 | 183 | 67 | 88% | 5.2 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 4.73 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 851 | 157 | 83 | 30 | 88% | 5.1 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 107 | 496 | 2142 | 386 | 214 | 61 | 86% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.40 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 43 | 200 | 864 | 156 | 86 | 24 | 86% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Petty (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.27 | 18.5% | 11.5% | 3.5% | — | 4.93 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 352 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 80 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .341 | 4.51 | 15.5% | 7.5% | 176 | -0.63 | 4.16 | 239 | 79 |
| Cole Wiper R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.38 | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .343 | 4.33 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 136 | -1.05 | 3.85 | 170 | 78 |
| Roki Sasaki R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .253 | 5.33 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 81 | +0.06 | 5.27 | 138 | 77 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .361 | 4.31 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 167 | +0.08 | 3.30 | 323 | 74 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 73 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 73 |
| Wellington Caceres R 2025 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 121 | 73 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 72 |
| Wuilberth Mendez R 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 137 | 72 |
| Danny Flatt R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 72 |
| Lorenzo Encarnacion R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 72 |
| Octavio Acosta R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.37 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 4.27 | 16.3% | 4.8% | 184 | -0.10 | 3.80 | 333 | 71 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 71 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 71 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.92 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.2% | .303 | 5.54 | 15.5% | -1.0% | 161 | -0.38 | 5.38 | 232 | 71 |
| Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.13 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .294 | 5.81 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.68 | 2.54 | 304 | 71 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 170 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 5.09 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |