Chase Petty — OGILVIE

Chase Petty P Louisville Bats

+0.1 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.2 · 2030

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

xFIP7.61

SIERA6.57

K%18.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%7.9%

IP113

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2030

K†4550

SI (5%)

CH-1.6 (12%)

SL-2.3 (42%)

FB-4.3 (46%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Twins	2	1	5	21	6	1	0	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
2022	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	25	20	98	405	96	31	7	17.8%	9.0%	2.5%	3.48	4.13	+1.3
2023	20	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	18	18	68	274	66	15	0	19.3%	6.6%	0.0%	1.72	2.31	+2.1
2024	21	AAA	Louisville Bats	28	28	137	580	130	59	11	18.4%	11.4%	2.2%	4.20	4.21	+1.7
2025	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	119	560	109	66	20	17.3%	11.7%	4.0%	7.05	5.32	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	4	4	16	72	22	5	3	26.9%	7.3%	4.6%	6.61	4.27	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB	CIN	45	—	45	190	36	21	6	18.9%	11.0%	3.3%	5.07	5.07	-0.1
2026 Total	23	MLB	CIN	—	—	61	262	58	26	9	22.1%	9.9%	3.5%	5.48	4.86	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	CIN	24	24	132	555	112	56	18	20.1%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.82	+0.7
2028	25	MLB	CIN	26	26	145	613	127	58	20	20.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.68	+1.0
2029	26	MLB	CIN	28	28	152	642	135	60	20	21.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.67	4.64	+1.1
2030	27	MLB	CIN	28	28	155	654	138	61	21	21.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.64	4.64	+1.2
2031	28	MLB	CIN	28	28	155	653	137	61	21	21.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.65	4.66	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	CIN	27	27	151	638	134	61	21	20.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.68	4.71	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	CIN	27	27	147	619	128	59	21	20.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.77	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	CIN	26	26	142	598	122	58	20	20.5%	9.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.84	+0.7
2035	32	MLB	CIN	25	25	136	574	116	57	20	20.2%	9.9%	3.5%	4.88	4.93	+0.6
2036	33	MLB	CIN	24	24	130	548	109	55	20	19.9%	10.0%	3.6%	4.97	5.03	+0.4
2037	34	MLB	CIN	22	22	123	521	102	53	19	19.6%	10.2%	3.7%	5.07	5.14	+0.2
2038	35	MLB	CIN	21	21	116	491	94	51	19	19.2%	10.5%	3.8%	5.18	5.26	+0.1
2039	36	MLB	CIN	20	20	109	459	86	49	18	18.7%	10.7%	3.9%	5.31	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			106	99	443	1912	354	193	49	18.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.53	4.22	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—			48	45	200	863	160	87	22	18.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.53	4.22	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Petty (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	18.9%	11.0%	3.3%	—	4.71	20.7%	11.0%	429	-0.36	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SU	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.15	338	90
Brandon White R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	16.7%	10.3%	3.4%	.264	4.10	14.7%	7.0%	174	-0.79	3.90	193	89
Todd Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	18.4%	10.3%	4.2%	.279	4.82	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.33	4.45	175	89
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	88
Hunter Stanley R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SU	3.87	18.9%	10.1%	2.0%	.270	5.33	17.4%	7.1%	148	+1.46	3.87	162	88
Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.77	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.50	3.27	155	88
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	87
Kasey Ford R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	23	SU	4.67	20.3%	14.5%	2.6%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.41	2.53	114	87
Luis Eusebio R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	22.2%	13.8%	2.6%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.41	3.54	152	86
Andrew Bash R 2025 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.22	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.35	3.63	428	86
Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	22.1%	11.9%	4.0%	.367	4.22	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.71	3.99	293	86
Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SU	4.84	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.24	18.1%	6.2%	130	-0.60	4.16	159	86
Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.59	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.80	2.36	173	86
Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.25	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.09	3.41	270	86
Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.09	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.33	4.07	196	86
Zack Hess R 2025 · 4.97 FIP	22	SU	4.97	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.38	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.41	4.97	101	86
Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	86
Vince Arobio R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.69	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.78	3.69	118	85
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.0M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$8M	+$5M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$10M	+$3M
2030	Arb-3	$10M	+1.2	$11M	+$0.6M
Totals		$21M		$32M	+$11M