Braxton Roxby
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 231 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.6%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%14.1%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 31 | 0 | 40 | 188 | 61 | 23 | 3 | 26.5% | 15.7% | 0.8% | 4.31 | 3.31 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 19 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 24.6% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 4.84 | 2.48 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 41 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 75 | 18 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 3.34 | 3.63 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 39 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 65 | 24 | 2 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 1.0% | 5.21 | 3.15 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 45 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 82 | 27 | 6 | 26.6% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.70 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 62 | 264 | 63 | 31 | 7 | 24.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 58 | 25 | 7 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 46 | 22 | 6 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 180 | 0 | 236 | 1045 | 256 | 124 | 16 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 4.27 | 3.39 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 884 | 217 | 105 | 14 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 4.27 | 3.39 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Roxby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.38 | 24.3% | 13.8% | 165 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 89 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 89 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 88 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 88 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 87 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 87 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 87 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 86 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 86 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 86 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 85 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 84 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 84 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 84 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 84 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 84 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.19 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.23 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 170 | +1.04 | 2.87 | 335 | 84 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 84 |
| Brad Brach R 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||