Braxton Roxby
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 231 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%24.6%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 40 | 188 | 61 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.5% | 15.7% | 10.8% | 0.9% | 4.31 | 3.33 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 40 | 188 | 61 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.4% | 12.2% | 20.2% | 1.6% | 4.31 | 2.75 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 19 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 4.84 | 2.48 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 19 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.0% | 10.0% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 4.84 | 1.58 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 75 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 75 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 23.0% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 39 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 65 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 0.9% | 5.21 | 3.11 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 39 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 65 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.8% | 10.6% | 18.1% | 0.9% | 5.21 | 2.44 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 82 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.6% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 3.84 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 82 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.4% | 10.3% | 21.1% | 2.3% | 3.63 | 3.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 26 | 0 | 37 | 161 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 77 | 330 | 76 | 38 | 9 | — | — | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 24.6% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.18 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 90 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 0 | 269 | 1184 | 282 | 140 | 22 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 4.22 | 3.58 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 210 | 104 | 16 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 4.22 | 3.58 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Roxby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.55 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 111 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 88 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 85 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 85 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 85 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 85 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 85 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 84 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 84 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 83 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 83 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 83 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 83 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.49 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.20 | 2.59 | 156 | 82 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 82 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 82 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 82 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 81 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.00 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 89 | +1.58 | 1.95 | 523 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 38 | 24.2% | 10.7% | 1.21 | 4.45 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |