Braxton Roxby — OGILVIE

Braxton Roxby P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 231 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%24.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	40	188	61	23	3	0%	1.3	26.5%	15.7%	10.8%	0.8%	4.31	3.31	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	40	188	61	23	3	0%	1.3	32.4%	12.2%	20.2%	1.6%	4.31	2.75	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	19	0	22	100	32	10	0	0%	1.2	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	0.0%	4.84	2.48	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	19	0	22	100	32	10	0	0%	1.2	32.0%	10.0%	22.0%	0.0%	4.84	1.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	59	248	75	18	6	0%	1.4	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	2.3%	3.34	3.60	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	59	248	75	18	6	0%	1.4	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	2.3%	3.34	3.60	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	59	248	75	18	6	0%	1.4	30.2%	7.3%	23.0%	2.4%	3.34	2.80	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	39	0	48	226	65	24	2	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	1.0%	5.21	3.15	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	39	0	48	226	65	24	2	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	1.0%	5.21	3.15	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	39	0	48	226	65	24	2	0%	1.2	28.8%	10.6%	18.1%	0.9%	5.21	2.44	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	261	82	27	6	0%	1.4	25.8%	10.0%	15.8%	2.7%	3.63	3.67	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	261	82	27	6	0%	1.4	25.8%	10.0%	15.8%	2.7%	3.63	3.67	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	62	261	82	27	6	0%	1.4	31.4%	10.3%	21.1%	2.3%	3.63	3.02	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	2	11	2	0	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.10	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	40	0	62	258	57	26	6	0%	1.6	18.5%	9.5%	9.0%	2.7%	4.19	4.21	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	40	0	62	258	57	26	6	0%	1.6	18.5%	9.5%	9.0%	2.7%	4.19	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	SF	38	0	60	247	55	26	6	0%	1.6	22.3%	10.5%	11.7%	2.4%	4.03	3.89	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SF	2	0	2	11	2	0	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.56	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SF	2	0	2	11	2	0	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.56	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SF	3	0	3	14	4	1	0	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SF	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	66	272	61	27	6	—	—	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	2.4%	4.19	4.21	+0.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	5	23	61	27	6	—	—	266.7%	121.0%	145.7%	28.2%	51.25	11.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	37	0	39	164	40	17	5	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	35	0	37	156	38	16	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	181	44	17	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.54	3.82	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	857	208	81	24	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.54	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		215	0	294	1281	298	140	23	0%	1.4	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	1.8%	4.13	3.53	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	0	200	871	203	95	16	0%	1.4	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	1.8%	4.13	3.53	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Roxby (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	24.7%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.36	24.4%	14.1%	39	+0.09	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	88
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	87
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	87
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	87
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	86
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	85
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	84
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	84
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	547	84
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	84
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	84
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	83
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Maikel Cleto R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	27	SU	3.44	27.9%	9.9%	2.6%	.301	3.61	23.6%	14.3%	70	+0.17	2.59	156	83
Jason Adam R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	24.2%	9.0%	2.2%	.237	2.64	33.1%	24.9%	88	-0.75	2.42	394	83
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 3.29 FIP	27	SU	3.29	22.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.276	6.18	27.2%	9.8%	50	+2.89	2.80	155	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	24.5%	10.3%	1.13	4.30
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68