Carlson Reed
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154145vR 136
ERA6.03
FIP6.03
K%18.1%
BB%20.3%
K-BB%-2.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.73 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.67 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 109 | 437 | 130 | 51 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 8.5% | 1.3% | 1.99 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 109 | 437 | 130 | 51 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 29.7% | 11.7% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 1.99 | 2.71 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 71 | 307 | 65 | 53 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 17.1% | 20.9% | -3.8% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 5.67 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 71 | 307 | 65 | 53 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 17.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 4.08 | 4.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 19 | 15 | 65 | 291 | 64 | 39 | 7 | 79% | 3.4 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.54 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 47 | 53 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.1% | 20.3% | -2.2% | 2.7% | 6.03 | 6.03 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.1% | 20.3% | -2.2% | 2.7% | 6.03 | 6.03 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 127 | 551 | 111 | 92 | 14 | — | — | 20.2% | 16.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 5.78 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.1% | 20.3% | -2.2% | 2.7% | 6.03 | 5.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 51 | 47 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.2% | 17.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 5.71 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 55 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 15.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.32 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.3% | 15.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 17.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 5.71 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 35 | 29 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 44 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.2% | 15.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.32 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 15.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 174 | 736 | 147 | 118 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 4.97 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 135 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 65 | 59 | 251 | 1069 | 205 | 172 | 22 | 91% | 3.9 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 4.66 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 47 | 200 | 851 | 163 | 137 | 18 | 91% | 3.9 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlson Reed (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.03 | 18.1% | 20.3% | 2.7% | — | 5.41 | 19.8% | 3.3% | 191 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 87 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 83 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 82 |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 80 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 6.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.75 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 4.9% | .296 | 4.76 | 18.4% | 0.8% | 147 | -1.99 | 4.13 | 217 | 80 |
| Michael YaSenka R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.84 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .288 | 5.74 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 58 | -0.10 | 5.74 | 154 | 79 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 78 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 78 |
| Lebarron Johnson Jr. R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 17.6% | 17.1% | 1.9% | .281 | 6.17 | 15.5% | 6.3% | 50 | +1.32 | 4.85 | 129 | 78 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 78 |
| Max Bain R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.37 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.8% | .291 | 6.65 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.28 | 5.16 | 174 | 78 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 77 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 77 |
| Connor Sadzeck R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.8% | 16.5% | 2.2% | .288 | 4.30 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 272 | -0.60 | 3.22 | 549 | 77 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 77 |
| Dane Acker R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 76 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 76 |
| J.P. France R 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 75 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 75 |
| Gunner Mayer R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.94 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 2.0% | .332 | 4.62 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 136 | -0.32 | 4.40 | 285 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 19.6% | 17.1% | 1.07 | 5.56 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |