Carlson Reed — OGILVIE

Carlson Reed P Greensboro Grasshoppers

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2029

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.4%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%7.9%

IP78

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	4	2	7	34	6	3	0	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
2024	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	22.2%	13.7%	1.4%	1.99	3.73	+1.9
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	17.1%	20.9%	2.6%	4.08	5.73	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	2	2	7	28	13	4	0	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	14	14	78	330	71	44	9	21.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.90	4.90	+0.2
2026 Total	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	85	358	84	48	9	23.3%	13.5%	2.5%	4.71	4.50	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	PIT	15	15	80	339	75	41	9	22.1%	12.0%	2.8%	4.72	4.65	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	PIT	17	17	93	394	88	43	11	22.5%	11.0%	2.8%	4.57	4.49	+0.8
2029	26	MLB	PIT	18	18	100	423	96	46	12	22.7%	10.8%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+1.0
2030	27	MLB	PIT	19	19	103	437	99	47	12	22.7%	10.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.46	+1.0
2031	28	MLB	PIT	19	19	104	438	99	47	12	22.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+1.0
2032	29	MLB	PIT	18	18	102	429	96	47	12	22.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.53	+0.9
2033	30	MLB	PIT	18	18	98	416	93	46	12	22.3%	11.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	+0.8
2034	31	MLB	PIT	17	17	95	402	89	45	12	22.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.67	+0.6
2035	32	MLB	PIT	17	17	91	385	84	43	12	21.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.70	4.75	+0.5
2036	33	MLB	PIT	16	16	87	368	79	42	12	21.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	+0.3
2037	34	MLB	PIT	15	15	83	350	74	41	11	21.1%	11.6%	3.3%	4.89	4.96	+0.2
2038	35	MLB	PIT	14	14	78	329	75	36	11	22.7%	11.0%	3.4%	4.84	4.81	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	PIT	13	13	73	308	69	35	11	22.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.90	4.95	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			48	46	193	806	169	131	14	20.9%	16.3%	1.7%	2.79	4.35	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			50	48	200	834	175	136	14	20.9%	16.3%	1.7%	2.79	4.35	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlson Reed (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	21.4%	13.5%	2.8%	—	4.52	22.4%	11.2%	274	-0.38	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.77	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.05	4.61	194	90
Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.56 FIP	24	SW	5.56	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.02	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.54	3.62	109	90
Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	90
Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	23	SW	4.89	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.88	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.74	161	89
Will McAffer R 2025 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	20.4%	18.1%	1.9%	.270	5.98	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.27	4.71	133	89
Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.40	17.1%	3.3%	48	-1.04	4.40	122	88
Kris Hall R 2027 · 4.64 FIP	24	SW	4.64	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.02	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.64	106	87
Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	23	SW	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.64	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.42	4.68	188	87
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SW	4.69	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.73	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.96	3.73	104	87
Carlos Contreras R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	87
Cole Hillier R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	16.9%	14.7%	2.1%	.297	3.79	18.1%	3.6%	58	-0.89	3.79	117	87
Alex McFarlane R 2025 · 4.91 FIP	22	SW	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	4.23	17.8%	3.5%	74	-0.68	4.23	125	86
Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	86
Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.09	4.42	155	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 5.14 FIP	23	SW	5.14	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.54	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.40	3.93	178	86
Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	86
Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.63	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.43	196	86
Jhondaniel Medina R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	23	SW	4.54	19.3%	13.9%	2.4%	.261	5.27	19.3%	4.4%	35	+0.73	4.38	167	86
Jonathan Teaney R 2026 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	16.4%	15.7%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	108	86
Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SW	4.94	18.8%	13.8%	3.1%	.301	3.44	18.6%	10.2%	76	-1.50	3.36	178	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+0.5	$3M	-$5M
Totals		$11M		$32M	+$21M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.