Carlson Reed — OGILVIE

Carlson Reed P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%18.1%

BB%20.7%

K-BB%-2.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	4	2	7	34	6	3	0	50%	1.8	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	2.57	2.73	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	4	2	7	34	6	3	0	50%	1.8	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	2.57	2.73	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	4	2	7	34	6	3	0	50%	1.8	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	2.57	2.67	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	100%	4.7	22.2%	13.7%	8.5%	1.4%	1.99	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	100%	4.7	22.2%	13.7%	8.5%	1.4%	1.99	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	100%	4.7	29.7%	11.7%	18.1%	1.1%	1.99	2.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	100%	3.7	17.1%	20.9%	-3.8%	2.6%	4.08	5.73	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	100%	3.7	17.1%	20.9%	-3.8%	2.6%	4.08	5.73	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	100%	3.7	21.2%	17.3%	3.9%	2.0%	4.08	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	35	15	88	392	87	50	10	43%	2.5	17.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.27	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	35	15	88	392	87	50	10	43%	2.5	17.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	PIT	35	15	88	392	87	50	10	43%	2.5	22.2%	12.8%	9.4%	2.6%	5.83	4.24	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	PIT	5	0	5	22	4	5	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	20.7%	-2.6%	2.8%	6.09	6.09	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	93	414	91	55	11	—	—	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	2.6%	5.84	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	100	423	81	76	12	100%	5.6	19.0%	17.9%	1.1%	2.8%	5.76	5.65	-0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	429	84	69	12	100%	6.0	19.6%	16.1%	3.5%	2.8%	5.49	5.38	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	429	86	67	12	100%	6.0	20.0%	15.7%	4.3%	2.8%	5.35	5.30	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	100	422	84	66	12	100%	5.9	20.0%	15.6%	4.4%	2.8%	5.32	5.31	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	410	81	64	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	15.7%	4.2%	2.9%	5.37	5.40	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	93	391	77	62	12	100%	6.2	19.6%	15.9%	3.7%	3.1%	5.47	5.53	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	87	367	71	60	12	100%	6.2	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	3.3%	5.61	5.71	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	43	182	35	33	5	100%	5.4	19.0%	17.9%	1.1%	2.8%	5.76	5.65	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	67	283	56	46	8	100%	6.1	19.6%	16.1%	3.5%	2.8%	5.49	5.38	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	67	53	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	15.7%	4.3%	2.8%	5.35	5.30	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	85	359	72	56	10	100%	6.1	20.0%	15.6%	4.4%	2.8%	5.32	5.31	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	86	363	72	57	11	100%	6.1	19.9%	15.7%	4.2%	2.9%	5.37	5.40	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	84	355	70	56	11	100%	6.0	19.6%	15.9%	3.7%	3.1%	5.47	5.53	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	65	55	11	100%	6.2	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	3.3%	5.61	5.71	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	527	2225	438	357	65	100%	5.9	19.7%	16.0%	3.7%	2.9%	5.46	5.08	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	135	25	100%	5.9	19.7%	16.0%	3.7%	2.9%	5.46	5.08	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		81	59	274	1170	223	185	27	73%	3.4	19.0%	15.8%	3.3%	2.3%	3.77	4.74	-4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	43	200	853	162	135	19	73%	3.4	19.0%	15.8%	3.3%	2.3%	3.77	4.74	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlson Reed (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	18.1%	20.7%	2.8%	—	5.44	19.5%	3.0%	303	-0.65	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	86
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	82
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	80
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	77
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	77
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	77
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Connor Sadzeck R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	17.8%	16.5%	2.2%	.288	4.40	20.1%	10.1%	272	-0.50	3.20	549	76
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	75
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	75
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	75
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	74
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	74
Alex Santos II R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	21	SW	6.17	16.8%	17.5%	4.1%	.335	4.57	24.8%	8.5%	106	-1.60	3.51	313	74
Michael Petersen R 2017 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP-	5.81	14.8%	17.5%	3.2%	.336	4.34	18.7%	5.9%	122	-1.47	3.20	399	74
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	73
Andrew Dalquist R 2023 · 6.27 FIP	22	SP-	6.27	15.7%	19.2%	3.8%	.312	5.09	19.5%	1.5%	124	-1.18	3.84	373	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	93	19.5%	16.5%	1.12	5.53
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32