Michael Petersen
P
Miami Marlins
Age 32
RHP
6'7" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9889vR 80
ERA3.94
FIP3.74
K%26.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%16.9%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.7
Whiff%
p7629.3%
K%
p8929.4%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
FB+2.2 (60%)
CH+0.6 (12%)
SL (27%)
CT (4%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 75% | 1.7 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.42 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 75% | 1.7 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.50 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 10 | 5 | 23 | 125 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 50% | 2.3 | 10.3% | 13.0% | -2.7% | 4.5% | 7.71 | 6.33 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 10 | 5 | 23 | 125 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 50% | 2.3 | 15.2% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 7.71 | 5.37 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 15 | 9 | 46 | 221 | 48 | 31 | 5 | 60% | 3.1 | 14.8% | 17.5% | -2.8% | 3.2% | 6.41 | 5.81 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 15 | 9 | 46 | 221 | 48 | 31 | 5 | 60% | 3.1 | 21.7% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 6.41 | 4.44 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 32 | 0 | 68 | 282 | 62 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 2.1 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 4.16 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 32 | 0 | 68 | 282 | 62 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 2.1 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.25 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 41 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 65 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 17.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 3.00 | 4.44 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 41 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 65 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.3% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 3.54 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.53 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 42 | 186 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 3.46 | 3.88 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 42 | 186 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 3.46 | 3.41 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 53 | 215 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 2.1% | 3.25 | 3.28 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 53 | 215 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.4% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 3.25 | 2.91 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 54 | 240 | 64 | 17 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 54 | 240 | 64 | 17 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 7.1% | 19.6% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 3.60 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 39 | 0 | 41 | 163 | 48 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 20.9% | 2.5% | 3.07 | 3.05 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 3.74 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 3.74 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 58 | 235 | 67 | 21 | 6 | — | — | 28.5% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 2.6% | 3.33 | 3.25 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 58 | 245 | 67 | 21 | 6 | — | — | 27.3% | 8.5% | 18.8% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 3.25 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 4.90 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 4.90 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 212 | 0 | 227 | 960 | 229 | 93 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.14 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 82 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 282 | 19 | 389 | 1690 | 349 | 199 | 45 | 7% | 1.4 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.30 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 10 | 200 | 870 | 179 | 102 | 23 | 7% | 1.4 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Petersen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.76 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 145 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 78 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 78 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.62 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .224 | 7.57 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +3.95 | 1.86 | 238 | 73 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 72 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 72 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 72 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 71 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 71 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |