Michael Petersen

P Miami Marlins

Age 33 RHP 6'7" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX2 levels	51	0	53	3.25	2.91	27.0%	8.4%	1.0	K 24.1% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.20
2025	31	MIX2 levels	48	1	54	4.31	3.60	26.7%	7.1%	0.6	K 23.9% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.03
2026	32	MLBMIA	65	0	66	3.02	2.86	30.1%	10.0%	1.3
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIA	52	0	55	4.08	4.15	27.5%	10.4%	0.3
2028PROJ85% MLB	34	MLBMIA	36	0	38	4.30	4.45	26.6%	10.9%	0.0
2029PROJ80% MLB	35	MLBMIA	23	0	24	4.59	4.79	25.6%	11.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs76

Form3.38 ERA (proj 4.08) · K 32.3% (proj 27.5%) · BB 11.8% (proj 10.4%) ▲ last 90d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Huascar Brazobán (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA4.08

FIP4.15

K%27.5%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%17.1%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.0

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p9030.1%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	4	3	7	25	5	2	0	75%	1.7	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.35	2.42	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	4	3	7	25	5	2	0	75%	1.7	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.35	2.50	—
2016	22	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	10	5	23	125	19	13	4	50%	2.3	10.3%	13.0%	-2.7%	4.5%	7.71	6.33	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	10	5	23	125	19	13	4	50%	2.3	15.2%	10.4%	4.8%	3.2%	7.71	5.37	—
2017	23	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	15	9	46	221	48	31	5	60%	3.1	14.8%	17.5%	-2.8%	3.2%	6.41	5.81	—
2017	23	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	15	9	46	221	48	31	5	60%	3.1	21.7%	14.0%	7.7%	2.3%	6.41	4.44	—
2018	24	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	32	0	68	282	62	23	5	0%	2.1	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.3%	3.46	4.19	—
2018	24	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	32	0	68	282	62	23	5	0%	2.1	22.0%	8.2%	13.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.25	—
2019	25	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	41	0	54	230	65	34	4	0%	1.3	21.8%	17.0%	4.8%	2.0%	3.00	4.52	—
2019	25	A+ RAW	Carolina Mudcats	41	0	54	230	65	34	4	0%	1.3	28.3%	14.8%	13.5%	1.7%	3.00	3.54	—
2022	28	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2022	28	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	42	186	49	24	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	1.7%	3.46	3.77	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	42	186	49	24	3	0%	1.0	26.3%	12.9%	13.4%	1.6%	3.46	3.41	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	53	215	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	2.0%	3.25	3.20	+0.8
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	53	215	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	2.0%	3.25	3.20	+0.8
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	53	215	58	18	4	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.4%	18.6%	1.9%	3.25	2.91	+1.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	54	240	64	17	8	2%	1.1	23.9%	6.6%	17.3%	3.9%	4.31	4.03	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	54	240	64	17	8	2%	1.1	23.9%	6.6%	17.3%	3.9%	4.31	4.03	+0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	54	240	64	17	8	2%	1.1	26.7%	7.1%	19.6%	3.3%	4.31	3.60	+0.6
2026	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	65	0	66	269	81	27	5	0%	1.0	30.1%	10.0%	20.1%	2.0%	3.02	2.90	+1.3
2026	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	65	0	66	269	81	27	5	0%	1.0	30.1%	10.0%	20.1%	2.0%	3.02	2.90	+1.3
2026	32	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	65	0	66	269	81	27	5	0%	1.0	30.1%	10.0%	20.1%	1.9%	3.02	2.86	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	0	103	438	112	42	11	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	2.5%	3.75	3.54	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIA	52	0	55	232	64	24	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	10.4%	17.1%	3.0%	4.08	4.15	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIA	43	0	45	189	50	21	6	0%	1.0	26.6%	10.9%	15.7%	3.3%	4.30	4.45	+0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIA	29	0	30	128	33	15	5	0%	1.0	25.6%	11.5%	14.1%	3.7%	4.59	4.79	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIA	36	0	38	160	43	18	5	0%	1.1	26.6%	10.9%	15.7%	3.3%	4.30	4.45	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIA	23	0	24	101	26	12	4	0%	1.0	25.6%	11.5%	14.1%	3.7%	4.59	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	0	166	702	181	71	20	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.00	3.79	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	847	218	86	24	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.00	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		308	19	413	1796	379	206	46	6%	1.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.5%	3.94	4.17	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	9	200	869	184	100	22	6%	1.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.5%	3.94	4.17	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 36 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.91 (+0.62)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.19%	—	×0.860	25.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.45%	—	×0.900	6.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷0.903	×1.100	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 33 IPFIP 1.38 → 1.81 (+0.43)K% 35.2% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.20%	—	×0.860	30.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.40%	—	×0.900	5.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.98%

Result: FIP 1.38 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 22 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.62 (+0.07)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.860	17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.062	×1.100	2.03%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 20 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.73 (+0.74)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.040	×1.200	1.37%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Carolina Mudcats · 54 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.52 (+0.98)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.770	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.78%	—	×1.150	17.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.082	×1.250	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 68 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.19 (+0.94)K% 22.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.99%	—	×0.740	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.180	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.019	×1.300	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKHelena Brewers · 46 IPFIP 4.28 → 5.81 (+1.53)K% 21.7% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.72%	—	×0.680	14.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.03%	—	×1.250	17.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKHelena Brewers · 23 IPFIP 4.89 → 6.33 (+1.44)K% 15.2% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.20%	—	×0.680	10.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.40%	—	×1.250	13.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.48%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 6.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Petersen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	27.5%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.59	26.2%	15.1%	75	+0.44	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	79
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	77
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	76
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	75
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	73
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	72
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	70
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	69
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	68
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	67
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	67
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	66
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	66
Brendan Donnelly R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	32.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.302	3.88	19.0%	11.8%	150	+0.83	2.23	385	66
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.23	19.4%	9.4%	126	-0.34	3.55	429	65
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	65
Marcos Mateo R 2015 · 3.12 FIP	31	SU	3.12	28.0%	8.0%	2.5%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	65
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	65
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	335	64
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	60	26.3%	10.8%	1.14	4.04
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*