Michael Petersen
P
Miami Marlins
+0.3
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'7" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.58
FIP4.28
xFIP4.40
SIERA3.67
K%23.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%15.0%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†6060
FB+2.2 (56%)
CH+0.6 (18%)
SL (16%)
CT (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.35 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 10 | 5 | 23 | 125 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 10.3% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 7.71 | 6.33 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | Helena Brewers | 15 | 9 | 46 | 221 | 48 | 31 | 5 | 14.8% | 17.5% | 3.2% | 6.41 | 5.81 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 32 | 0 | 68 | 282 | 62 | 23 | 5 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 3.46 | 4.18 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 41 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 65 | 34 | 4 | 21.8% | 17.0% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 41 | 0 | 42 | 186 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 1.7% | 3.46 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 51 | 0 | 53 | 215 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 3.25 | 3.18 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 48 | 1 | 54 | 240 | 64 | 17 | 8 | 24.3% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 4.31 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 48 | 202 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 23.9% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 250 | 19 | 356 | 1560 | 308 | 189 | 41 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.42 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 11 | 200 | 877 | 173 | 106 | 23 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Petersen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.72 | 22.6% | 12.2% | 131 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 80 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 79 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 77 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 173 | 76 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 76 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 75 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 75 |
| Bryan Morris R 2024 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 74 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 74 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 74 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 73 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.42 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .273 | 2.48 | 25.7% | 19.8% | 112 | -2.94 | 2.26 | 602 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.