Sabin Ceballos — OGILVIE

Sabin Ceballos3B Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 236 lbs AA HR -8%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION312 act + 208 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .324

PA208

HR5

K%25

BB%8

BABIP246

ISO124

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	50	43	11	0	0	1	6	20	1	2	0	256	360	326	686	70	455	40	12	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	50	40	12	0	0	1	9	14	1	2	0	300	440	375	815	75	440	28	18	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	2 teams	—	534	486	97	24	1	8	32	161	12	9	6	200	266	302	569	103	277	30	6	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	2 teams	—	534	464	124	30	1	10	54	109	12	9	6	267	358	401	759	134	327	20	10	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	468	414	85	20	0	5	39	102	8	5	5	205	286	290	576	85	258	22	8	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	468	403	92	21	0	7	50	82	8	5	5	228	325	333	658	104	268	18	11	300	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	SF	—	312	276	53	10	0	12	27	77	8	5	1	192	283	359	642	167	218	25	9	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
YTD	23	AA	SF	—	312	262	59	12	0	13	41	60	8	5	1	225	347	420	767	195	242	19	13	345	122	+8	+1	+0	+1	+9	1.9
ROS	23	AA	SF	2%	208	185	37	8	0	5	17	51	4	3	1	200	282	324	606	124	248	25	8	280	72	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.0
ROS	23	MLB	SF	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						243	25	0	260	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	SF	—	316	280	53	10	0	12	27	78	8	5	1	189	279	354	633	164	215	25	9	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
TOT	23	AA	SF	—	520	461	90	18	0	17	44	128	12	8	2	195	282	345	627	150	230	25	8	281	73	-16	+1	+0	+2	+15	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	SF	31%	482	430	91	19	1	13	40	115	9	6	2	212	292	351	643	140	255	24	8	288	79	-12	+0	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2028	25	MLB	SF	45%	510	453	97	20	1	14	43	121	9	7	3	214	295	355	650	141	258	24	8	293	83	-10	+0	+0	+2	+14	0.7
2029	26	MLB	SF	51%	525	466	101	21	1	15	45	124	9	7	3	217	298	363	661	146	259	24	9	296	85	-9	+0	+0	+2	+15	0.8
2030	27	MLB	SF	53%	530	470	102	21	1	15	46	125	9	8	3	217	299	362	661	145	260	24	9	297	85	-9	+0	+0	+2	+15	0.9
2031	28	MLB	SF	53%	528	468	101	21	1	15	46	126	9	7	3	216	298	361	659	145	259	24	9	296	85	-9	+0	-1	+2	+15	0.7
2027	24	MLB	SF	31%	149	133	28	6	0	4	12	36	3	2	1	211	291	346	636	135	250	24	8	270	65	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	SF	45%	227	202	42	9	0	6	19	54	4	3	1	208	289	342	630	134	253	24	8	275	69	-8	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	SF	51%	267	237	49	10	0	7	23	63	5	4	1	207	291	338	628	131	254	24	9	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.0
2030	27	MLB	SF	53%	278	247	52	11	0	8	24	66	5	4	1	211	293	352	646	142	255	24	9	279	71	-9	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.0
2031	28	MLB	SF	53%	282	250	53	11	0	8	25	67	5	4	1	212	296	352	648	140	254	24	9	278	71	-9	+0	-0	+1	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1207	1073	224	47	0	33	103	287	22	17	5	209	291	345	636	136	252	24	9	276	70	-41	+1	-0	+4	+34	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	121	25	0	18	55	155	12	9	3	209	291	346	637	137	252	24	8	276	70	-22	+1	-0	+2	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	3835	3415	722	154	6	91	314	945	70	54	26	211	291	340	631	129	263	25	8	282	74	-112	+0	-1	+14	+109	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	122	26	1	15	53	160	12	9	4	211	290	337	627	126	262	25	8	282	74	-19	+0	-0	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	35	32	9	0	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	281	343	375	718	94	400	31	9	326	108	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Braves	—	15	8	3	0	0	0	6	3	1	2	0	375	667	375	1.042		600	20	40	509	248	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2024	21	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	517	450	121	30	1	10	52	104	11	9	6	269	359	407	765	138	326	20	10	344	121	+12	-1	—	—	+15	2.7
2024	21	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	17	14	3	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	214	353	214	567		333	29	12	285	76	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2025	22	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	420	358	83	20	0	6	47	73	8	4	3	232	334	338	672	106	273	17	11	306	92	-4	-0	—	—	+12	0.8
2025	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	48	45	9	1	0	1	3	9	0	1	2	200	250	289	539	89	229	19	6	246	46	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#5Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,210	34	17	216	294	359	+4	+1	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	19	9	216	294	359	+2.4	+0.5	1.0	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sabin Ceballos (OGILVIE)	23	45	35	45	50	195/282/345	150	230	17	8	25%	8%	73	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ray Chang 2007 · AAA	23	43→53	42→40	45→40	43	212/271/315	103	278	9	5	27%	6%	62	-0.9	227/282/325	98	284	6	4	21%	5%	69	-0.4	252/310/344	92	296	6	1	16%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Colton Welker 2021 · AA	23	43→53	41→40	47→45	41	214/256/312	98	276	9	5	26%	5%	54	-1.4	210/282/313	103	278	10	6	26%	8%	66	-0.6	190/284/260	70	260	6	3	27%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	43→45	41→45	44→45	44	214/271/309	96	275	9	7	25%	6%	60	-1.0	223/277/326	103	287	9	7	24%	6%	67	-0.5	242/291/349	107	304	9	4	22%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	42→40	47→45	40	213/257/317	104	272	10	5	26%	5%	56	-1.3	225/280/319	94	262	9	8	18%	6%	66	-0.6	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Shane Justis 2006 · A	23	45→52	40	46→50	43	216/274/315	99	270	7	7	22%	5%	63	-0.8	241/305/347	106	285	10	8	18%	7%	84	+0.6	250/315/348	98	292	8	10	17%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Chase Pinder 2019 · AA	23	47	41→45	41→45	49	226/302/324	98	300	8	6	26%	9%	77	+0.1	194/273/283	89	279	9	4	31%	8%	56	-1.3	194/289/310	116	267	13	8	30%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Noe Becerra 2010 · AAA	23	44	39→30	43→40	48	213/275/293	80	267	7	7	23%	8%	57	-1.2	232/280/318	86	272	7	7	17%	6%	66	-0.6	274/319/333	59	310	3	0	12%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Ramon Soto 2010 · AAA	22	48	39→30	46→45	43	231/277/308	77	286	7	9	22%	5%	62	-0.9	240/283/305	65	292	4	8	18%	5%	63	-0.9	273/316/327	54	334	2	7	18%	5%	78	+0.1
✕C.J. Hinojosa 2017 · AA	23	47→57	42→45	42→45	46	231/283/333	102	285	9	4	22%	7%	70	-0.3	232/278/323	91	273	8	6	17%	6%	66	-0.6	253/291/368	115	298	11	5	18%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Ross Wilson 2013 · AA	24	45→47	40	49→45	46	214/287/312	98	278	7	7	24%	7%	68	-0.5	200/266/293	93	267	8	6	27%	6%	54	-1.4	185/250/269	84	247	7	4	27%	6%	41	-1.5
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	44	40	46→40	46	211/286/303	92	280	7	5	26%	8%	66	-0.6	199/259/270	71	270	4	4	26%	6%	44	-2.1	244/302/337	93	298	7	3	19%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2015 · AA	24	48→52	41→45	45	49	232/297/334	102	288	9	5	22%	8%	77	+0.1	230/288/320	90	304	7	7	25%	7%	69	-0.4	229/278/345	116	287	13	6	24%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Tim Kennelly 2010 · AA	23	50→52	40	47→40	47	236/299/342	107	300	6	7	22%	7%	80	+0.4	229/279/318	89	288	6	6	21%	6%	66	-0.6	225/268/301	76	282	5	4	21%	5%	53	-0.8
✕Dante Bichette Jr. 2017 · AA	24	45→49	42→45	44→40	44	218/273/321	103	284	9	4	26%	6%	64	-0.8	233/288/330	97	295	8	5	22%	7%	72	-0.2	244/295/326	81	301	6	2	20%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Alsander Womack 2023 · A	24	48→43	43→40	44→45	47	238/297/340	103	293	12	7	23%	7%	79	+0.3	217/281/301	84	281	9	9	24%	7%	63	-0.9	205/273/275	71	264	8	8	24%	7%	50	-0.9
✕Owen Miller 2021 · AA	24	46→55	40→45	43→50	43	224/271/316	92	277	8	6	22%	5%	61	-1.0	241/293/361	120	305	11	7	24%	6%	82	+0.5	253/307/364	111	311	9	11	21%	6%	86	+0.5
✕Aaron McKeithan 2023 · A	23	45	41→40	45→40	44	215/291/309	94	292	8	4	28%	7%	69	-0.4	213/291/294	81	270	8	4	23%	7%	66	-0.6	205/291/269	63	262	7	0	23%	8%	57	-0.3
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	39→46	44→45	48→45	45	198/261/314	116	258	13	6	28%	8%	57	-1.2	214/281/337	123	274	14	7	26%	8%	72	-0.2	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Dixon Machado 2015 · AA	23	48→55	39→45	47→55	50	228/290/321	93	273	5	10	18%	8%	71	-0.3	239/289/314	75	287	5	12	18%	6%	68	-0.5	228/310/338	110	275	11	4	20%	9%	81	+0.3