Sabin Ceballos

3B Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 236 lbs AA HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1164ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+/INTL2 orgs534.267/.358/.40110969—.219/.292/.329
202522AA/INTL2 orgs468.228/.325/.3337564—.214/.295/.295
202623AASF504.227/.358/.398181176—.199/.300/.336
2027PROJMLE24MLBSF4.212/.298/.32400820.0
2028PROJ39% MLB25MLBSF101.214/.300/.32921840.1
2029PROJ56% MLB26MLBSF170.215/.301/.33232850.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
K%84
BB%83
Whiff%74
ISO63
wRC+62
Z-Con%61
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%
CompsOrlando Mercado (age 24) · Abrahan Gutierrez (age 24) · Alika Williams (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†82
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .298 / .324
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%9
BABIP258
ISO108
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.20.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-1$0.2M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202320 AAugusta GreenJackets — 3532 9001 3110 00 281343375718 94400 319 326 54 — — — — — —
202320 ROKFCL Braves — 158 3000 631 20 3756673751.042 600 2040 509 151 — — — — — —
202421 A+Eugene Emeralds — 517450 12130110 5210411 96 269359407765 138326 2010 344 69 — — — — — —
202421 INTLIndios de Mayaguez — 1714 3000 251 00 214353214567 333 2912 285 79 — — — — — —
202522 AARichmond Flying Squirrels — 420358 832006 47738 43 232334338672 106273 1711 306 65 — — — — — —
202522 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 4845 9101 390 12 200250289539 89229 196 246 52 — — — — — —
202623 AARichmond Flying Squirrels — 504415 9417018 729013 112 227358398756 171245 1814 342 76 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202320 A MLEAugusta GreenJackets — 3533 8001 2150 00 242286333619 91385 436 248 54 — — — — — —
202320 ROK MLEFCL Braves — 1510 3000 441 20 300533300833 496 2727 391 151 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEEugene Emeralds — 517465 1022518 3714511 96 219292329621 110288 287 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 420370 791804 35878 43 214295295590 81261 218 265 65 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 504437 8715015 5011013 112 199300336636 137223 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
202320 A MLE2 teams — 5043 11001 6191 20 256360326686 70435 3812 291 83 — — — — — —
202320 A RAW2 teams — 5040 12001 9141 20 300440375815 75440 2818 381 83 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 534480 1052618 3815012 96 219292327620 108298 287 270 69 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAW2 teams — 534464 12430110 5410912 96 267358401759 134327 2010 342 69 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 468414 892005 39978 55 215295300595 85267 218 265 65 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAW2 teams — 468403 922107 50828 55 228325333658 104268 1811 300 65 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 504437 8715015 5011013 112 199300336636 137229 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAWRichmond Flying Squirrels — 504415 9417018 729013 112 227358398756 171245 1814 342 76 — — — — — —
202320 A MLE2 teams — 5043 11001 6191 20 256360326686 70418 3812 291 83 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 534479 1052618 3815012 96 219292328620 109288 287 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 468418 892005 39978 55 213295297592 84261 218 265 65 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 504436 8715015 5011013 112 200300337637 138223 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 534479 1052618 3815012 96 219292328620 109288 287 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 468418 892005 39978 55 213295297592 84261 218 265 65 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 504436 8715015 5011013 112 200300337637 138223 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLESF 2% 380336 721508 34847 52 215301332634 117261 229 289 82 -8 +0 +1 +1 +8 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXSF 2% 44 1000 010 00 212298324622 112258 250 284 82 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLESF 39% 260230 501006 23575 31 218303339642 121263 229 292 84 -5 +0 +1 +1 +6 0.3
202926 MLB MLESF 56% 305268 591207 28676 41 219304342646 123264 229 293 85 -6 +0 +1 +1 +7 0.4
203027 MLB MLESF 62% 321283 611207 29716 41 219304342646 123265 229 293 85 -6 +0 +1 +1 +7 0.4
203128 MLB MLESF 65% 328289 631307 30746 31 218303341644 122265 239 292 84 -6 +0 +1 +1 +7 0.3
203229 MLB MLESF 64% 321284 611207 29735 21 217301338638 120265 239 290 82 -7 +0 -0 +1 +7 0.1
203330 MLB MLESF 64% 314278 601207 28725 21 214297329626 115262 239 285 79 -8 +0 -1 +1 +7 -0.1
202825 MLB CTXSF 39% 10189 19402 9222 10 214300329629 116259 229 287 84 -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 0.1
202926 MLB CTXSF 56% 170150 32703 15383 21 215301332633 117260 229 288 85 -3 +0 +1 +1 +4 0.2
203027 MLB CTXSF 62% 198175 38804 18443 21 215301333633 118261 229 288 85 -4 +0 +1 +1 +4 0.2
203128 MLB CTXSF 65% 212187 39804 19484 21 215299331631 117261 239 287 84 -4 +0 +0 +1 +5 0.2
203229 MLB CTXSF 64% 207184 39804 18473 21 213297328625 115261 239 285 82 -4 +0 -0 +1 +4 0.1
203330 MLB CTXSF 64% 202179 38804 18473 11 210293320614 110259 239 280 79 -5 -0 -1 +1 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 1090964 20543021 9724618 105 213297323619 110262 239 286 78 -22 +0 +2 +4 +24 0.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 12326013 5814711 63 214299327626 113263 239 286 78 -13 +0 +1 +2 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 36153191 685140174 31983771 4820 215300329629 114265 239 283 78 -42 +1 +4 +7 +45 1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 12325013 5715013 94 214300326625 111265 239 283 78 -13 +0 +1 +2 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 504 PAwOBA .335 → .280 (−55)K% 17.9% → 21.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.86%÷1.000×1.220——21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.09%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0129.98%
HBP% /PA2.58%—×0.850—×1.0122.22%
Singles /BIP18.15%÷1.000×0.970×0.962×1.01217.13%
Doubles /BIP5.23%÷1.000×0.860×0.962×1.0124.38%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×0.962×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP5.54%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0124.37%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .335 → .280; ISO .171 → .140; BABIP .245 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 420 PAwOBA .300 → .265 (−35)K% 17.4% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.38%÷1.018×1.220——20.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.19%÷0.962×0.700—×1.0278.36%
HBP% /PA1.90%—×0.850—×1.0271.66%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.004×0.970×0.996×1.02719.78%
Doubles /BIP7.02%÷0.992×0.860×0.996×1.0276.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950×0.996×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.11%÷1.183×0.780—×1.0271.43%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .300 → .265; ISO .106 → .085; BABIP .273 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 517 PAwOBA .338 → .270 (−67)K% 20.1% → 28.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.12%÷0.968×1.350——28.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.06%÷1.024×0.710—×1.0127.06%
HBP% /PA2.13%—×0.810—×1.0121.74%
Singles /BIP23.12%÷1.016×0.910×0.988×1.01220.71%
Doubles /BIP8.67%÷0.950×0.830×0.988×1.0127.58%
Triples /BIP0.29%÷1.150×0.820×0.988×1.0120.21%
Home runs /BIP2.89%÷1.010×0.830—×1.0122.40%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .338 → .270; ISO .138 → .110; BABIP .326 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 35 PAwOBA .318 → .248 (−70)K% 31.4% → 43.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.43%÷0.990×1.360——43.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.57%÷0.967×0.690—×1.0156.21%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP38.10%÷0.961×0.920—×1.01537.01%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.063×0.830—×1.0150.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910—×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP4.76%÷0.976×0.800—×1.0153.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 92, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .318 → .248; ISO .094 → .066; BABIP .400 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Braves · 15 PAwOBA .500 → .391 (−109)K% 20.0% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷1.020×1.440——28.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA40.00%÷0.958×0.620—×0.98525.50%
HBP% /PA6.67%—×0.720—×0.9854.73%
Singles /BIP60.00%÷0.977×0.820—×0.98549.58%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.882×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.928×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.893×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 76, 3B 86, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .500 → .391; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .600 → .496. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .