Sterlin Thompson

Sterlin ThompsonOF Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 25 L/R 6'3" / 209 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION311 act + 207 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†101

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .326 / .369

PA207

HR5

SB6

K%26

BB%9

BABIP308

ISO132

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT48

xwOBA

380.295

POWER47

Barrel%

356.3

Avg EV

1786.6

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED43

Sprint

5227.6

DEFENSE41

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$7M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$31M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	ROK	2 teams	—	111	103	24	5	0	2	3	41	3	3	0	233	275	340	615	107	355	37	3	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK	2 teams	—	111	101	31	7	0	2	5	28	3	3	0	307	358	436	793	129	397	25	5	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	3 teams	—	507	463	103	22	1	14	28	122	12	24	6	222	284	365	649	143	269	24	6	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	3 teams	—	507	435	131	32	3	14	56	98	12	24	6	301	396	485	881	184	358	19	11	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	518	479	97	13	4	14	26	162	9	12	4	203	257	334	591	132	270	31	5	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	518	462	113	18	4	13	43	122	9	12	4	245	321	385	706	141	302	24	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	513	456	97	20	6	12	36	155	18	12	4	213	296	362	658	149	291	30	7	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	513	439	130	28	8	18	53	107	18	12	4	296	394	519	913	223	353	21	10	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	COL	—	311	266	68	10	1	7	35	70	10	11	5	256	363	380	743	124	323	23	11	328	109	+3	+0	+0	-2	+9	1.1
YTD	25	AAA	COL	—	311	254	74	11	1	8	47	59	10	11	5	291	421	437	858	146	353	19	15	390	157	+20	+0	+0	-2	+9	2.8
ROS	25	AAA	COL	100%	207	181	43	7	1	5	18	54	6	6	2	237	326	369	696	132	309	26	9	318	101	+0	+0	-1	-1	+6	0.5
ROS	25	MLB	COL	100%	207	181	47	8	1	6	18	54	6	6	2	260	346	414	761	155	332	26	9	318	102	+0	+0	-1	-1	+6	0.5
FULL	25	AAA	COL	—	518	447	115	18	2	13	53	124	16	17	7	257	357	394	750	136	328	24	10	324	106	+4	+1	-1	-3	+15	1.5
TOT	25	AAA	COL	—	518	447	111	17	2	12	53	124	16	17	7	248	349	376	724	127	317	24	10	324	106	+3	+1	-1	-3	+15	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	COL	65%	589	516	123	20	4	14	52	151	16	15	5	238	327	374	701	136	305	26	9	316	100	-0	+1	-2	-4	+17	1.2
2028	27	MLB	COL	65%	577	506	120	20	3	14	51	147	15	15	5	237	325	372	697	134	304	25	9	317	100	+0	+1	-2	-3	+16	1.2
2029	28	MLB	COL	65%	566	496	118	20	3	14	51	145	14	14	5	238	326	375	701	137	303	26	9	316	100	-0	+1	-3	-3	+16	1.1
2030	29	MLB	COL	65%	554	486	115	19	3	14	50	142	13	12	4	237	324	374	699	138	302	26	9	314	99	-1	+1	-4	-3	+16	0.9
2031	30	MLB	COL	65%	543	476	112	19	3	13	49	141	13	11	4	235	323	370	693	134	301	26	9	311	96	-2	+1	-4	-3	+15	0.6
2027	26	MLB	COL	65%	383	336	86	15	2	11	34	98	10	10	3	256	342	411	753	155	329	26	9	318	101	+1	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.9
2028	27	MLB	COL	65%	375	330	85	15	2	11	33	96	9	9	3	258	341	415	757	158	327	26	9	319	103	+1	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.9
2029	28	MLB	COL	65%	368	323	83	14	2	11	33	94	9	9	3	257	342	415	757	158	326	26	9	319	103	+1	+1	-2	-2	+10	0.8
2030	29	MLB	COL	65%	360	316	80	14	2	10	32	92	9	8	3	253	339	405	744	152	325	26	9	318	101	+1	+0	-2	-2	+10	0.7
2031	30	MLB	COL	65%	353	310	78	13	2	10	32	91	8	7	3	252	337	403	740	152	324	26	9	315	99	-0	+0	-3	-2	+10	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2046	1796	459	79	11	59	182	525	51	49	17	256	341	410	751	155	327	26	9	318	101	+3	+3	-11	-12	+58	4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	145	25	3	19	58	167	16	16	5	254	340	408	748	154	325	26	9	318	101	+1	+1	-4	-4	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	4685	4162	952	165	28	116	364	1260	119	124	39	229	309	365	674	137	297	27	8	301	89	-60	+9	-17	-28	+133	3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	132	23	4	16	50	175	17	17	5	229	309	366	675	137	297	27	8	301	89	-8	+1	-2	-4	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	50	46	16	4	0	1	3	12	0	2	0	348	388	500	888	152	441	24	6	385	153	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2022	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	61	55	15	3	0	1	2	16	3	1	0	273	333	382	715	109	359	26	3	319	103	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	144	126	30	3	0	7	15	32	3	3	1	238	333	429	762	190	264	22	10	342	120	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	263	229	74	22	1	7	23	42	8	14	2	323	404	520	923	197	366	16	9	404	167	+20	+2	—	—	+7	3.0
2023	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	100	80	27	7	2	0	18	24	1	7	3	338	465	475	940	137	474	24	18	418	178	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2024	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	518	462	113	18	4	13	43	122	9	12	4	245	321	385	706	141	302	24	8	316	100	+0	+1	—	—	+15	1.6
2025	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	513	439	130	28	8	18	53	107	18	12	4	296	394	519	913	223	353	21	10	400	164	+37	+1	—	—	+15	5.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Tuckerlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,732 PA	7	2,732	71	71	253	340	419	-23	-26	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	17	17	253	340	419	-5.5	-6.3	1.8	pk7: 7
#2Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,104	52	47	237	319	375	-13	-17	4.3	4.3
	/162	664	16	15	237	319	375	-4.0	-5.4	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sterlin Thompson (OGILVIE)	25	40→48	50→47	40→43	40	248/349/376	127	317	12	17	24%	10%	106	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shed Long Jr. 2021 · MLB	25	45→47	48→50	49→50	44	225/287/369	144	298	16	12	29%	8%	82	+0.5	221/285/353	132	308	13	10	31%	8%	78	+0.2	211/279/335	125	300	12	6	32%	8%	67	-0.1
✕Brandon Jones 2009 · MLB	25	50→53	46→55	48→50	44	245/295/385	140	307	13	12	24%	6%	89	+1.0	226/288/333	107	289	8	8	23%	8%	72	-0.2	213/281/306	93	274	7	5	23%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Cody Asche 2015 · MLB	25	50→55	48→50	47→45	44	250/300/393	142	312	15	6	24%	6%	94	+1.3	231/288/373	142	292	15	5	25%	7%	84	+0.6	220/281/357	137	280	15	4	26%	7%	74	-0.1
●Ka'ai Tom 2019 · AA	25	45→50	48→55	49→50	45	229/293/378	149	287	16	13	26%	7%	88	+0.9	234/301/417	183	302	21	8	28%	7%	102	+1.8	213/291/391	178	283	20	6	31%	8%	87	+0.5
●Scott Moore 2009 · MLB	25	43→51	50→55	46→50	41	219/282/373	154	287	17	7	29%	6%	82	+0.5	221/278/358	137	272	16	7	24%	6%	76	+0.1	235/301/375	139	291	15	5	24%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2013 · AAA	25	47	47→45	48→45	44	233/285/368	135	293	14	9	26%	7%	82	+0.5	224/296/340	116	277	10	8	21%	9%	79	+0.3	245/326/331	86	298	6	6	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	42	49→55	44→45	42	217/280/369	152	292	17	8	31%	7%	80	+0.4	214/291/380	166	286	21	7	31%	9%	88	+0.9	193/273/381	188	236	29	8	32%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2013 · MLB	25	50	47→60	45→50	43	243/300/384	141	336	14	10	31%	7%	92	+1.2	217/283/377	160	301	17	10	32%	8%	83	+0.6	219/300/412	193	303	21	11	33%	10%	95	+0.8
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	51→50	41→40	44	222/308/378	155	297	19	3	30%	8%	95	+1.4	207/300/356	149	279	17	4	30%	9%	86	+0.8	174/281/301	128	241	13	0	31%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Nick Williams 2019 · MLB	25	48→57	52→55	44→45	40	245/296/409	164	317	20	6	29%	6%	97	+1.5	233/288/397	164	306	20	7	30%	6%	91	+1.1	214/264/375	161	288	20	6	32%	4%	71	-0.1
✕Forrest Wall 2021 · AAA	25	44→54	45	50→70	43	217/280/344	127	299	12	16	30%	7%	73	-0.1	222/281/319	97	326	6	45	32%	7%	66	-0.6	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Rene Tosoni 2011 · AA	25	48→47	47→50	46→45	44	237/307/382	144	311	14	8	27%	7%	95	+1.4	206/259/313	107	263	11	6	25%	6%	56	-1.3	194/243/288	94	242	10	5	24%	5%	39	-1.8
✕Mat Gamel 2010 · MLB	25	50→57	49→50	45	43	246/303/401	155	337	16	6	30%	7%	98	+1.6	245/301/397	152	304	18	5	25%	7%	96	+1.5	249/304/402	153	293	20	3	22%	6%	97	+1.3
✕Josh Kroeger 2008 · AAA	25	47→56	49→50	48→50	42	241/282/386	145	293	17	10	24%	5%	85	+0.7	239/285/383	144	283	16	15	21%	6%	85	+0.7	213/272/356	144	233	17	11	17%	6%	72	-0.1
●Matt Koperniak 2023 · AA	25	52→56	46→50	47→45	45	256/312/383	127	310	14	9	22%	6%	97	+1.5	252/304/391	139	307	17	9	23%	6%	95	+1.4	247/300/387	140	300	17	8	23%	6%	90	+0.9
✕Chris Snelling 2007 · MLB	25	48→39	45	43→40	48	233/313/359	127	297	12	8	25%	8%	92	+1.2	225/317/330	105	285	9	6	23%	10%	86	+0.8	226/327/314	88	278	7	1	19%	11%	83	+0.2
●Zach McKinstry 2021 · AAA	26	47→54	51→55	45→55	43	236/292/396	160	301	18	8	28%	6%	92	+1.2	238/299/398	160	293	17	11	24%	7%	95	+1.4	243/315/392	149	299	12	23	22%	8%	98	+1.2
✕Nicky Delmonico 2017 · AAA	25	47	51→55	48→45	42	237/286/410	173	304	18	5	28%	6%	93	+1.3	231/299/381	150	287	16	5	24%	8%	91	+1.1	225/300/366	141	278	15	4	23%	8%	85	+0.4
✕Dominic Smith 2020 · MLB	25	48→52	50	43→40	44	243/296/401	158	304	18	4	26%	6%	95	+1.4	255/317/425	170	311	19	4	23%	7%	110	+2.4	249/315/401	152	304	16	3	22%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Michael Massey 2023 · MLB	25	46→51	53→55	52→50	42	239/292/412	173	291	21	12	26%	6%	97	+1.5	244/287/405	161	282	19	8	21%	5%	92	+1.2	250/287/398	149	277	17	3	17%	4%	87	+0.5