Murphy Stehly3B
Harrisburg Senators
Age 27
R/R
5'10" / 205 lbs
AA
HR -9%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.1 · 2026
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .288 / .333
PA159
HR3
K%29
BB%7
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
33→33
PWR
39→39
SPD
48→48
EYE
40→40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-1M | $-8M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | 4 teams | 270 | 244 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 11 | 10 | 5 | .262 | .331 | .336 | .667 | .074 | .346 | 24 | 5 | .293 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | 3 teams | 284 | 254 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 101 | 15 | 4 | 2 | .169 | .246 | .252 | .498 | .083 | .265 | 36 | 4 | .216 | 23 | -25 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 184 | 159 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 49 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .258 | .352 | .428 | .779 | .170 | .333 | 27 | 9 | .339 | 117 | +4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 159 | 143 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .210 | .285 | .329 | .613 | .119 | .289 | 29 | 6 | .284 | 75 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 9% | WSH | 215 | 192 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 62 | 6 | 3 | 1 | .224 | .300 | .359 | .660 | .135 | .289 | 29 | 7 | .287 | 78 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 19% | WSH | 268 | 240 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 76 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .221 | .297 | .350 | .647 | .129 | .289 | 28 | 7 | .287 | 78 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 29% | WSH | 304 | 271 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 87 | 8 | 4 | 2 | .218 | .296 | .347 | .643 | .129 | .288 | 29 | 7 | .286 | 77 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 40% | WSH | 306 | 273 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 88 | 8 | 4 | 1 | .212 | .290 | .330 | .620 | .117 | .286 | 29 | 7 | .283 | 75 | -9 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 49% | WSH | 299 | 268 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 8 | 3 | 1 | .209 | .286 | .325 | .611 | .116 | .285 | 29 | 7 | .279 | 71 | -10 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 63% | WSH | 276 | 248 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 83 | 7 | 3 | 1 | .206 | .281 | .315 | .596 | .109 | .283 | 30 | 7 | .273 | 67 | -10 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB 81% | WSH | 238 | 213 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 74 | 6 | 3 | 1 | .202 | .280 | .310 | .590 | .108 | .281 | 31 | 7 | .267 | 62 | -10 | +0 | -5 | +1 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2803 | 2505 | 541 | 110 | 11 | 52 | 186 | 818 | 88 | 44 | 17 | .216 | .293 | .331 | .624 | .115 | .296 | 29 | 7 | .279 | 72 | -89 | +2 | -20 | +10 | +79 | -1.8 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 581 | 126 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 190 | 20 | 10 | 4 | .217 | .293 | .334 | .627 | .117 | .298 | 29 | 7 | .279 | 72 | -21 | +0 | -5 | +2 | +18 | -0.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .160 | .250 | .160 | .410 | .000 | .211 | 21 | 4 | .207 | 16 | -3 | -0 | — | — | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 131 | 118 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .314 | .382 | .424 | .805 | .110 | .389 | 20 | 8 | .364 | 136 | +5 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 85 | 71 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .394 | .488 | .493 | .981 | .099 | .459 | 13 | 9 | .438 | 193 | +9 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 26 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .238 | .385 | .286 | .670 | .048 | .294 | 15 | 15 | .324 | 106 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 242 | 209 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2 | .225 | .319 | .330 | .649 | .105 | .302 | 26 | 7 | .296 | 84 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .158 | .273 | .211 | .483 | .053 | .250 | 32 | 9 | .237 | 40 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 20 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .300 | .278 | .578 | .056 | .286 | 20 | 0 | .273 | 67 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 140 | 119 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .328 | .420 | .529 | .950 | .202 | .378 | 18 | 11 | .414 | 175 | +12 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 44 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .182 | .386 | .394 | .780 | .212 | .211 | 27 | 18 | .362 | 136 | +2 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Murphy Stehly (OGILVIE) | 27 | 33 | 39 | 48 | 40 | .212/.288/.333 | .121 | .289 | 3 | 2 | 29% | 7% | 75 | +0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .205/.269/.321 | .117 | .279 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .216/.284/.361 | .145 | .260 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .203/.270/.374 | .171 | .212 | 20 | 2 | 16% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA |
27 | 40→38 | 43→50 | 47→30 | 40 | .197/.265/.308 | .111 | .291 | 11 | 5 | 34% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .199/.260/.292 | .093 | .305 | 9 | 6 | 35% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .163/.224/.224 | .061 | .249 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 7% | 16 | -1.3 |
|
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA |
27 | 40→50 | 45 | 47→45 | 40 | .204/.266/.319 | .115 | .281 | 13 | 8 | 31% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .228/.277/.351 | .123 | .290 | 14 | 7 | 26% | 5% | 74 | -0.1 | .227/.276/.326 | .099 | .301 | 12 | 4 | 27% | 5% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA |
27 | 42 | 43→50 | 49→40 | 48 | .208/.284/.316 | .108 | .260 | 11 | 7 | 24% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.292/.328 | .122 | .270 | 13 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .190/.289/.313 | .123 | .250 | 14 | 1 | 28% | 10% | 69 | -0.1 |
|
✕Arturo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA |
27 | 45→41 | 43→45 | 46→30 | 43 | .223/.266/.329 | .107 | .272 | 12 | 5 | 23% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .258/.294/.402 | .144 | .289 | 19 | 6 | 18% | 4% | 94 | +1.3 | .282/.311/.427 | .146 | .305 | 23 | 2 | 16% | 3% | 103 | +1.0 |
|
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA |
27 | 42→46 | 43→45 | 49→50 | 43 | .206/.269/.317 | .110 | .278 | 10 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 61 | -1.0 | .201/.276/.293 | .092 | .275 | 7 | 9 | 27% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .191/.273/.268 | .077 | .259 | 6 | 10 | 26% | 9% | 48 | -1.1 |
|
✕Sharlon Schoop 2014 · AA |
27 | 43→44 | 45→40 | 46→45 | 43 | .219/.272/.337 | .119 | .277 | 13 | 8 | 26% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .212/.259/.296 | .084 | .278 | 7 | 4 | 25% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .204/.257/.319 | .115 | .259 | 12 | 0 | 26% | 6% | 52 | -0.5 |
|
✕Sean Jamieson 2016 · AA |
27 | 49→46 | 43→45 | 46→50 | 43 | .235/.294/.348 | .113 | .314 | 10 | 10 | 27% | 6% | 80 | +0.4 | .217/.276/.307 | .090 | .324 | 7 | 8 | 33% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .182/.236/.235 | .053 | .302 | 2 | 0 | 38% | 6% | 22 | -1.2 |
|
✕Renae Martinez 2021 · AA |
27 | 42→32 | 43→50 | 44→40 | 43 | .208/.271/.314 | .106 | .276 | 10 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .195/.264/.310 | .115 | .308 | 11 | 8 | 37% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .139/.221/.264 | .125 | .227 | 13 | 6 | 43% | 8% | 26 | -0.9 |
|
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA |
26 | 41→45 | 48→50 | 50 | 40 | .208/.269/.350 | .142 | .293 | 15 | 10 | 33% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .222/.287/.357 | .135 | .316 | 14 | 10 | 32% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .221/.286/.344 | .123 | .313 | 13 | 9 | 32% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA |
26 | 41 | 47→40 | 48→55 | 41 | .209/.268/.341 | .133 | .288 | 15 | 14 | 32% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .231/.302/.338 | .107 | .302 | 9 | 28 | 25% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .241/.322/.332 | .091 | .312 | 6 | 48 | 22% | 9% | 85 | +0.3 |
|
✕Ryan Dorow 2022 · AAA |
26 | 41→42 | 46→45 | 48→45 | 41 | .206/.273/.337 | .131 | .294 | 14 | 8 | 34% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .211/.273/.328 | .117 | .292 | 11 | 6 | 30% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .198/.264/.293 | .095 | .274 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 7% | 50 | -1.2 |
|
✕Skye Bolt 2021 · AAA |
27 | 42→39 | 47→50 | 50 | 42 | .209/.273/.350 | .141 | .295 | 15 | 13 | 33% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .232/.296/.375 | .143 | .310 | 16 | 13 | 29% | 7% | 88 | +0.9 | .234/.302/.369 | .135 | .310 | 15 | 12 | 28% | 8% | 86 | +0.3 |
|
✕Quincy Latimore 2016 · AA |
27 | 44→42 | 48→50 | 47→50 | 41 | .223/.272/.364 | .142 | .286 | 15 | 10 | 28% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .209/.260/.342 | .133 | .281 | 16 | 7 | 30% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .195/.247/.315 | .120 | .261 | 16 | 4 | 31% | 6% | 48 | -1.4 |
|
✕Julian Laurean 2011 · AAA |
27 | 45 | 45→40 | 44→40 | 41 | .224/.277/.347 | .122 | .291 | 12 | 9 | 27% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .226/.281/.334 | .108 | .280 | 9 | 7 | 22% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .222/.281/.307 | .085 | .269 | 5 | 0 | 18% | 6% | 64 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jason Delay 2021 · AA |
26 | 41 | 44→45 | 49→40 | 38 | .208/.261/.320 | .112 | .286 | 13 | 6 | 32% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.252/.302 | .097 | .293 | 8 | 5 | 31% | 5% | 50 | -1.8 | .226/.285/.301 | .075 | .297 | 3 | 2 | 23% | 6% | 61 | -0.4 |
|
✕Jeremy Farrell 2014 · AAA |
27 | 42→38 | 41→45 | 43→45 | 39 | .204/.271/.301 | .098 | .292 | 8 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.260/.301 | .096 | .309 | 7 | 5 | 34% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .201/.247/.287 | .087 | .313 | 4 | 3 | 35% | 4% | 41 | -0.9 |
|
✕Cody Clark 2009 · AA |
27 | 43 | 42→45 | 47→40 | 41 | .214/.262/.317 | .103 | .260 | 10 | 6 | 22% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .222/.270/.348 | .126 | .258 | 14 | 5 | 20% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .219/.268/.341 | .122 | .251 | 12 | 1 | 18% | 5% | 64 | -0.3 |
|
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA |
27 | 43 | 44→55 | 49→40 | 38 | .216/.260/.334 | .118 | .297 | 12 | 6 | 31% | 5% | 62 | -0.9 | .198/.249/.294 | .096 | .291 | 8 | 6 | 33% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .142/.197/.220 | .078 | .216 | 6 | 0 | 36% | 5% | 4 | -1.2 |
|
✕Davis Stoneburner 2012 · AA |
27 | 47→48 | 44→45 | 51→50 | 42 | .230/.284/.355 | .125 | .290 | 11 | 13 | 24% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .206/.262/.297 | .091 | .279 | 6 | 15 | 27% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .168/.224/.225 | .057 | .241 | 0 | 17 | 28% | 5% | 15 | -2.4 |