Murphy Stehly
3B Wichita Wind Surge| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+/A/ROKWSH | 284 | .220/.314/.317 | 2 | 4 | 28 | — | .169/.243/.251 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA/A+WSH | 184 | .296/.412/.500 | 7 | 4 | 107 | — | .250/.346/.420 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAMIN | 49 | .159/.229/.227 | 1 | 1 | -3 | — | .133/.188/.200 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBMIN | 2 | .224/.297/.357 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBMIN | 27 | .223/.295/.353 | 1 | 0 | 83 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 250 | 160 | 410 | 211 | 21 | 4 | 207 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 131 | 118 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 314 | 382 | 424 | 805 | 110 | 389 | 20 | 8 | 364 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 85 | 71 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 394 | 488 | 493 | 981 | 99 | 459 | 13 | 9 | 438 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 26 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 385 | 286 | 670 | 48 | 294 | 15 | 15 | 324 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 242 | 209 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 319 | 330 | 649 | 105 | 302 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 211 | 483 | 53 | 250 | 32 | 9 | 237 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 20 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 56 | 286 | 20 | 0 | 273 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 140 | 119 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 328 | 420 | 529 | 950 | 202 | 378 | 18 | 11 | 414 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 44 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 386 | 394 | 780 | 212 | 211 | 27 | 18 | 362 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 49 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 159 | 229 | 227 | 456 | 68 | 222 | 35 | 6 | 211 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 250 | 160 | 410 | 201 | 25 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 131 | 122 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 298 | 344 | 642 | 98 | 324 | 27 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 85 | 74 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 351 | 429 | 432 | 861 | 81 | 405 | 18 | 6 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 26 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 174 | 269 | 217 | 487 | 43 | 227 | 23 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 242 | 217 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 83 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 171 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 88 | 245 | 34 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 22 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 227 | 200 | 427 | 50 | 217 | 41 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 20 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 250 | 222 | 472 | 56 | 211 | 30 | 0 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 140 | 123 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 285 | 362 | 447 | 809 | 163 | 340 | 22 | 8 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 44 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 139 | 295 | 333 | 629 | 194 | 170 | 36 | 11 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 49 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 200 | 388 | 67 | 196 | 43 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 270 | 244 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 63 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 258 | 327 | 332 | 659 | 74 | 339 | 23 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 270 | 235 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 47 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 315 | 401 | 404 | 806 | 89 | 385 | 17 | 9 | 367 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 284 | 255 | 42 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 98 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 165 | 239 | 243 | 482 | 78 | 252 | 35 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 284 | 246 | 54 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 314 | 317 | 631 | 98 | 297 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 160 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 256 | 346 | 425 | 771 | 169 | 324 | 26 | 8 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 184 | 152 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 296 | 412 | 500 | 912 | 204 | 349 | 20 | 12 | 402 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 49 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 200 | 388 | 67 | 208 | 43 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 49 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 159 | 229 | 227 | 456 | 68 | 222 | 35 | 6 | 211 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 270 | 243 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 63 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 259 | 327 | 333 | 660 | 74 | 327 | 23 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 284 | 257 | 42 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 98 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 163 | 239 | 241 | 481 | 78 | 240 | 35 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 160 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 256 | 346 | 425 | 771 | 169 | 299 | 26 | 8 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 49 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 188 | 196 | 383 | 65 | 196 | 43 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 284 | 257 | 42 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 98 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 163 | 239 | 241 | 481 | 78 | 240 | 35 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 160 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 256 | 346 | 425 | 771 | 169 | 299 | 26 | 8 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 49 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 188 | 196 | 383 | 65 | 196 | 43 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 2% | 200 | 179 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 297 | 356 | 653 | 132 | 290 | 27 | 8 | 294 | 85 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 357 | 654 | 132 | 290 | 50 | 0 | 294 | 85 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 23% | 120 | 108 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 223 | 295 | 352 | 648 | 130 | 288 | 27 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 23% | 27 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 295 | 353 | 648 | 130 | 289 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 83 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 333 | 417 | 750 | 167 | 312 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 67 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 144 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 169 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 332 | 415 | 748 | 166 | 312 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 67 | -13 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 991 | 888 | 192 | 37 | 3 | 16 | 56 | 284 | 38 | 22 | 8 | 216 | 291 | 319 | 610 | 102 | 295 | 29 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 125 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 186 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 215 | 290 | 314 | 605 | 100 | 294 | 29 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -12 | +2 | -4 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 49 PAwOBA .210 → .164 (−46)K% 34.7% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 19.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .210 → .164; ISO .068 → .050; BABIP .222 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 140 PAwOBA .406 → .349 (−57)K% 17.9% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.60% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×0.978 | 24.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.57% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×0.967 | ×0.978 | 8.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×0.967 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .406 → .349; ISO .202 → .172; BABIP .378 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 44 PAwOBA .354 → .259 (−95)K% 27.3% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 10.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.82% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 5.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 11.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 8.30% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .354 → .259; ISO .212 → .180; BABIP .211 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 242 PAwOBA .291 → .216 (−75)K% 25.6% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.62% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.61% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.96% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 3.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.09% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.986 | ×0.968 | 17.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×0.986 | ×0.968 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.986 | ×0.968 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .291 → .216; ISO .105 → .081; BABIP .302 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 22 PAwOBA .232 → .171 (−61)K% 31.8% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 3.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 14.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.907 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 7.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .232 → .171; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 20 PAwOBA .266 → .180 (−87)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 10.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 6.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.021 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 16.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.987 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .180; ISO .056 → .035; BABIP .286 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 131 PAwOBA .354 → .274 (−81)K% 19.8% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.85% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.52% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 26.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .354 → .274; ISO .110 → .093; BABIP .389 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 85 PAwOBA .432 → .359 (−73)K% 12.9% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.94% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.41% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 4.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×0.970 | 31.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.67% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×0.970 | 9.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .432 → .359; ISO .099 → .079; BABIP .459 → .405. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).