Carlos Lopez (P, ACL Giants Orange) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carlos Lopez P ACL Giants Orange

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.3%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	14	0	20	80	27	12	0	0%	1.4	23.0%	18.8%	4.2%	0.0%	3.66	3.54	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	14	0	20	80	27	12	0	0%	1.4	33.8%	15.0%	18.8%	0.0%	3.66	2.18	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	15	0	19	101	26	16	1	0%	1.3	17.5%	19.8%	-2.3%	1.4%	4.66	4.91	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	15	0	19	101	26	16	1	0%	1.3	25.7%	15.8%	9.9%	1.0%	4.66	3.57	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	13	9	49	228	50	32	3	69%	3.8	14.9%	17.5%	-2.6%	1.3%	5.14	4.80	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	13	9	49	228	50	32	3	69%	3.8	14.9%	17.5%	-2.6%	1.3%	5.14	4.80	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	13	9	49	228	50	32	3	69%	3.8	21.9%	14.0%	7.9%	1.3%	5.14	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	28	0	30	126	29	15	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.63	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	12	0	13	55	13	6	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	12	6	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.25	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	94	31	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		42	9	88	409	70	75	4	21%	2.1	17.1%	18.3%	-1.2%	1.1%	4.70	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	20	200	930	159	170	10	21%	2.1	17.1%	18.3%	-1.2%	1.1%	4.70	4.58	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.3%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.63	22.9%	11.4%	30	-0.24	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	87
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	85
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	82
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	80
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	80
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	80
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	80
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	80
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	79
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	79
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	79
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	79
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	79
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	78
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	78
Jonathan Sánchez L 2006 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	17.8%	12.4%	1.1%	.291	3.85	24.1%	12.9%	373	+0.09	3.65	895	78
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	77
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	77
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.3%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.6%	12.2%	1.15	4.78
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99