Francis Hernandez

Francis Hernandez P Salem Red Sox

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%18.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	13	13	49	196	47	11	3	100%	3.8	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	1.2%	2.92	3.27	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	13	13	49	196	47	11	3	100%	3.8	24.0%	5.6%	18.4%	1.5%	2.92	2.65	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	12	1	38	166	40	15	4	8%	3.2	16.4%	11.3%	5.1%	3.6%	4.46	5.11	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	12	1	38	166	40	15	4	8%	3.2	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	2.4%	4.46	3.54	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	14	3	27	114	19	11	1	21%	2.0	11.3%	12.1%	-0.7%	1.3%	2.30	4.36	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	14	3	27	114	19	11	1	21%	2.0	11.3%	12.1%	-0.7%	1.3%	2.30	4.36	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	14	3	27	114	19	11	1	21%	2.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.0%	0.9%	2.30	3.39	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	1	65	298	57	38	8	3%	2.0	14.2%	15.0%	-0.9%	3.7%	7.20	5.86	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	1	65	298	57	38	8	3%	2.0	14.2%	15.0%	-0.9%	3.7%	7.20	5.86	—
2024	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	32	1	65	298	57	38	8	3%	2.0	19.1%	12.8%	6.4%	2.7%	7.20	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	BOS	3	0	3	13	2	2	0	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.5%	4.7%	3.0%	5.33	5.33	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	250	49	30	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.1%	7.3%	3.0%	5.11	5.03	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	250	50	30	8	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.8%	8.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.94	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	24	0	25	106	21	13	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.1%	7.3%	3.0%	5.11	5.03	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	37	0	39	165	33	20	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.8%	8.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	65	272	54	33	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	3.0%	5.04	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	102	25	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	3.0%	5.04	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		71	18	180	774	114	91	21	25%	2.5	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	2.7%	4.70	4.82	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	20	200	860	127	101	23	25%	2.5	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	2.7%	4.70	4.82	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	18.1%	13.5%	3.0%	—	4.99	19.8%	7.8%	118	-0.34	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	87
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	85
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	80
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	80
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	78
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.37	27.1%	13.6%	163	-0.08	3.08	344	78
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	78
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	78
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	78
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	78
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	78
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	19.4%	12.4%	1.17	5.12
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58