Francis Hernandez
P
Salem Red Sox
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 13 | 13 | 49 | 196 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 0.8% | 2.92 | 3.07 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 13 | 13 | 49 | 196 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 24.0% | 5.6% | 18.4% | 1.5% | 2.92 | 2.65 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 1 | 38 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 8% | 3.2 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.46 | 5.24 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 1 | 38 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 8% | 3.2 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 14 | 3 | 27 | 114 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 21% | 2.0 | 11.3% | 12.1% | -0.7% | 1.3% | 2.30 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 14 | 3 | 27 | 114 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 21% | 2.0 | 16.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 0.9% | 2.30 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 32 | 1 | 65 | 298 | 57 | 38 | 8 | 3% | 2.0 | 14.2% | 15.0% | -0.9% | 4.0% | 7.20 | 6.02 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 32 | 1 | 65 | 298 | 57 | 38 | 8 | 3% | 2.0 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 7.20 | 4.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.12 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 83 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 18 | 180 | 774 | 114 | 91 | 21 | 25% | 2.5 | 14.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.86 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 79 | 20 | 200 | 860 | 127 | 101 | 24 | 25% | 2.5 | 14.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Francis Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.50 | 22.3% | 12.6% | 39 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 88 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 85 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 83 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 82 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 82 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 81 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 80 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 80 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 80 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .304 | 3.92 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 166 | -1.17 | 3.59 | 307 | 80 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 79 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 318 | 79 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 79 |
| Diego Granado R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.40 | 15.5% | 1.1% | 40 | -0.86 | 4.40 | 110 | 79 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 79 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.48 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 163 | +0.03 | 3.30 | 323 | 79 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 78 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 39 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 1.18 | 4.58 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |