Ismael Mota prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ismael Mota P DSL Giants Black

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%22.7%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	9	1	17	74	17	3	3	11%	1.9	15.6%	5.1%	10.6%	5.4%	5.71	5.39	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	9	1	17	74	17	3	3	11%	1.9	23.0%	4.1%	18.9%	4.1%	5.71	3.91	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	11	11	43	184	55	25	1	100%	3.9	20.3%	17.0%	3.3%	0.8%	3.14	3.96	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	11	11	43	184	55	25	1	100%	3.9	29.9%	13.6%	16.3%	0.5%	3.14	2.59	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	15	0	21	104	19	20	2	0%	1.4	12.4%	24.0%	-11.6%	2.4%	5.14	6.42	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	15	0	21	104	19	20	2	0%	1.4	12.4%	24.0%	-11.6%	2.4%	5.14	6.42	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	15	0	21	104	19	20	2	0%	1.4	18.3%	19.2%	-1.0%	1.9%	5.14	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.67	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		35	12	81	362	62	60	8	34%	2.3	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	2.2%	4.20	4.96	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	30	200	890	152	148	20	34%	2.3	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	2.2%	4.20	4.96	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ismael Mota (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	22.7%	13.2%	3.0%	—	4.67	23.1%	11.3%	20	-0.21	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	82
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	76
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	76
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	75
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	75
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	75
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	75
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	74
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	74
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.10	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.04	3.84	249	74
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	73
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	73
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	73
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	73
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	73