Adam Shoemaker

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AATL	24	3	70	6.20	3.67	27.5%	18.4%	—	K 20.3% · BB 21.7% · FIP 4.78
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	0	38	5.02	3.58	24.9%	17.5%	—	K 17.6% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.41
2026	23	MIX3 levels	14	9	48	3.97	4.86	25.2%	23.5%	—	K 19.9% · BB 26.4% · FIP 5.77
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	24	0	25	5.82	5.82	20.2%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	18	0	19	5.49	5.37	20.9%	16.9%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsColby Langford (age 22) · Larson Kindreich (age 24) · Braeden Fausnaught (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127136vR 144

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%20.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.2%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	3	2	5	26	6	7	0	67%	1.8	23.1%	26.9%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.75	4.56	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	3	2	5	26	6	7	0	67%	1.8	23.1%	26.9%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.75	4.79	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	38	175	37	24	1	85%	2.9	13.9%	16.2%	-2.3%	0.9%	6.87	4.46	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	38	175	37	24	1	85%	2.9	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	0.6%	6.87	3.39	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	14	68	319	67	52	9	64%	3.1	15.5%	19.2%	-3.7%	3.8%	6.06	6.29	—
2023	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	22	14	68	319	67	52	9	64%	3.1	21.0%	16.3%	4.7%	2.8%	6.06	5.13	—
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	24	3	70	331	91	61	3	12%	2.9	20.3%	21.7%	-1.4%	1.2%	6.20	4.78	—
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	24	3	70	331	91	61	3	12%	2.9	20.3%	21.7%	-1.4%	1.2%	6.20	4.78	—
2024	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	24	3	70	331	91	61	3	12%	2.9	27.5%	18.4%	9.1%	0.9%	6.20	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	177	44	31	1	0%	1.6	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	0.7%	5.02	4.41	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	177	44	31	1	0%	1.6	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	0.7%	5.02	4.41	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	38	177	44	31	1	0%	1.6	24.9%	17.5%	7.3%	0.6%	5.02	3.58	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	9	48	226	57	53	3	64%	3.4	19.9%	26.4%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.97	5.77	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	9	48	226	57	53	3	64%	3.4	19.9%	26.4%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.97	5.77	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	9	48	226	57	53	3	64%	3.4	25.2%	23.5%	1.8%	1.3%	3.97	4.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	24	0	25	106	21	21	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	20.0%	0.2%	2.8%	5.82	5.82	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	41	0	43	183	38	31	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.9%	4.0%	2.8%	5.49	5.37	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	18	0	19	80	17	14	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.9%	4.0%	2.8%	5.49	5.37	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	78	16	13	2	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.9%	4.0%	2.8%	5.49	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	140	22	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.9%	4.0%	2.8%	5.49	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		99	39	267	1254	223	262	23	39%	2.7	17.8%	20.9%	-3.1%	1.8%	5.70	5.24	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	29	200	941	168	196	17	39%	2.7	17.8%	20.9%	-3.1%	1.8%	5.70	5.24	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Shoemaker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	20.2%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.37	20.9%	4.0%	43	-0.45	—	—	—
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	85
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	82
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	81
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	73
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	73
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	72
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	71
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	70
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	69
Randy Keisler L 2000 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	11.5%	15.4%	1.9%	.405	6.43	15.3%	0.9%	51	+1.30	5.07	135	68
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	68
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	68
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	68
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	67
Rich Hill L 2005 · 4.75 FIP	25	SW	4.75	18.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.293	4.24	21.9%	13.1%	314	-0.51	2.05	1,484	67
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	67
Franklyn Soriano L 2019 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	13.2%	17.5%	1.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	241	66
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	66
Brendan Cellucci L 2022 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	22.4%	17.9%	2.7%	.320	4.48	23.3%	7.7%	137	-0.47	3.98	288	66
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	20.7%	18.0%	1.07	5.61
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*