Ryan Clifford
1B Syracuse Mets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AA/A+NYM | 541 | .228/.374/.421 | 19 | 4 | 91 | — | .203/.309/.378 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA/AANYM | 579 | .237/.360/.470 | 29 | 7 | 92 | — | .208/.304/.390 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAANYM | 470 | .180/.279/.363 | 18 | 8 | 34 | — | .142/.219/.267 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 24 | MLBNYM | 21 | .190/.275/.349 | 1 | 0 | 80 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 25 | MLBNYM | 90 | .195/.280/.361 | 3 | 1 | 84 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 26 | MLBNYM | 141 | .198/.283/.369 | 5 | 2 | 87 | -0.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 51 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 412 | 390 | 802 | 122 | 400 | 29 | 20 | 370 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | — | 50 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 440 | 389 | 829 | 167 | 368 | 32 | 24 | 388 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 390 | 331 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 22 | 39 | 113 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 345 | 486 | 831 | 245 | 286 | 29 | 10 | 361 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 121 | 92 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 337 | 492 | 457 | 948 | 120 | 453 | 22 | 21 | 429 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 405 | 333 | 77 | 21 | 0 | 18 | 63 | 117 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 231 | 361 | 456 | 817 | 225 | 294 | 29 | 16 | 362 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 136 | 102 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 412 | 304 | 716 | 88 | 362 | 32 | 24 | 347 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 142 | 114 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 219 | 364 | 395 | 759 | 175 | 263 | 25 | 15 | 343 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 437 | 367 | 89 | 18 | 1 | 24 | 63 | 113 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 358 | 493 | 851 | 251 | 278 | 26 | 14 | 372 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 470 | 410 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 53 | 174 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 279 | 363 | 642 | 183 | 253 | 37 | 11 | 288 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 51 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 333 | 341 | 674 | 114 | 383 | 41 | 14 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros Orange | — | 50 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 150 | 320 | 275 | 595 | 125 | 288 | 46 | 16 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 390 | 345 | 66 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 25 | 145 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 272 | 380 | 651 | 188 | 243 | 37 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 121 | 99 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 293 | 417 | 394 | 811 | 101 | 424 | 30 | 15 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 405 | 353 | 77 | 20 | 0 | 18 | 44 | 136 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 218 | 313 | 428 | 741 | 210 | 285 | 34 | 11 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 136 | 114 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 57 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 294 | 228 | 522 | 70 | 302 | 42 | 15 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 142 | 120 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 175 | 293 | 283 | 576 | 108 | 235 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 437 | 384 | 84 | 17 | 1 | 20 | 46 | 136 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 307 | 424 | 732 | 206 | 270 | 31 | 11 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 470 | 424 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 209 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 142 | 219 | 267 | 485 | 125 | 227 | 44 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 317 | 262 | 579 | 83 | 359 | 44 | 15 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 101 | 77 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 426 | 390 | 815 | 143 | 386 | 31 | 22 | 379 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 444 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 182 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 306 | 383 | 689 | 169 | 300 | 36 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 511 | 423 | 111 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 64 | 140 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 262 | 380 | 480 | 860 | 217 | 326 | 27 | 13 | 377 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 541 | 467 | 94 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 193 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 201 | 307 | 375 | 681 | 173 | 291 | 36 | 12 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 541 | 435 | 99 | 27 | 0 | 19 | 95 | 160 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 374 | 421 | 794 | 193 | 309 | 30 | 18 | 358 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 504 | 106 | 21 | 1 | 23 | 62 | 179 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 305 | 393 | 698 | 183 | 269 | 31 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 579 | 481 | 114 | 23 | 1 | 29 | 85 | 148 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 237 | 360 | 470 | 829 | 233 | 274 | 26 | 15 | 365 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 470 | 424 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 209 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 142 | 219 | 267 | 485 | 125 | 233 | 44 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Mets | — | 470 | 410 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 53 | 174 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 279 | 363 | 642 | 183 | 253 | 37 | 11 | 288 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 83 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 181 | 317 | 265 | 582 | 84 | 336 | 44 | 15 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 447 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 182 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 213 | 306 | 380 | 686 | 168 | 286 | 36 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 541 | 465 | 94 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 193 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 307 | 376 | 683 | 174 | 289 | 36 | 12 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 505 | 106 | 21 | 1 | 23 | 62 | 179 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 305 | 392 | 697 | 182 | 261 | 31 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 470 | 425 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 209 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 141 | 219 | 266 | 485 | 125 | 227 | 44 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 541 | 465 | 94 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 193 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 307 | 376 | 683 | 174 | 289 | 36 | 12 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 505 | 106 | 21 | 1 | 23 | 62 | 179 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 305 | 392 | 697 | 182 | 261 | 31 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 470 | 425 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 209 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 141 | 219 | 266 | 485 | 125 | 227 | 44 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYM | 10% | 380 | 338 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 135 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 195 | 280 | 357 | 637 | 162 | 276 | 36 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +0 | -0 | -7 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYM | 10% | 21 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 275 | 349 | 624 | 159 | 267 | 33 | 10 | 280 | 80 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 35% | 260 | 231 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 285 | 370 | 655 | 170 | 278 | 35 | 10 | 293 | 84 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 46% | 305 | 270 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 104 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 204 | 288 | 377 | 665 | 174 | 279 | 34 | 10 | 297 | 87 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 35% | 90 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 280 | 361 | 641 | 167 | 269 | 34 | 10 | 287 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 46% | 141 | 126 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 283 | 369 | 652 | 171 | 269 | 34 | 9 | 291 | 87 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 231 | 206 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 79 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 274 | 345 | 619 | 155 | 258 | 34 | 10 | 290 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +5 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 111 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 62 | 222 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 191 | 277 | 350 | 627 | 159 | 260 | 34 | 10 | 290 | 79 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -12 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2977 | 2610 | 508 | 106 | 6 | 102 | 297 | 1077 | 42 | 35 | 15 | 195 | 287 | 357 | 644 | 162 | 279 | 36 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -15 | +0 | -1 | -14 | +17 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 22 | 65 | 235 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 193 | 286 | 353 | 638 | 160 | 277 | 36 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 470 PAwOBA .282 → .218 (−64)K% 37.0% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.02% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | 14.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .282 → .218; ISO .183 → .132; BABIP .253 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 437 PAwOBA .365 → .315 (−49)K% 25.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.86% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.19% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 10.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.11% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.45% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 7.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .365 → .315; ISO .251 → .211; BABIP .278 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 142 PAwOBA .339 → .270 (−69)K% 24.6% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.65% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.49% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 11.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.99% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 18.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.022 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.167 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .339 → .270; ISO .175 → .119; BABIP .263 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 405 PAwOBA .353 → .322 (−31)K% 28.9% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.89% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 10.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.59% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.050 | 17.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×0.974 | ×1.050 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×0.974 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 8.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .353 → .322; ISO .225 → .221; BABIP .294 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 136 PAwOBA .340 → .244 (−96)K% 31.6% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.62% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 41.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 14.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 21.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.17% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 8.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .340 → .244; ISO .088 → .064; BABIP .362 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 390 PAwOBA .357 → .281 (−76)K% 29.0% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.97% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 2.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | 17.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.88% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.09% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 8.78% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .357 → .281; ISO .245 → .199; BABIP .286 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 121 PAwOBA .423 → .357 (−66)K% 22.3% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷1.016 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.66% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 14.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.92% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.030 | 35.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.030 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .423 → .357; ISO .120 → .099; BABIP .453 → .424. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 51 PAwOBA .361 → .286 (−76)K% 29.4% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.976 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.61% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 14.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 29.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 7.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .361 → .286; ISO .122 → .097; BABIP .400 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).