Jose Devers
3B Akron RubberDucks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+CLE | 426 | .216/.290/.320 | 7 | 14 | 39 | — | .187/.243/.266 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+CLE | 516 | .240/.295/.415 | 13 | 12 | 44 | — | .182/.229/.306 |
| 2026 | 23 | AACLE | 318 | .270/.349/.345 | 2 | 10 | 78 | — | .262/.321/.331 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCLE | 4 | .195/.249/.282 | 0 | 0 | 49 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 25 | MLBCLE | 52 | .199/.255/.295 | 1 | 1 | 55 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBCLE | 97 | .202/.259/.304 | 2 | 2 | 58 | -0.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Indians | — | 170 | 146 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 49 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 315 | 295 | 610 | 82 | 292 | 29 | 12 | 283 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 76 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 200 | 307 | 292 | 599 | 92 | 240 | 20 | 9 | 278 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 458 | 397 | 100 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 92 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 252 | 347 | 398 | 745 | 146 | 300 | 20 | 10 | 335 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 384 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 107 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 216 | 290 | 320 | 610 | 104 | 279 | 25 | 9 | 278 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 516 | 475 | 114 | 36 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 142 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 240 | 295 | 415 | 710 | 175 | 312 | 28 | 6 | 312 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 318 | 281 | 76 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 88 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 270 | 349 | 345 | 694 | 75 | 385 | 28 | 10 | 316 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Indians | — | 170 | 154 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 149 | 220 | 182 | 402 | 32 | 258 | 42 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 76 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 162 | 240 | 250 | 490 | 88 | 204 | 28 | 5 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 458 | 412 | 91 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 127 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 221 | 295 | 335 | 629 | 114 | 292 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 395 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 133 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 187 | 243 | 266 | 509 | 78 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 516 | 483 | 88 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 177 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 182 | 229 | 306 | 535 | 124 | 258 | 34 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 318 | 290 | 76 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 107 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 262 | 321 | 331 | 652 | 69 | 397 | 34 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Indians | — | 170 | 154 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 149 | 220 | 182 | 402 | 32 | 265 | 42 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Indians | — | 170 | 146 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 49 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 315 | 295 | 610 | 82 | 292 | 29 | 12 | 283 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 76 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 162 | 240 | 250 | 490 | 88 | 213 | 28 | 5 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 76 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 200 | 307 | 292 | 599 | 92 | 240 | 20 | 9 | 278 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 458 | 412 | 91 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 127 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 221 | 295 | 335 | 629 | 114 | 296 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 458 | 397 | 100 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 92 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 252 | 347 | 398 | 745 | 146 | 300 | 20 | 10 | 335 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 395 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 133 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 187 | 243 | 266 | 509 | 78 | 266 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 384 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 107 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 216 | 290 | 320 | 610 | 104 | 279 | 25 | 9 | 278 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 516 | 483 | 88 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 177 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 182 | 229 | 306 | 535 | 124 | 260 | 34 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 516 | 475 | 114 | 36 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 142 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 240 | 295 | 415 | 710 | 175 | 312 | 28 | 6 | 312 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 318 | 290 | 76 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 107 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 262 | 321 | 331 | 652 | 69 | 407 | 34 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 318 | 281 | 76 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 88 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 270 | 349 | 345 | 694 | 75 | 385 | 28 | 10 | 316 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Indians | — | 170 | 154 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 149 | 220 | 182 | 402 | 32 | 258 | 42 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 76 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 159 | 240 | 246 | 486 | 87 | 204 | 28 | 5 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 458 | 412 | 91 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 127 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 221 | 295 | 335 | 629 | 114 | 292 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 394 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 133 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 188 | 243 | 266 | 509 | 79 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 516 | 482 | 88 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 177 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 183 | 229 | 307 | 536 | 124 | 258 | 34 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 318 | 290 | 76 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 107 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 262 | 321 | 331 | 652 | 69 | 397 | 34 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 426 | 394 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 133 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 188 | 243 | 266 | 509 | 79 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 516 | 482 | 88 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 177 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 183 | 229 | 307 | 536 | 124 | 258 | 34 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 318 | 290 | 76 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 107 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 262 | 321 | 331 | 652 | 69 | 397 | 34 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 2% | 368 | 341 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 116 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 195 | 249 | 283 | 532 | 88 | 277 | 32 | 6 | 241 | 49 | -22 | +0 | +3 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 249 | 282 | 531 | 87 | 277 | 25 | 0 | 241 | 49 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 23% | 227 | 209 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 70 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 199 | 255 | 297 | 551 | 98 | 278 | 31 | 6 | 249 | 55 | -12 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 35% | 276 | 254 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 84 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 259 | 305 | 564 | 103 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -14 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 40% | 301 | 276 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 203 | 261 | 308 | 569 | 105 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -14 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 23% | 52 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 255 | 295 | 550 | 96 | 278 | 31 | 6 | 248 | 55 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 35% | 97 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 259 | 304 | 562 | 102 | 279 | 31 | 6 | 254 | 58 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 40% | 122 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 261 | 306 | 567 | 103 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 271 | 251 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 83 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 263 | 319 | 582 | 112 | 287 | 31 | 6 | 254 | 54 | -13 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 125 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 41 | 199 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 208 | 264 | 321 | 584 | 113 | 288 | 31 | 6 | 254 | 54 | -32 | +0 | +5 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2961 | 2719 | 546 | 95 | 19 | 42 | 186 | 943 | 32 | 100 | 35 | 201 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 95 | 288 | 32 | 6 | 248 | 54 | -52 | +1 | +8 | +4 | +22 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 120 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 207 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 201 | 260 | 295 | 555 | 94 | 288 | 32 | 6 | 248 | 54 | -34 | +1 | +5 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 318 PAwOBA .309 → .284 (−25)K% 27.7% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 34.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 2.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .309 → .284; ISO .075 → .067; BABIP .385 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Lake County Captains · 516 PAwOBA .306 → .233 (−73)K% 27.5% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.52% | ÷1.020 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.01% | ÷0.991 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.32% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 16.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.138 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.952 | ×0.850 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.011 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .306 → .233; ISO .175 → .127; BABIP .312 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lake County Captains · 426 PAwOBA .272 → .226 (−45)K% 25.1% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.12% | ÷1.023 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.45% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.58% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷0.978 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.190 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .272 → .226; ISO .104 → .077; BABIP .279 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 458 PAwOBA .329 → .279 (−50)K% 20.1% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.18% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.62% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 22.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.92% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 96, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .329 → .279; ISO .146 → .121; BABIP .300 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Guardians · 76 PAwOBA .275 → .210 (−65)K% 19.7% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.74% | ÷1.019 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 17.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.076 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .275 → .210; ISO .092 → .074; BABIP .240 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Indians · 170 PAwOBA .280 → .191 (−88)K% 28.8% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.82% | ÷0.978 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.050 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.77% | ÷0.948 | ×0.820 | ×1.042 | ×1.022 | 23.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.065 | ×0.720 | ×1.042 | ×1.022 | 2.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.720 | ×1.042 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.488 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.66% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 98, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .280 → .191; ISO .082 → .042; BABIP .292 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).