Carson Swilling — OGILVIE

Carson Swilling P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%21.6%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	15	69	21	3	1	0%	1.5	22.3%	5.6%	16.7%	2.2%	4.30	3.14	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	15	69	21	3	1	0%	1.5	22.3%	5.6%	16.7%	2.2%	4.30	3.14	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	15	69	21	3	1	0%	1.5	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	1.4%	4.30	1.74	—
2026	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	28	0	36	172	47	29	3	0%	1.3	20.2%	19.9%	0.3%	2.3%	5.55	5.16	—
2026	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	28	0	36	172	47	29	3	0%	1.3	20.2%	19.9%	0.3%	2.3%	5.55	5.16	—
2026	24	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	28	0	36	172	47	29	3	0%	1.3	27.3%	16.9%	10.5%	1.7%	5.55	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SD	16	0	17	72	16	12	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.1%	5.5%	2.9%	5.29	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	31	0	32	136	30	21	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	15.3%	6.7%	2.9%	5.18	5.17	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	13	0	14	59	13	9	2	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.3%	6.7%	2.9%	5.18	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	13	9	2	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.3%	6.7%	2.9%	5.18	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	131	29	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.3%	6.7%	2.9%	5.18	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		38	0	50	241	50	38	5	0%	1.3	20.8%	15.8%	5.0%	2.2%	5.19	4.58	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	958	199	151	22	0%	1.3	20.8%	15.8%	5.0%	2.2%	5.19	4.58	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Swilling (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	21.6%	16.1%	2.9%	—	5.17	22.0%	6.7%	32	-0.12	—	—	—
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	89
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	87
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	86
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	85
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	83
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	155	83
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	82
Alejandro Torres R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	20.5%	14.5%	2.1%	.221	6.08	17.6%	-0.9%	82	+1.70	4.38	123	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	82