Alex Santos II

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AAHOU	6	5	23	7.83	5.67	21.6%	12.6%	—	K 17.5% · BB 13.9% · FIP 6.44
2025	23	AAHOU	10	7	29	4.60	4.19	29.5%	17.8%	—	K 23.9% · BB 19.6% · FIP 5.02
2026	24	MIX2 levels	49	0	65	2.91	2.62	36.0%	14.0%	—	K 28.4% · BB 15.5% · FIP 3.51
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	29	0	30	4.69	4.69	26.3%	15.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	25	0	26	4.64	4.63	26.2%	14.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	35	0	37	4.63	4.64	26.0%	14.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsSean Isaac (age 25) · Eric Cerantola (age 24) · Cole McDonald (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%26.3%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	12	7	42	183	48	30	2	58%	3.5	19.4%	19.3%	0.1%	1.2%	3.46	4.57	—
2021	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	12	7	42	183	48	30	2	58%	3.5	26.2%	16.4%	9.8%	1.1%	3.46	3.58	—
2022	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	83	362	104	37	15	61%	3.6	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	5.7%	5.99	5.95	—
2022	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	83	362	104	37	15	61%	3.6	28.7%	10.2%	18.5%	4.1%	5.99	4.29	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	83	421	92	64	17	48%	3.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	4.1%	6.94	6.17	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	12	83	421	92	64	17	48%	3.3	21.9%	15.2%	6.7%	4.0%	6.94	5.86	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	5	23	111	24	14	5	83%	3.8	17.5%	13.9%	3.6%	5.6%	7.83	6.44	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	5	23	111	24	14	5	83%	3.8	17.5%	13.9%	3.6%	5.6%	7.83	6.44	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	5	23	111	24	14	5	83%	3.8	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	4.5%	7.83	5.67	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	10	7	29	129	38	23	3	70%	2.9	23.9%	19.6%	4.2%	2.6%	4.60	5.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	10	7	29	129	38	23	3	70%	2.9	23.9%	19.6%	4.2%	2.6%	4.60	5.02	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	10	7	29	129	38	23	3	70%	2.9	29.5%	17.8%	11.6%	2.3%	4.60	4.19	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	65	278	100	39	4	0%	1.3	28.4%	15.5%	12.9%	1.5%	2.91	3.51	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	65	278	100	39	4	0%	1.3	28.4%	15.5%	12.9%	1.5%	2.91	3.51	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	65	278	100	39	4	0%	1.3	36.0%	14.0%	21.9%	1.4%	2.91	2.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	29	0	30	127	33	19	3	0%	1.0	26.3%	15.3%	11.0%	2.7%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56	0	58	247	65	36	7	0%	1.0	26.2%	14.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.63	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55	0	58	243	63	35	7	0%	1.0	26.0%	14.3%	11.7%	2.8%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	25	0	26	110	29	16	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	14.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.63	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	35	0	37	156	41	22	4	0%	1.1	26.0%	14.3%	11.7%	2.8%	4.63	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	69	38	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	14.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.63	4.26	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	222	122	23	0%	1.1	26.1%	14.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.63	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		125	45	325	1484	312	236	54	36%	2.6	21.1%	15.9%	5.1%	3.6%	5.29	5.34	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	28	200	914	192	146	33	36%	2.6	21.1%	15.9%	5.1%	3.6%	5.29	5.34	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Santos II (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	26.3%	15.3%	2.7%	—	4.63	26.1%	11.6%	116	-0.06	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	82
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	78
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	78
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	77
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	77
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	76
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	75
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	75
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	75
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	74
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	73
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	73
Eric Orze R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	25.6%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.57	24.1%	14.8%	196	-0.41	3.33	354	73
Marcos Tineo R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	25	SW	4.57	22.2%	14.4%	2.8%	.320	7.13	7.8%	-24.1%	10	+2.56	3.52	273	73
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	73
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	26.2%	14.7%	1.07	4.65
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*