Chase Davis

CF Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 L/L 6'1" / 216 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #1015MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AASTL	494	.242/.360/.353	10	9	72	—	.215/.308/.298
2026	24	AAASTL	200	.229/.318/.377	6	4	63	—	.204/.273/.309
2026	24	AASTL	156	.231/.359/.446	8	9	78	—	.187/.276/.338
2027PROJ10% MLB	25	MLBSTL	32	.192/.278/.300	1	1	67	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	26	MLBSTL	126	.195/.281/.310	3	2	70	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	27	MLBSTL	170	.197/.282/.312	4	3	71	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV97

Chase%62

Speed58

BB%54

K%33

Z-Con%25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsDevin Foyle (age 25) · Justin Toerner (age 25) · Shayne Fontana (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .278 / .300

PA32

HR1

K%31

BB%9

BABIP266

ISO138

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	104	22	6	0	0	25	34	1	3	0	212	369	269	638	58	310	26	19	308	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	31	28	7	2	0	1	3	5	0	3	0	250	323	429	751	179	273	16	10	334	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	129	113	34	6	1	3	13	29	3	1	1	301	388	451	839	150	383	22	10	376	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	315	267	62	21	0	8	40	79	4	5	1	232	341	401	742	169	293	25	13	331	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	414	100	16	0	10	67	146	10	9	2	242	360	353	713	111	345	30	14	329	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	200	175	40	6	1	6	22	52	1	4	1	229	318	377	695	149	286	26	11	312	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	156	130	30	4	0	8	26	38	0	9	1	231	359	446	805	215	262	24	17	360	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	18	12	3	0	0	1	6	4	0	0	0	250	500	500	1.000	250	286	22	33	449	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	112	17	4	0	0	17	49	1	3	0	152	269	188	457	36	263	37	13	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	31	30	7	2	0	1	1	6	0	3	0	233	258	400	658	167	251	19	3	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	129	116	30	5	1	2	10	37	3	1	1	259	333	371	704	112	357	29	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	315	281	47	14	0	6	26	111	4	5	1	167	248	281	529	114	235	35	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	433	93	15	0	7	48	179	10	9	2	215	308	298	605	83	339	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	200	181	37	5	1	4	16	62	1	4	1	204	273	309	582	105	279	31	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	156	139	26	3	0	6	17	46	0	9	1	187	276	338	614	151	238	29	11	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	18	14	3	0	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	214	389	429	817	214	247	28	22	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	112	17	4	0	0	17	49	1	3	0	152	269	188	457	36	266	37	13	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	104	22	6	0	0	25	34	1	3	0	212	369	269	638	58	310	26	19	308	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	475	427	84	21	1	9	37	154	7	9	2	197	272	314	586	117	280	32	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	475	408	103	29	1	12	56	113	7	9	2	252	352	417	769	164	317	24	12	344	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	433	93	15	0	7	48	179	10	9	2	215	308	298	605	83	344	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	414	100	16	0	10	67	146	10	9	2	242	360	353	713	111	345	30	14	329	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	374	334	67	9	1	11	37	114	1	13	2	201	282	332	615	132	265	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	374	317	73	10	1	15	54	94	1	13	2	230	344	410	754	180	276	25	14	339	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	112	17	4	0	0	17	49	1	3	0	152	269	188	457	36	263	37	13	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	475	428	84	21	1	9	37	154	7	9	2	196	272	313	585	117	269	32	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	433	93	15	0	7	48	179	10	9	2	215	308	298	605	83	339	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	374	333	67	9	1	11	37	114	1	13	2	201	282	333	616	132	260	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	475	428	84	21	1	9	37	154	7	9	2	196	272	313	585	117	269	32	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	433	93	15	0	7	48	179	10	9	2	215	308	298	605	83	339	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	374	333	67	9	1	11	37	114	1	13	2	201	282	333	616	132	260	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	10%	380	336	65	10	1	9	37	120	4	8	1	192	278	305	583	113	265	32	10	267	67	-15	+1	+1	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	10%	32	29	6	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	192	278	300	579	109	266	31	9	265	67	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	35%	363	321	63	10	1	9	35	113	4	7	1	196	282	315	596	119	266	31	10	272	70	-13	+1	+1	+1	+8	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	44%	387	343	67	11	1	9	37	119	4	7	1	197	283	317	599	120	267	31	10	273	71	-13	+1	+1	+1	+8	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	35%	126	112	22	4	0	3	12	39	1	2	0	195	281	310	591	115	268	31	10	270	70	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	44%	170	150	29	5	0	4	16	52	2	3	1	197	282	312	594	115	269	31	9	271	71	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	296	262	51	9	0	7	28	91	3	5	1	195	280	309	589	115	265	31	9	271	67	-10	+1	+1	+1	+6	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	112	20	0	15	61	200	7	11	2	195	280	308	587	113	266	31	9	271	67	-23	+1	+2	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2544	2253	446	79	5	52	242	829	30	55	9	198	284	307	591	109	284	33	10	267	67	-39	+3	+3	+4	+23	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	113	20	1	13	62	212	8	14	2	196	284	302	586	106	282	33	10	267	67	-24	+2	+2	+2	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	329	8	6	197	279	316	-2	+1	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	16	13	-3.4	+2.3	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Davis (OGILVIE)	25	30→32	45→50	50	60	190/276/302	112	265	7	7	32%	10%	67	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	41→39	46→45	48→45	44	207/273/338	131	273	14	10	29%	7%	72	-0.7	214/284/324	110	273	10	7	24%	8%	74	-0.6	194/281/260	67	243	5	0	21%	9%	55	-0.7
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA	25	40	43→40	45→50	44	196/280/303	107	288	12	8	34%	9%	68	-1.0	187/282/293	106	278	11	11	34%	10%	67	-1.1	158/269/254	96	234	10	12	34%	11%	53	-1.0
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	195/273/300	105	283	8	8	32%	9%	63	-1.3	215/297/319	104	298	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	219/303/314	95	294	10	19	27%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	39	46→45	46→40	39	199/262/323	124	288	15	4	35%	7%	65	-1.2	209/289/320	111	287	12	5	29%	9%	75	-0.5	198/286/289	91	268	9	2	27%	9%	67	-0.5
✕Cam Gibson 2019 · AA	25	40→41	43→45	54→55	43	199/264/310	111	274	10	17	30%	7%	62	-1.4	205/268/307	102	282	8	19	28%	7%	63	-1.3	191/255/287	97	258	7	25	27%	7%	51	-1.7
✕Mason Martin 2024 · AAA	25	35→36	50→55	46→45	38	182/255/333	151	294	18	9	42%	8%	65	-1.2	198/276/341	143	354	17	10	45%	8%	75	-0.5	124/217/264	141	282	18	7	58%	8%	36	-0.6
✕Chad Spanberger 2021 · AA	25	41→42	48→55	47→45	40	214/264/356	143	277	17	8	29%	6%	74	-0.6	196/253/328	132	305	15	7	39%	6%	63	-1.4	157/217/287	130	243	17	3	42%	6%	38	-1.7
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	41→40	46→50	53→55	45	203/286/334	131	286	13	16	32%	8%	77	-0.3	201/278/310	109	271	10	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	161/249/251	90	216	7	20	27%	8%	42	-1.3
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→39	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/296	112	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	201/262/336	135	294	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/259/326	130	285	15	24	35%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Robert Neustrom 2022 · AAA	25	45	45	50	44	223/281/355	132	286	12	10	26%	7%	79	-0.2	217/272/352	135	260	15	14	22%	6%	75	-0.5	199/250/329	130	224	16	17	20%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Kaden Polcovich 2024 · AA	25	39→41	45	54→55	47	198/281/321	123	266	12	16	29%	9%	72	-0.7	205/287/313	108	289	9	19	30%	8%	72	-0.7	185/278/277	92	268	6	27	30%	9%	59	-0.8
✕Andy Yerzy 2023 · AA	25	35	49→50	49→40	45	189/273/335	146	257	18	5	33%	9%	73	-0.6	198/270/322	124	274	15	7	31%	8%	68	-1.0	143/211/218	74	223	10	2	39%	7%	19	-1.3
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA	24	39→46	44→45	53→55	46	188/273/305	116	293	11	14	37%	10%	65	-1.2	220/303/367	147	343	14	14	36%	10%	91	+0.6	203/286/331	129	310	11	20	35%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	34→30	44→45	49→50	45	182/254/292	110	240	14	18	30%	8%	55	-1.9	210/285/321	111	280	12	12	27%	9%	73	-0.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Cole Roederer 2024 · AAA	24	43→33	46→45	50	42	212/276/337	125	302	14	12	33%	7%	73	-0.6	192/270/301	109	289	10	11	34%	9%	63	-1.3	145/240/234	89	226	7	9	36%	10%	36	-2.1
✕Brian O'Grady 2018 · AA	26	36→38	43→60	54→50	47	181/264/292	112	256	10	14	32%	10%	59	-1.6	217/278/393	176	288	21	14	31%	7%	87	+0.4	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Preston Beck 2016 · AA	25	42	42→45	49→45	48	206/272/311	106	256	9	8	23%	8%	65	-1.2	215/267/318	103	269	8	6	22%	6%	65	-1.2	213/262/313	100	267	8	3	23%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	196/271/312	116	260	11	11	28%	8%	66	-1.1	211/300/351	140	290	16	6	31%	9%	86	+0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Morgan McCullough 2024 · AAA	26	42	44→45	49→50	44	204/285/323	119	291	11	12	32%	8%	74	-0.5	208/286/330	122	294	11	15	31%	9%	76	-0.4	175/268/298	123	241	12	20	30%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Will Robertson 2024 · AA	26	37→41	50	45	39	198/255/352	154	274	17	7	34%	6%	70	-0.9	201/266/344	143	287	16	5	34%	7%	72	-0.7	195/264/336	141	278	16	2	34%	7%	67	-0.8

Chase Davis

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps