Trey Dombroski
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 229 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.0%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 26 | 15 | 119 | 491 | 148 | 35 | 15 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 3.71 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 18 | 98 | 456 | 112 | 32 | 21 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.90 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 28 | 19 | 121 | 507 | 122 | 55 | 7 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 3.95 | 3.76 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 3 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 97 | 46 | 14 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 115 | 482 | 100 | 50 | 14 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 104 | 48 | 14 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 108 | 49 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 108 | 48 | 15 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 105 | 47 | 15 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 101 | 46 | 15 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 96 | 45 | 15 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 91 | 44 | 14 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 85 | 43 | 14 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 80 | 42 | 14 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 74 | 40 | 13 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 68 | 38 | 13 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 53 | 344 | 1477 | 302 | 140 | 53 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.55 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 31 | 200 | 860 | 176 | 81 | 31 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trey Dombroski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.54 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 353 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 88 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 86 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 85 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 85 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 85 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 85 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 84 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 84 |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 84 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 83 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 83 |
| Jackson Kent L 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 83 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 83 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 82 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 82 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .338 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.40 | 3.76 | 674 | 82 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 82 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 82 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 82 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.86 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 17 | +1.66 | 3.32 | 248 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $7M | $30M | +$23M | ||