Trey Dombroski
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 229 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 129
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
K%19.5%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 26 | 15 | 119 | 491 | 148 | 35 | 15 | 58% | 4.6 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 4.0% | 3.71 | 4.49 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 26 | 15 | 119 | 491 | 148 | 35 | 15 | 58% | 4.6 | 30.1% | 7.1% | 23.0% | 3.1% | 3.71 | 3.13 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 98 | 456 | 112 | 32 | 21 | 72% | 3.9 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 5.4% | 5.90 | 5.47 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 98 | 456 | 112 | 32 | 21 | 72% | 3.9 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 17.5% | 4.6% | 5.90 | 4.58 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 19 | 121 | 507 | 122 | 55 | 7 | 68% | 4.3 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 3.95 | 3.75 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 19 | 121 | 507 | 122 | 55 | 7 | 68% | 4.3 | 24.1% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 1.4% | 3.95 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 16 | 13 | 66 | 283 | 61 | 35 | 8 | 81% | 4.1 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 54 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 131 | 559 | 115 | 66 | 16 | — | — | 20.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.5% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 64 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 75 | 316 | 64 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 70 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.40 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 93 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 65 | 403 | 1737 | 348 | 175 | 62 | 68% | 4.2 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.44 | 4.65 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 32 | 200 | 862 | 173 | 87 | 31 | 68% | 4.2 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.44 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trey Dombroski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.78 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 151 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 83 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 82 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 81 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 81 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 79 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 78 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 78 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 78 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 77 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.27 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 345 | +0.55 | 3.72 | 463 | 77 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 77 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 77 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.54 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | 4.08 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 45 | -0.46 | 3.65 | 328 | 76 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2027 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 76 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.67 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 1.6% | .355 | 5.01 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 93 | +1.34 | 3.10 | 381 | 76 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 76 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 76 |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 76 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | .322 | 5.74 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.28 | 2.22 | 286 | 76 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 76 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 1.15 | 4.80 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |