Trey Dombroski — OGILVIE

Trey Dombroski P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 229 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%19.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	15	119	491	148	35	15	58%	4.6	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	4.0%	3.71	4.48	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	15	119	491	148	35	15	58%	4.6	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	4.0%	3.71	4.48	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	15	119	491	148	35	15	58%	4.6	30.1%	7.1%	23.0%	3.1%	3.71	3.13	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	98	456	112	32	21	72%	3.9	19.2%	7.9%	11.2%	5.5%	5.90	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	98	456	112	32	21	72%	3.9	19.2%	7.9%	11.2%	5.5%	5.90	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	98	456	112	32	21	72%	3.9	24.6%	7.0%	17.5%	4.6%	5.90	4.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	121	507	122	55	7	68%	4.3	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	1.7%	3.95	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	121	507	122	55	7	68%	4.3	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	1.7%	3.95	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	19	121	507	122	55	7	68%	4.3	24.1%	10.8%	13.2%	1.4%	3.95	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	20	92	405	88	47	15	87%	4.0	17.6%	12.8%	4.8%	4.4%	4.70	5.67	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	20	92	405	88	47	15	87%	4.0	17.6%	12.8%	4.8%	4.4%	4.70	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	HOU	23	20	92	405	88	47	15	87%	4.0	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	3.7%	4.70	4.77	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	6	27	5	3	1	100%	6.4	19.5%	10.8%	8.7%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	98	432	93	50	16	—	—	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.7%	4.70	5.62	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	109	459	91	48	14	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	107	452	91	47	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.74	4.75	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	104	438	88	45	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.81	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	99	418	83	44	14	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.86	4.93	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	93	394	77	42	14	100%	5.8	19.5%	10.8%	8.7%	3.5%	5.01	5.10	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	40	21	6	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.72	4.71	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	58	30	8	100%	6.2	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	2.9%	4.69	4.70	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	78	329	66	34	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	81	342	68	36	11	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.2%	4.81	4.88	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	80	338	66	36	11	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.8%	8.7%	3.4%	4.96	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	355	1498	298	157	47	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.45	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	88	26	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		102	72	429	1859	370	188	71	71%	4.2	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.8%	4.49	4.81	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	34	200	866	172	87	33	71%	4.2	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.8%	4.49	4.81	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Dombroski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	19.5%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.77	20.0%	9.7%	319	-0.06	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	87
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	81
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	81
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	79
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	79
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	78
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	77
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	76
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	76
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	98	19.8%	10.5%	1.21	4.82
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58