Evan Gray
P
San Jose Giants
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.9%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3030
CMD4040
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 37 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 59 | 28 | 1 | 19.3% | 14.6% | 0.4% | 4.53 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 22.3% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 36 | 19 | 5 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 21.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 44 | 33 | 1 | 19.3% | 14.6% | 0.4% | 4.53 | 3.54 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 0 | 200 | 948 | 185 | 138 | 4 | 19.3% | 14.6% | 0.4% | 4.53 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.62 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 120 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .305 | 7.30 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.32 | 3.48 | 153 | 90 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 89 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 89 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 85 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 85 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 134 | 85 |
| Trey Benton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 23.8% | 13.9% | 3.0% | .366 | 2.92 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 31 | -1.61 | 2.92 | 139 | 85 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 84 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 84 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 84 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 83 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.20 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .355 | 3.63 | 24.2% | 13.8% | 47 | -0.57 | 3.63 | 186 | 83 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 83 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 83 |
| Armando Ruiz R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.22 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 113 | 83 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.86 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.29 | 2.95 | 246 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.