Evan Gray — OGILVIE

Evan Gray P San Jose Giants

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%19.4%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	37	0	48	226	59	28	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	14.6%	4.7%	0.4%	4.53	3.55	—
2025	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	37	0	48	226	59	28	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	14.6%	4.7%	0.4%	4.53	3.55	—
2025	24	A RAW	San Jose Giants	37	0	48	226	59	28	1	0%	1.3	26.1%	12.4%	13.7%	0.4%	4.53	2.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A MLE	San Jose Giants	28	0	50	232	49	28	3	0%	1.8	15.6%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	5.36	4.51	—
YTD	25	A MLE	San Jose Giants	28	0	50	232	49	28	3	0%	1.8	15.6%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	5.36	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	SF	28	0	50	232	49	28	3	0%	1.8	21.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.3%	5.36	3.55	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	2.7%	5.31	5.31	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	55	253	53	31	4	—	—	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.36	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	57	0	60	251	50	38	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	15.0%	5.0%	2.7%	5.20	5.19	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	56	0	59	247	50	36	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.15	5.17	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	21	16	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	15.0%	5.0%	2.7%	5.20	5.19	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	35	0	37	156	32	23	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	14.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.15	5.17	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	53	39	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.8%	5.4%	2.8%	5.17	4.80	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	125	23	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.8%	5.4%	2.8%	5.17	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		65	0	98	458	80	66	5	0%	1.5	17.4%	14.4%	3.0%	1.1%	4.96	4.04	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	935	163	135	10	0%	1.5	17.4%	14.4%	3.0%	1.1%	4.96	4.04	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	19.4%	15.7%	2.7%	—	5.18	20.1%	5.3%	118	-0.13	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	92
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	90
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	89
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	89
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	88
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	87
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	87
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	86
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	86
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	86
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	86
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	86
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.9%	15.1%	1.06	5.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48