Evan Gray
P
San Jose Giants
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 117
ERA5.17
FIP5.17
K%19.4%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%4.8%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 37 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 59 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.3% | 14.6% | 4.7% | 0.3% | 4.53 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 37 | 0 | 48 | 226 | 59 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 0.4% | 4.53 | 2.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | San Jose Giants | 16 | 0 | 26 | 115 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 5.26 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 49 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 14.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | 14.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.17 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 85 | 366 | 78 | 47 | 9 | — | — | 21.2% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 5.20 | 4.84 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 50 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 50 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 49 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 37 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 105 | 443 | 90 | 61 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.69 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 116 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 73 | 341 | 65 | 45 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 4.79 | 3.69 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 0 | 200 | 930 | 178 | 122 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 4.79 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 19.4% | 14.6% | 2.7% | — | 5.07 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 175 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 94 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 93 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 91 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 90 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.33 | 22.0% | 5.9% | 87 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 217 | 89 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 89 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 88 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 88 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.55 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 79 | +0.16 | 3.96 | 242 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 87 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 87 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 87 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 87 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 87 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Carlos Ramirez R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.33 | 18.9% | 14.5% | 1.8% | .291 | 3.11 | 23.5% | 14.5% | 103 | -1.22 | 2.62 | 177 | 86 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | .256 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.43 | 3.94 | 189 | 86 |
| LJ McDonough R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .340 | 5.41 | 24.3% | 3.8% | 29 | +1.09 | 4.32 | 114 | 86 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.57 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 38 | -0.98 | 2.69 | 154 | 86 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 1.08 | 5.08 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |