Adrian Rodriguez

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 192 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+TEX	35	42	6.64	5.29	34.9%	25.5%	—	K 26.9% · BB 29.3% · FIP 6.46
2025	24	MIX3 levels	30	41	3.76	2.24	39.2%	17.0%	—	K 33.7% · BB 20.7% · FIP 2.87
2026	25	MIX2 levels	17	18	9.00	5.77	23.3%	18.9%	—	K 16.7% · BB 21.7% · FIP 7.41
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	10	11	5.63	5.63	23.9%	19.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBTEX	12	13	5.53	5.54	23.9%	18.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsZane Russell (age 24) · Jose De La Torre (age 27) · Mitchell Stumpo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%23.9%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	14	0	20	103	35	28	2	0%	1.4	23.1%	34.0%	-10.9%	2.7%	7.78	6.92	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	14	0	20	103	35	28	2	0%	1.4	34.0%	27.2%	6.8%	1.9%	7.78	5.13	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	29	115	43	13	1	0%	1.5	27.8%	13.3%	14.6%	0.0%	3.14	2.43	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	29	115	43	13	1	0%	1.5	37.4%	11.3%	26.1%	0.9%	3.14	1.91	—
2023	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	30	1	34	153	33	32	2	3%	1.1	16.0%	24.7%	-8.7%	1.6%	5.08	5.74	—
2023	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	30	1	34	153	33	32	2	3%	1.1	21.6%	20.9%	0.7%	1.3%	5.08	4.76	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	35	0	42	212	74	54	6	0%	1.2	26.9%	29.3%	-2.4%	3.5%	6.64	6.46	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	35	0	42	212	74	54	6	0%	1.2	26.9%	29.3%	-2.4%	3.5%	6.64	6.46	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	35	0	42	212	74	54	6	0%	1.2	34.9%	25.5%	9.4%	2.8%	6.64	5.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	41	176	69	30	1	0%	1.4	33.7%	20.7%	13.1%	0.0%	3.76	2.87	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	41	176	69	30	1	0%	1.4	33.7%	20.7%	13.1%	0.0%	3.76	2.87	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	41	176	69	30	1	0%	1.4	39.2%	17.0%	22.2%	0.6%	3.76	2.24	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	18	90	21	17	3	0%	1.1	16.7%	21.7%	-4.9%	5.4%	9.00	7.41	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	18	90	21	17	3	0%	1.1	16.7%	21.7%	-4.9%	5.4%	9.00	7.41	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	18	90	21	17	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	3.3%	9.00	5.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	10	0	11	46	11	9	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	19.8%	4.1%	3.0%	5.63	5.63	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	34	0	36	152	36	29	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	18.8%	5.1%	3.1%	5.53	5.54	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	12	0	13	55	13	10	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	18.8%	5.1%	3.1%	5.53	5.54	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	13	11	2	0%	1.0	23.9%	18.8%	5.1%	3.1%	5.53	5.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	166	30	0%	1.1	23.9%	18.8%	5.1%	3.1%	5.53	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		145	1	183	849	212	206	17	1%	1.3	24.9%	24.3%	0.7%	2.1%	5.52	5.20	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	1	200	930	232	226	19	1%	1.3	24.9%	24.3%	0.7%	2.1%	5.52	5.20	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	23.9%	19.8%	3.0%	—	5.54	23.9%	5.0%	36	-0.09	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	86
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	83
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	82
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	82
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	80
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	80
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	80
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	80
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	80
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	79
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	79
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	78
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	78
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	78
Conor Larkin R 2024 · 4.82 FIP	25	SU	4.82	24.4%	16.7%	3.0%	.233	4.66	17.9%	5.2%	90	-0.16	2.40	179	78
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	77
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	77
Todd Wellemeyer R 2005 · 5.70 FIP	26	SU	5.70	21.9%	14.4%	4.8%	.291	4.47	16.5%	6.8%	349	-1.23	3.35	615	77
Austin Ross R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	26	SU	4.99	22.4%	16.8%	3.0%	.295	5.74	18.0%	5.8%	15	+0.75	4.41	121	77
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	76