Aaron Antonini — OGILVIE

Aaron AntoniniC Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 78 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .329

PA78

HR2

K%31

BB%8

BABIP273

ISO129

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	227	190	25	4	0	5	21	84	15	0	0	132	270	232	501	100	196	37	9	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	227	181	32	6	0	6	30	62	15	0	0	177	341	309	650	133	228	27	13	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	255	224	41	5	0	5	17	56	8	3	1	183	265	272	537	89	214	22	7	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	255	217	46	5	0	7	24	46	8	3	1	212	313	332	645	120	231	18	9	292	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	163	140	28	5	1	5	10	60	10	3	1	200	300	357	657	157	299	37	6	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	163	136	33	6	1	6	14	46	10	3	1	243	356	434	790	191	314	28	9	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AA	DET	—	117	103	18	4	1	3	10	46	3	2	1	175	267	320	588	146	273	39	9	250	50	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
YTD	28	AA	DET	—	117	99	20	5	1	3	14	36	3	2	1	202	319	364	683	162	279	31	12	309	95	-1	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.5
ROS	28	AA	DET	2%	78	70	14	3	0	2	6	24	2	1	0	200	282	329	611	129	279	31	8	279	72	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	28	MLB	DET	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						274	50	0	260	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AA	DET	—	119	105	18	4	1	3	10	47	3	2	1	171	263	314	577	143	268	39	8	250	50	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
TOT	28	AA	DET	—	195	173	32	7	1	5	16	70	5	3	1	185	273	324	597	139	273	36	8	262	59	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	DET	28%	246	220	45	9	1	6	19	74	5	4	1	205	283	336	619	132	279	30	8	280	72	-8	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.3
2028	30	MLB	DET	43%	292	263	55	11	2	7	22	87	5	4	1	209	283	346	629	137	279	30	8	280	73	-9	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.3
2029	31	MLB	DET	52%	279	250	51	10	1	6	22	83	5	4	1	204	282	324	606	120	277	30	8	278	71	-9	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.1
2027	29	MLB	DET	28%	69	63	12	2	0	2	5	21	1	1	0	190	261	317	578	127	274	30	7	262	58	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	30	MLB	DET	43%	126	113	24	5	1	3	10	38	2	2	1	212	288	354	642	142	274	30	8	263	59	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	31	MLB	DET	52%	145	131	26	5	1	3	11	43	2	2	1	198	271	321	591	122	273	30	8	261	58	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	342	309	62	12	2	8	26	103	5	5	2	201	274	330	604	129	270	30	8	262	59	-16	+0	-3	+6	+10	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	118	23	4	15	49	196	10	10	4	201	274	330	604	129	271	30	8	262	59	-30	+0	-5	+12	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	1540	1357	259	47	5	36	117	468	50	19	5	191	280	312	592	122	258	30	8	265	61	-67	+2	-6	+28	+44	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	109	20	2	15	49	198	21	8	2	190	278	311	589	120	258	30	8	265	61	-28	+1	-3	+12	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	131	106	20	3	0	4	18	36	7	0	0	189	344	330	674	142	242	27	14	318	101	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	96	75	12	3	0	2	12	26	8	0	0	160	337	280	617	120	208	27	12	298	86	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2022	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	74	64	12	2	0	1	7	12	3	0	0	188	297	266	563	78	216	16	9	269	64	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	24	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	181	153	34	3	0	6	17	34	5	3	1	222	320	359	679	137	237	19	9	301	89	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2023	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	46	34	7	1	1	1	6	13	5	1	0	206	400	382	782	176	286	28	13	358	132	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	117	102	26	5	0	5	8	33	5	2	1	255	339	451	790	196	323	28	7	347	123	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	344	8	5	208	280	339	+6	+4	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	15	10	208	280	339	+11.9	+7.7	0.9	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Antonini (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	185/273/324	139	273	5	3	36%	8%	59	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	47→48	47→50	57→50	46	230/294/372	142	295	13	11	26%	8%	86	+0.8	221/302/378	157	287	19	8	28%	10%	92	+1.2	209/296/361	152	272	19	4	29%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Zack Collins 2023 · MLB	28	36→43	49→50	46→40	50	190/284/340	150	262	16	6	32%	11%	75	-0.0	214/291/357	143	326	16	7	36%	10%	82	+0.5	207/287/340	133	326	15	4	38%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Johnny Monell 2015 · AAA	29	43→44	47→50	48→45	46	215/280/352	136	280	14	8	28%	8%	76	+0.0	230/281/344	114	283	12	7	23%	6%	73	-0.1	232/283/341	109	291	11	4	23%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA	28	45→50	47→45	47→50	42	223/287/360	138	292	14	8	28%	6%	81	+0.4	238/310/381	143	299	14	9	24%	8%	95	+1.4	242/323/385	143	300	14	7	22%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	47	229/290/350	121	273	12	17	21%	7%	79	+0.3	228/308/352	124	288	13	12	24%	10%	87	+0.8	220/310/331	111	279	11	10	23%	11%	81	+0.1
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	41	48→45	46→30	43	210/274/348	137	279	17	4	30%	8%	72	-0.2	197/260/308	111	344	12	5	43%	7%	56	-1.3	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2019 · AAA	28	48	43→45	47→50	43	236/289/345	109	300	11	10	25%	6%	76	+0.1	236/300/346	110	323	12	9	28%	8%	82	+0.5	237/305/328	92	327	11	5	29%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Peter Maris 2021 · AAA	27	42→48	47→50	50	44	215/276/351	136	277	14	9	27%	7%	73	-0.1	233/285/386	153	310	18	9	29%	7%	86	+0.8	237/285/421	183	304	24	5	30%	6%	93	+0.4
✕César Salazar 2023 · AAA	27	40	50→45	47→45	40	213/272/360	147	258	19	9	26%	5%	76	+0.0	209/299/331	122	250	13	7	21%	8%	79	+0.3	202/308/314	111	241	11	6	20%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	43→53	47→50	48→55	41	219/272/353	134	292	14	16	30%	6%	72	-0.2	214/278/359	145	296	16	14	31%	8%	76	+0.1	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	41	51→50	49→50	42	220/270/377	157	256	20	12	24%	5%	79	+0.3	219/286/373	154	263	20	9	24%	7%	84	+0.6	177/272/313	136	213	19	8	27%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Brett Hayes 2012 · MLB	28	43	48→45	48→40	43	220/269/365	145	274	16	4	26%	6%	74	-0.1	217/256/369	152	290	18	6	31%	5%	70	-0.3	187/219/319	133	241	16	2	30%	3%	36	-1.1
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2022 · AAA	28	42	50→55	43→45	42	218/275/381	163	272	17	7	26%	6%	81	+0.4	200/264/356	156	259	17	8	29%	7%	70	-0.3	226/290/351	125	289	12	8	25%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Jason Smith 2005 · MLB	28	46→35	51→55	49→50	43	234/281/401	167	279	17	9	23%	6%	88	+0.9	222/264/375	153	293	16	12	29%	5%	74	-0.1	214/252/367	153	289	17	12	32%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	41→51	48→55	53→55	42	207/270/353	146	286	14	12	32%	7%	72	-0.2	199/262/324	125	297	13	22	35%	8%	60	-1.0	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Tzu-Wei Lin 2022 · MLB	28	45→48	41→45	52→50	42	216/267/311	95	295	8	15	29%	6%	58	-1.2	207/272/324	117	299	12	15	33%	8%	65	-0.7	141/222/228	88	206	11	18	36%	9%	17	-0.9