Aaron Antonini — OGILVIE

Aaron AntoniniC Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 16 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .250 / .267

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP271

ISO67

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	131	106	20	3	0	4	18	36	7	0	0	189	344	330	674	142	242	27	14	318	101	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	96	75	12	3	0	2	12	26	8	0	0	160	337	280	617	120	208	27	12	298	88	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	74	64	12	2	0	1	7	12	3	0	0	188	297	266	563	78	216	16	9	269	68	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	24	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	181	153	34	3	0	6	17	34	5	3	1	222	320	359	679	137	237	19	9	301	90	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2023	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	46	34	7	1	1	1	6	13	5	1	0	206	400	382	782	176	286	28	13	358	128	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	117	102	26	5	0	5	8	33	5	2	1	255	339	451	790	196	323	28	7	347	121	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	131	112	16	2	0	3	12	45	7	0	0	143	267	241	508	98	207	34	9	240	49	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2021	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	96	78	9	2	0	1	9	35	8	0	0	115	274	179	453	64	178	36	9	227	40	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2022	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	74	66	11	2	0	1	5	14	3	0	0	167	257	242	499	76	200	19	7	220	35	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	181	158	31	3	0	5	12	43	5	3	1	196	274	310	584	114	208	24	7	248	54	-10	+0	—	—	+4	-0.6
2023	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	46	36	7	1	1	1	4	16	5	1	0	194	356	361	717	167	246	35	9	296	86	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	117	105	21	4	0	3	5	41	5	2	1	200	270	324	593	124	284	35	4	270	69	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2021	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	227	190	27	5	0	5	21	80	15	0	0	142	279	247	526	105	208	35	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	227	181	32	6	0	6	30	62	15	0	0	177	341	309	650	133	228	27	13	309	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	255	224	40	4	0	5	17	57	8	3	1	179	261	263	524	85	210	22	7	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	255	217	46	5	0	7	24	46	8	3	1	212	313	332	645	120	231	18	9	292	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	163	140	28	5	1	4	10	57	10	3	1	200	300	336	636	136	296	35	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	163	136	33	6	1	6	14	46	10	3	1	243	356	434	790	191	314	28	9	350	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	227	189	27	5	0	5	21	80	15	0	0	143	279	249	527	106	195	35	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	255	228	40	4	0	5	17	57	8	3	1	175	261	259	520	83	206	22	7	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	163	142	28	5	1	4	10	57	10	3	1	197	300	331	631	134	273	35	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	163	142	28	5	1	4	10	57	10	3	1	197	300	331	631	134	273	35	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	DET	—	117	103	17	4	1	2	10	44	3	2	1	165	259	282	540	117	259	38	9	251	56	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA RAW	DET	—	117	99	20	5	1	3	14	36	3	2	1	202	319	364	683	162	279	31	12	309	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AA MLE	DET	2%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	200	250	267	517	67	276	31	6	276	73	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	28	AA MLE	DET	—	133	118	20	5	1	2	11	49	3	2	1	169	258	280	537	110	265	37	8	254	58	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	28%	246	220	46	9	1	6	19	73	5	4	1	209	287	341	628	132	278	30	8	280	76	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	43%	292	262	55	11	2	7	23	86	5	4	1	210	286	347	634	137	278	29	8	281	76	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	28%	69	63	12	2	0	2	5	20	1	1	0	190	261	317	578	127	274	29	7	262	76	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	43%	126	113	24	5	1	3	10	37	2	2	1	212	288	354	642	142	273	29	8	263	76	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	195	176	36	7	1	5	15	57	3	3	1	205	278	341	619	136	270	29	8	263	64	-6	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	120	23	3	17	50	190	10	10	3	204	278	341	619	136	269	29	8	263	64	-19	+1	-4	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1199	1051	199	35	4	27	91	358	43	14	4	189	281	307	588	118	254	30	8	263	64	-16	+1	-3	+10	+12	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	108	19	2	15	49	194	23	8	2	189	280	309	589	119	254	30	8	263	64	-19	+1	-4	+12	+14	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Antonini (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	201/278/328	126	276	4	3	30%	8%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	46→49	46→50	56→50	46	229/294/368	139	294	13	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	219/303/375	156	285	18	8	28%	10%	92	+0.7	206/296/357	150	270	19	4	29%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Zack Collins 2023 · MLB	28	37→42	48→50	46→40	51	191/287/338	147	263	16	6	32%	11%	78	-0.3	209/288/344	135	322	14	7	36%	10%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	316	13	4	38%	10%	69	-0.8
✕Johnny Monell 2015 · AAA	29	43→44	47→50	48→45	45	217/280/354	136	279	14	8	27%	8%	78	-0.3	234/285/355	121	285	13	7	22%	6%	80	-0.1	234/285/350	116	290	12	4	23%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Matt Thaiss 2023 · MLB	28	46→50	48→50	52→45	49	232/305/379	147	290	16	8	25%	9%	93	+0.8	220/316/340	120	293	13	8	27%	11%	90	+0.6	205/321/302	97	279	10	5	27%	13%	81	-0.0
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	48	225/289/345	119	270	11	17	21%	7%	80	-0.2	227/309/347	120	288	12	12	24%	10%	88	+0.4	219/308/324	105	279	10	10	23%	11%	81	-0.0
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA	28	45→47	44→45	47→50	42	220/285/343	123	290	11	8	27%	6%	78	-0.3	229/300/362	133	293	12	9	25%	8%	88	+0.4	227/305/358	130	286	11	7	23%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→49	48→50	48→45	49	234/302/373	139	276	17	6	22%	8%	91	+0.7	239/300/372	133	305	15	6	25%	8%	90	+0.6	230/288/352	123	295	14	6	26%	7%	78	-0.1
✕César Salazar 2023 · AAA	27	41	49→45	47→45	41	215/277/357	142	256	18	9	24%	5%	79	-0.2	207/299/322	115	248	12	7	21%	8%	80	-0.2	203/308/311	108	241	12	6	20%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	42→49	45	53→55	49	212/291/333	122	280	14	16	28%	10%	78	-0.3	220/305/328	108	302	10	17	28%	10%	82	-0.0	220/312/315	96	303	8	19	28%	11%	79	-0.1
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	45→47	49→50	52→50	42	225/290/384	159	305	15	14	30%	7%	89	+0.5	217/278/360	143	326	15	9	36%	7%	80	-0.2	190/245/303	113	313	13	5	41%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	40	47→45	46→30	43	206/271/335	129	277	15	4	31%	8%	71	-0.8	196/261/305	109	342	12	5	43%	7%	61	-1.5	178/245/263	85	331	9	1	46%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Brett Sullivan 2022 · AAA	28	42→52	44→50	48→55	47	210/263/329	119	239	12	14	18%	6%	66	-1.1	220/275/342	122	252	11	8	17%	6%	74	-0.6	219/276/348	129	247	12	6	17%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Chad De La Guerra 2021 · AAA	28	45→49	49→50	46→45	40	225/278/371	146	305	17	7	31%	6%	82	-0.0	208/278/326	118	319	10	14	35%	8%	72	-0.7	156/241/252	95	258	5	17	38%	9%	38	-0.9
✕Peter Maris 2021 · AAA	27	43→50	45	50	44	213/275/342	128	274	12	9	26%	7%	74	-0.6	228/280/367	139	310	15	9	30%	6%	81	-0.1	229/275/383	154	304	20	5	31%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	47→50	44→45	45	217/275/356	139	271	14	5	25%	7%	78	-0.3	211/259/316	105	280	9	6	27%	6%	61	-1.5	196/239/281	85	265	6	4	27%	5%	44	-1.1
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	42	51→50	49→50	43	224/276/381	158	258	20	12	23%	5%	84	+0.1	217/286/363	146	261	18	9	24%	7%	84	+0.1	171/269/296	124	208	17	8	26%	10%	60	-0.6
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	41→44	52→55	49→40	45	219/284/381	161	270	21	6	27%	7%	86	+0.3	213/274/381	168	272	21	6	29%	7%	83	+0.1	204/265/375	171	257	22	4	30%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Jason Smith 2005 · MLB	28	46→35	51→55	49→50	43	234/281/401	167	279	17	9	23%	6%	89	+0.5	221/263/370	149	293	16	12	29%	5%	76	-0.4	212/251/362	149	288	16	12	32%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Pete Laforest 2005 · MLB	27	46	46→60	49→40	44	227/288/356	129	285	13	9	25%	7%	82	-0.0	213/270/397	184	300	25	5	36%	7%	85	+0.2	194/261/392	199	250	30	3	36%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	44→50	46→45	50	188/283/306	118	262	12	9	31%	11%	70	-0.8	187/282/307	120	260	13	10	31%	11%	70	-0.9	168/270/286	118	229	14	8	31%	11%	59	-1.0