Aaron Antonini
C Erie SeaWolves| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AA/A+STL | 255 | .212/.313/.332 | 7 | 3 | 49 | — | .183/.265/.273 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/AASTL | 163 | .243/.356/.434 | 6 | 3 | 74 | — | .207/.306/.364 |
| 2026 | 28 | AADET | 117 | .202/.319/.364 | 3 | 2 | 53 | — | .163/.250/.279 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBDET | 2 | .201/.271/.320 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBDET | 34 | .200/.269/.317 | 1 | 0 | 68 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 131 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 344 | 330 | 674 | 142 | 242 | 27 | 14 | 318 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 96 | 75 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 337 | 280 | 617 | 120 | 208 | 27 | 12 | 298 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 74 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 297 | 266 | 563 | 78 | 216 | 16 | 9 | 269 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 181 | 153 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 320 | 359 | 679 | 137 | 237 | 19 | 9 | 301 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 46 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 400 | 382 | 782 | 176 | 286 | 28 | 13 | 358 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 117 | 102 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 339 | 451 | 790 | 196 | 323 | 28 | 7 | 347 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 117 | 99 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 319 | 364 | 683 | 162 | 279 | 31 | 12 | 309 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 131 | 112 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 267 | 241 | 508 | 98 | 213 | 34 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 96 | 78 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 274 | 179 | 453 | 64 | 178 | 36 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 74 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 257 | 242 | 499 | 76 | 197 | 19 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 181 | 158 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 269 | 285 | 553 | 95 | 206 | 23 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 46 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 356 | 361 | 717 | 167 | 257 | 35 | 9 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 117 | 104 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 287 | 365 | 652 | 154 | 277 | 35 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 117 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 279 | 529 | 115 | 260 | 38 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 190 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 279 | 247 | 526 | 105 | 208 | 35 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 227 | 181 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 62 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 341 | 309 | 650 | 133 | 228 | 27 | 13 | 309 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 224 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 265 | 268 | 533 | 85 | 213 | 22 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 255 | 217 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 313 | 332 | 645 | 120 | 231 | 18 | 9 | 292 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 163 | 140 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 300 | 336 | 636 | 136 | 296 | 35 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 163 | 136 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 356 | 434 | 790 | 191 | 314 | 28 | 9 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 117 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 279 | 529 | 115 | 254 | 38 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 117 | 99 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 319 | 364 | 683 | 162 | 279 | 31 | 12 | 309 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 189 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 279 | 249 | 527 | 106 | 198 | 35 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 228 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 180 | 265 | 263 | 528 | 83 | 203 | 22 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 163 | 142 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 300 | 331 | 631 | 134 | 271 | 35 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 117 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 279 | 529 | 115 | 260 | 38 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 117 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 279 | 529 | 115 | 260 | 38 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 2% | 200 | 180 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 274 | 328 | 602 | 123 | 279 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 119 | 274 | 50 | 0 | 267 | 70 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 23% | 151 | 137 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 273 | 324 | 597 | 120 | 277 | 30 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 23% | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 269 | 317 | 586 | 116 | 273 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 68 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 312 | 548 | 125 | 238 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 58 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 612 | 114 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 38 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 234 | 310 | 544 | 124 | 236 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 58 | -24 | +0 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1018 | 890 | 160 | 27 | 4 | 21 | 76 | 313 | 39 | 12 | 5 | 180 | 274 | 290 | 564 | 110 | 245 | 31 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 200 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 274 | 289 | 563 | 109 | 246 | 31 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -24 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 117 PAwOBA .304 → .247 (−58)K% 30.8% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×0.968 | 17.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.042 | ×0.968 | 6.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | ×0.968 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.60% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .304 → .247; ISO .162 → .128; BABIP .279 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 117 PAwOBA .340 → .267 (−73)K% 28.2% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.27% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 3.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.19% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 20.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.25% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.36% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .340 → .267; ISO .196 → .142; BABIP .323 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 46 PAwOBA .358 → .305 (−53)K% 28.3% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.26% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 10.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 10.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 17.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 4.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 4.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .358 → .305; ISO .176 → .145; BABIP .286 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 181 PAwOBA .302 → .248 (−54)K% 18.8% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.78% | ÷1.064 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.01% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.52% | ÷0.989 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 2.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.04% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.58% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 86, K 113, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .302 → .248; ISO .137 → .104; BABIP .237 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 74 PAwOBA .262 → .221 (−42)K% 16.2% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.46% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.05% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 3.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.31% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 15.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .262 → .221; ISO .078 → .064; BABIP .216 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 131 PAwOBA .310 → .245 (−65)K% 27.5% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.48% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.74% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 9.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 4.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.57% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 16.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.63% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .245; ISO .142 → .109; BABIP .242 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Peoria Chiefs · 96 PAwOBA .294 → .226 (−68)K% 27.1% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.984 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.33% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 6.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 12.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .294 → .226; ISO .120 → .089; BABIP .208 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).