Player 689052 — OGILVIE

Player 689052— Fredericksburg Nationals

Age — —/— A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION172 act + 148 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .299 / .361

PA148

HR4

SB9

K%32

BB%7

BABIP313

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	—	A	WSH	—	172	146	37	4	2	5	10	61	9	21	7	253	339	411	750	158	390	35	6	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.3
YTD	—	A	WSH	—	172	140	41	5	2	6	16	43	9	21	7	293	400	486	886	193	376	25	9	379	148	+9	+1	+0	-3	+5	1.3
ROS	—	A	WSH	0%	148	133	30	4	1	4	10	47	4	9	2	226	299	361	660	135	312	32	7	292	81	-3	+1	+0	-3	+4	-0.1
ROS	—	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		312	—	—	270	65	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	—	A	WSH	—	172	147	37	4	2	5	10	61	9	21	7	252	339	408	748	156	386	35	6	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.3
TOT	—	A	WSH	—	320	279	67	8	3	9	20	108	13	30	9	240	321	387	708	147	352	34	6	305	92	-3	+2	+0	-6	+9	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	WSH	0%	398	358	80	12	3	10	27	124	10	16	4	223	296	358	654	134	309	31	7	295	84	-7	+2	+0	-7	+11	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	WSH	0%	462	416	93	14	3	12	32	141	11	18	4	224	296	358	654	135	308	31	7	297	86	-7	+2	+0	-8	+13	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	WSH	0%	506	454	103	16	4	13	35	152	12	19	5	227	299	366	665	139	307	30	7	299	87	-7	+2	+0	-9	+14	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	WSH	0%	537	482	110	17	4	14	38	160	12	20	5	228	301	367	668	139	306	30	7	300	88	-7	+2	+0	-10	+15	0.0
2031	25	MLB	WSH	0%	558	500	114	18	4	15	40	167	13	21	5	228	302	370	672	142	306	30	7	301	88	-7	+2	+0	-10	+16	0.1
2027	25	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		309	—	—	276	70	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2028	25	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		308	—	—	280	72	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2029	25	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		307	—	—	282	74	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2030	25	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		306	—	—	283	75	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2031	25	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		306	—	—	284	75	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2609	2343	530	81	19	68	182	791	62	103	25	226	299	364	663	138	308	30	7	298	86	-40	+11	+0	-47	+74	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	132	20	5	17	45	197	15	26	6	226	298	365	662	139	308	30	7	298	86	-10	+3	+0	-12	+18	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,781	72	106	226	295	364	-32	+0	1.4	1.6
	/162	664	17	25	226	295	364	-7.7	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Player 689052 (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	240/321/387	147	352	9	30	34%	6%	92	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jonathan Davis 2017 · A	25	40→50	46→45	54→55	44	199/284/331	132	279	13	21	32%	8%	72	-0.2	219/298/335	116	289	10	19	26%	8%	79	+0.3	221/302/335	114	287	10	20	25%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	39→40	45→50	54→55	44	194/276/317	123	270	12	18	31%	8%	66	-0.6	209/287/354	145	287	18	23	32%	8%	79	+0.3	198/279/346	148	268	20	26	32%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Eli Iorg 2008 · A	25	45→49	47→50	59→55	37	226/266/369	143	303	14	24	30%	4%	73	-0.1	228/263/347	119	315	11	17	30%	4%	66	-0.6	237/268/356	118	321	12	19	29%	3%	66	-0.5
✕Brewer Hicklen 2021 · A	25	44→43	49→55	56→60	35	216/274/360	145	328	17	25	38%	5%	76	+0.0	202/278/362	160	316	20	32	40%	8%	78	+0.2	219/291/395	177	297	25	40	34%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Mario Lisson 2009 · AA	25	43→49	44→55	54→55	41	215/265/332	117	274	12	21	26%	5%	63	-0.8	209/255/341	132	274	15	15	29%	5%	63	-0.9	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Cody Strait 2007 · A	24	43→48	47→55	57→55	40	218/276/358	140	287	14	26	29%	5%	76	+0.0	215/263/354	139	284	14	19	28%	5%	69	-0.4	220/264/345	125	286	11	17	27%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Barrett Barnes 2015 · A	24	42→48	44→45	51→50	42	210/273/325	116	283	12	14	30%	7%	66	-0.6	223/289/345	122	293	11	12	26%	7%	77	+0.1	215/293/346	131	300	13	7	30%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Elijah Dunham 2022 · A	24	44→42	47→50	55→60	45	219/291/363	144	292	14	21	29%	8%	83	+0.6	212/283/362	150	289	16	27	31%	8%	80	+0.4	202/275/357	155	275	17	29	32%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Allen Córdoba 2021 · A	25	48→53	41→45	53→55	40	231/281/330	100	302	7	20	26%	5%	69	-0.4	233/301/351	118	292	10	16	23%	6%	84	+0.6	231/305/357	125	285	11	18	22%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2015 · A	25	43→41	48→50	51→50	45	219/286/364	145	276	16	14	27%	7%	82	+0.5	206/262/337	131	281	14	9	31%	6%	64	-0.8	165/214/276	112	225	13	5	33%	5%	24	-1.5
✕Travis Witherspoon 2014 · AA	25	42→47	46→50	55	41	213/265/342	128	282	14	24	29%	6%	66	-0.6	199/255/311	112	279	12	20	31%	7%	54	-1.4	180/240/279	100	253	12	22	33%	7%	36	-1.5
✕Andrew Cain 2015 · A	25	41→37	47→50	57→50	39	210/262/346	136	286	14	14	31%	6%	66	-0.6	190/248/314	124	316	13	9	41%	7%	52	-1.6	152/215/272	120	256	14	8	44%	7%	26	-2.1
✕Lane Adams 2015 · AA	25	45→46	44→50	56→60	42	223/276/340	117	289	11	27	26%	6%	70	-0.3	228/280/358	130	308	14	31	29%	6%	76	+0.1	228/279/363	136	311	16	36	31%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Alex Castellanos 2011 · A	24	44→49	45→55	52→50	35	213/265/350	137	310	11	15	34%	4%	69	-0.4	221/282/382	161	300	17	15	31%	6%	85	+0.7	210/277/374	164	282	19	17	32%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Justin Dean 2021 · A	24	47→49	43→45	58→65	44	222/293/335	113	314	10	23	31%	8%	76	+0.1	203/280/315	112	322	11	27	37%	8%	66	-0.6	232/303/321	89	344	6	48	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Mike Mooney 2008 · A	25	43→49	43→50	54→55	37	213/258/325	112	295	11	17	31%	5%	59	-1.1	210/252/346	136	281	14	15	30%	4%	62	-0.9	204/244/356	152	263	17	15	29%	4%	58	-0.7
✕Phillip Ervin 2017 · AA	25	42→50	46→50	55	48	211/289/341	130	257	13	25	23%	8%	77	+0.1	227/293/361	134	285	14	22	24%	7%	83	+0.6	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕John Shelby 2011 · AA	25	42→52	48→55	53→55	38	216/255/359	144	280	15	20	29%	5%	66	-0.6	219/256/376	157	281	18	11	28%	4%	72	-0.2	215/247/390	175	262	20	7	27%	3%	68	-0.4
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A	23	46→45	42→50	56→65	43	219/288/328	109	304	8	24	29%	7%	72	-0.2	218/277/322	104	307	8	25	30%	6%	66	-0.6	227/296/370	142	284	15	55	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Scott Heineman 2017 · A	24	46→56	43→45	51→50	42	222/289/341	118	312	10	17	30%	7%	76	+0.1	239/297/355	116	328	11	14	29%	6%	83	+0.6	257/317/388	131	330	15	16	25%	6%	97	+0.8