Brady Hill — OGILVIE

Brady Hill P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%21.1%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	7	3	2	1	0%	1.0	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	18.00	10.94	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	7	3	2	1	0%	1.0	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	18.00	16.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	38	159	30	16	7	0%	1.1	10.0%	13.0%	-3.0%	6.5%	5.45	7.47	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	38	159	30	16	7	0%	1.1	10.0%	13.0%	-3.0%	6.5%	5.45	7.47	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	38	159	30	16	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	4.4%	5.45	5.18	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	42	187	49	20	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.5%	4.71	4.96	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	42	187	49	20	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.5%	4.71	4.96	—
2024	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	42	187	49	20	5	0%	1.1	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	2.7%	4.71	3.74	—
2025	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	41	0	46	216	65	37	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	20.2%	2.1%	1.4%	6.11	4.54	—
2025	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	41	0	46	216	65	37	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	20.2%	2.1%	1.4%	6.11	4.54	—
2025	24	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	41	0	46	216	65	37	2	0%	1.1	30.1%	17.1%	13.0%	0.9%	6.11	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	41	172	48	25	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.5%	5.6%	3.1%	4.20	5.04	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	41	172	48	25	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.5%	5.6%	3.1%	4.20	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	WSH	34	0	39	160	46	23	4	0%	1.1	28.7%	14.4%	14.4%	2.5%	3.49	3.87	—
2026	25	AA RAW	WSH	2	0	2	12	2	2	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	3.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	251	54	45	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.1%	3.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.54	-0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	54	43	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	17.5%	4.2%	3.0%	5.47	5.48	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	WSH	25	0	26	110	24	20	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.1%	3.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.54	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	34	27	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	17.5%	4.2%	3.0%	5.47	5.48	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	57	47	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.50	5.13	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	150	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.50	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		151	0	167	741	141	118	26	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.22	5.45	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	0	200	886	169	141	31	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.22	5.45	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	21.1%	19.1%	2.9%	—	5.51	21.6%	3.8%	118	-0.19	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	88
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	87
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	85
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	83
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	83
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	82
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	82
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	81
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	81
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	81
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	81
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	81
Blake Rivera R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	25	SU	4.78	20.9%	19.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	179	81
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	21.4%	18.2%	1.13	5.57
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15