Doug Kirkland prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Doug Kirkland P Columbia Fireflies

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 193 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%23.9%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	0	2	13	6	4	0	0%	0.8	46.2%	30.8%	15.4%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	0	2	13	6	4	0	0%	0.8	46.2%	30.8%	15.4%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	3	0	2	13	6	4	0	0%	0.8	46.2%	30.8%	15.4%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2024	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	31	0	42	175	58	32	2	0%	1.3	24.5%	21.6%	2.9%	1.5%	2.16	4.56	—
2024	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	31	0	42	175	58	32	2	0%	1.3	24.5%	21.6%	2.9%	1.5%	2.16	4.56	—
2024	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	31	0	42	175	58	32	2	0%	1.3	33.1%	18.3%	14.9%	1.1%	2.16	3.24	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.9%	17.2%	6.6%	2.9%	5.25	5.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	36	0	38	158	38	26	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	5.14	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	15	0	16	68	16	11	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	16	11	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	4.76	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	137	25	0%	1.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	2.9%	5.15	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		34	0	44	188	49	42	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	22.2%	3.8%	1.4%	2.25	4.46	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	855	222	190	12	0%	1.3	26.0%	22.2%	3.8%	1.4%	2.25	4.46	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Doug Kirkland (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	23.9%	17.2%	2.9%	—	5.14	24.0%	7.6%	38	-0.11	—	—	—
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	89
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	84
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	84
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	83
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	83
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	82
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	82
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	82
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	24.0%	16.7%	1.13	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30