Jose Dicochea P Lansing Lugnuts
+0.2 WAR
Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP
SIERA
K%20.5%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.3%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201918ROKAZL Athletics Green10922109141438.7%16.1%3.9%10.386.51-0.4
202120AStockton Ports651574238423.0%12.8%5.9%11.056.01-0.2
202221AStockton Ports54951101209.64
202322A+Lansing Lugnuts2219893838857617.3%17.2%1.9%3.844.88+0.3
202423A+Lansing Lugnuts26169041210051918.1%14.5%2.8%5.184.92+0.3
202524AStockton Ports25139141095391117.1%11.2%3.1%4.864.77+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
202625A+Lansing Lugnuts203143202.70
ROS25MLBOAK16169038278431120.5%11.2%3.0%4.804.80+0.4
2026 Total25MLBOAK9439681451120.5%11.3%2.9%4.734.63+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202726MLBOAK18189741186441220.9%10.8%3.0%4.734.72+0.6
202827MLBOAK181810142589451321.0%10.6%3.0%4.694.69+0.7
202928MLBOAK181810142790451321.0%10.5%3.0%4.684.70+0.7
203029MLBOAK18189941887441320.9%10.5%3.1%4.704.73+0.6
203130MLBOAK17179640584431320.7%10.6%3.1%4.764.79+0.5
203231MLBOAK17179239180421320.5%10.7%3.2%4.824.87+0.4
203332MLBOAK16168937576411220.2%10.9%3.3%4.904.95+0.3
203433MLBOAK15158535871401219.9%11.0%3.4%4.995.05+0.1
203534MLBOAK15158134067381219.6%11.2%3.5%5.095.16-0.0
203635MLBOAK14147632168341221.2%10.7%3.6%5.045.01+0.1
203736MLBOAK13137130062331120.7%10.9%3.7%5.105.14-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career966631914532512134017.3%14.7%2.8%5.455.01+1.0
/ 200 IP60412009111571342517.3%14.7%2.8%5.455.01+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jose Dicochea (OGILVIE) 4.80 20.5%11.2%3.0% 4.70 21.0%10.4%299 -0.10
Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP 25 SP- 4.88 17.6%11.2%3.4%.282 9.12 19.7%7.1%18 +4.24 4.88 105 93
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP 25 SP- 4.90 20.2%12.1%3.6%.284 3.50 22.7%14.3%84 -1.40 3.50 368 90
Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP 25 SP- 4.03 19.7%10.6%2.3%.256 3.80 18.2%4.1%73 -0.23 3.80 154 89
Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP 25 SP- 4.71 16.2%10.3%3.0%.290 4.81 11.8%0.5%58 +0.10 4.71 160 89
Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP 25 SP- 4.93 19.3%11.8%3.6%.286 5.22 16.8%4.4%61 +0.29 4.24 367 87
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP 25 SP- 5.02 19.7%13.2%3.5%.319 4.03 23.9%13.7%166 -0.99 3.98 481 87
Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP 25 SP- 4.46 16.9%11.4%2.5%.303 4.46 195 87
Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP 25 SP- 5.09 15.2%10.8%3.5%.274 4.93 13.1%-0.5%132 -0.16 4.10 218 87
J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP 24 SP- 5.33 17.9%13.9%3.6%.285 4.26 26.3%15.2%225 -1.07 4.07 530 87
David Lebron R 2026 · 4.30 FIP 25 SP- 4.30 18.6%14.2%1.8%.336 5.70 26.7%12.0%62 +1.40 4.30 144 87
Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP 25 SP- 4.51 21.8%13.3%2.9%.290 3.41 178 87
Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.88 FIP 26 SP- 3.88 18.1%11.0%1.7%.280 3.12 24.5%17.9%97 -0.76 3.12 178 84
Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP 25 SP- 4.32 16.9%8.6%2.8%.338 3.05 22.4%12.3%71 -1.27 3.05 176 84
Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP 25 SP- 4.57 18.3%9.2%3.4%.337 3.27 22.7%12.7%50 -1.30 3.27 339 84
Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP 25 SP- 4.46 15.4%10.3%2.5%.306 5.12 14.4%3.5%146 +0.66 3.37 353 84
Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP 25 SP- 4.74 17.2%12.9%2.7%.251 4.33 21.9%12.7%98 -0.41 3.10 322 84
Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.28 FIP 25 SP- 5.28 18.5%14.8%3.4%.299 4.06 21.0%6.9%15 -1.22 4.06 249 84
Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP 26 SP- 4.43 17.5%10.9%2.6%.393 4.26 9.2%3.9%53 -0.17 4.26 166 83
Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP 27 SP- 3.98 18.4%8.9%2.4%.315 5.24 13.8%4.9%18 +1.26 3.98 115 83
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP 25 SP- 5.38 17.4%13.7%3.7%.277 6.22 20.6%10.6%12 +0.84 4.02 262 83

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Arb-2$0.9M+0.6$3M+$2M
2031Arb-3$0.9M+0.5$2M+$1M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.9M+0.4$2M+$1.0M
2033Ext / FA-deal$3M+0.3$1M-$2M
2034Ext / FA-deal$5M+0.1$0.5M-$5M
2035Ext / FA-deal$7M
Totals $18M $9M -$9M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.