Trevor McDonald

P San Francisco Giants

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX5 levels	24	20	89	4.25	3.54	20.5%	8.0%	1.5	K 16.4% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.04
2025	24	MIX2 levels	32	26	157	4.98	4.21	22.9%	9.3%	1.3	K 20.0% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.61
2026	25	MIX2 levels	19	18	85	5.17	3.85	18.3%	9.8%	1.1	K 17.8% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.89
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	8	8	48	4.43	4.46	18.9%	8.6%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBSF	23	23	136	4.33	4.36	19.2%	8.6%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBSF	23	23	136	4.38	4.43	19.3%	8.6%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.9M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$5M2030Arb-4$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs51

FB Velo38

K%24

Whiff%22

CompsJonathan Pintaro (age 26) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.43

FIP4.46

K%18.9%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

SL (4%)

SI (39%)

CU (51%)

FB (39%)

CH-0.6 (6%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$6M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	3	3	4	16	8	2	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%	37.5%	0.0%	2.25	0.46	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	3	3	4	16	8	2	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%	37.5%	0.0%	2.25	0.60	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	70	316	71	34	4	88%	4.4	15.7%	13.0%	2.7%	1.3%	4.09	4.14	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	70	316	71	34	4	88%	4.4	22.5%	10.8%	11.7%	1.3%	4.09	3.27	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	101	430	120	42	4	34%	3.5	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	0.6%	2.31	3.35	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	101	430	120	42	4	34%	3.5	27.9%	9.8%	18.1%	0.9%	2.31	2.49	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	0.8%	1.33	2.58	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	0.5%	1.33	1.92	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	16.4%	8.2%	8.1%	2.3%	4.25	4.04	+0.9
2024	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	16.4%	8.2%	8.1%	2.3%	4.25	4.04	+0.9
2024	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	20.5%	8.0%	12.4%	2.1%	4.25	3.54	+1.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.9%	4.98	4.61	+0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.9%	4.98	4.61	+0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.3%	4.98	4.21	+1.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	2.0%	5.17	3.89	+1.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	2.0%	5.17	3.89	+1.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	1.9%	5.17	3.85	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	16	88	380	72	26	8	89%	4.9	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	2.1%	4.38	3.53	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	8	8	48	203	38	17	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.6%	10.4%	2.7%	4.43	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	144	606	117	52	17	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.6%	10.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.48	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	144	606	117	52	18	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.55	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	137	578	109	51	18	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.69	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	129	544	99	49	18	100%	6.1	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	120	507	89	48	18	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.12	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	136	574	110	49	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.6%	10.7%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	136	574	111	50	15	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.38	4.43	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	130	549	104	48	16	100%	5.9	18.9%	8.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.56	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	20	20	122	515	94	47	16	100%	6.1	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.64	4.76	+0.0
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	114	481	84	45	16	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.0%	3.2%	4.84	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	123	728	3079	576	266	85	98%	5.8	18.7%	8.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.50	4.13	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	158	73	23	98%	5.8	18.7%	8.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.50	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		137	104	555	2397	449	233	52	76%	4.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.0%	2.2%	3.96	3.94	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	864	162	84	19	76%	4.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.0%	2.2%	3.96	3.94	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor McDonald (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	18.9%	8.6%	2.7%	—	4.57	19.1%	10.5%	424	+0.11	—	—	—
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	77
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	77
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	76
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	75
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	75
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Jason Alexander R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP-	3.96	17.1%	8.2%	2.3%	.380	4.28	16.2%	8.5%	150	+0.32	2.08	840	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	74
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	116	18.7%	8.7%	1.15	4.61
Mike Mason ('82-'88, 4 WAR*)	3.0	121	19.2%*	9.3%*	1.10*	4.57*
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Ed Rakow ('60-'67, 3 WAR*)	3.8	127	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.22*	4.66*
Rolando Arrojo ('02)	3.5	140	16.8%	8.4%	1.07	4.55
Jose Contreras ('13)	5.9	147	17.5%	8.4%	1.01	4.57
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89